$SPX Targets and VIX Update - Prepare for a Wild Ride!

SPX is testing resistance, and a surprise plunge is likely setting up for one day next week.  The SPX Cycle looks particularly weak in late February, and a lower low is probable.

VIX did, in fact, find resistance in the low 30's, and is now at historically significant support.  The VIX Cycle shows a spike up to complete the brown arrow Cycle high in late February.

Prepare for a wild ride!

30min Chart

January 17th, 2016:

"The action in VIX recently has been relatively quiet though, and VIX tested 30 last week which historically has been a significant resistance. Short term support is around 20.

There is no panic currently."

Weekly Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

XIV - Testing Turquoise Support

It was an interesting reaction to the turquoise support today for XIV.  This is a significant support for XIV, and should create a floor for now.  VIX was quiet.

A sideways shuffle is to be expected for weeks next to burn some time with mild short term upside.  During this period red line resistance is likely to be tested several times.  February Cycles looks weak until later February so downside in February is possible.

It will get more exciting with some time once XIV is in a position to finally clear the red resistance.      

4hour Chart

 

$VIX - Cycle Update

The VIX Cycle predicted the spike up to 50.  In the Cycle, VIX is likely working it's way towards the brown arrow Cycle lower high.  The action in VIX recently has been relatively quiet though, and VIX tested 30 last week which historically has been a significant resistance.  Short term support is around 20.    

There is no panic currently. Overall the VIX Cycle does show the brown arrow lower high forming, but continues to decline from August with the Cycle showing lower lows (below 12) for VIX later this year.      

Weekly Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

XIV - Before/After - Model Continues

XIV formed the high in November at the price and time as anticipated according to the model. 

Since November XIV has declined in a matter consistent with the model, and is approaching the price and time identified for a major low according to the model.  The measured target has very nearly been reached and major turquoise support is just below.

This bottom is anticipated to be a major bottom with the model showing strong upside ahead.    

The SPX Cycle bottoms January 13th, 2016 which is also consistent with this analysis. 

2hour Chart

Before:

October 8, 2015 analysis:

"Overall XIV should rise to test the September high. A November high for XIV is anticipated." 

1997 Hong Kong Hang Seng Crash:

$SPX - Major Support

SPX failed on December 30th, the date specified by the SPX Cycle analysis. 

However, SPX is trading just above the major support level identified.  The next low is due January 13th.

2hour