$SPX - VIX Spike Implications

SPX plunged and met the minimum target area both in terms of price, and on time.  However, the market still may decline lower this week.  Several important lines of geometry rest below.  Best to wait for further evidence of a low forming.

The behaviour in the VIX suggests a short term low relatively soon though.  Probably this week. 

Large Cycle updates will be coming shortly.  

30min Chart

 

VIX spiked above the white trendline.  A spike such as this typically suggests a short term low for SPX is nearby.

However, the longer term picture suggests a major crisis is just beginning.  Not serious yet, but the critical red and white trendlines are approaching.

Daily Chart

$SPX - Significant Dip Next

SPX has been churning sideways for weeks.  Momentum has deteriorated, therefore, SPX is likely ready for a more significant dip next in the short term.  Equal timing boxes have been used to estimate timing to the next short term low and high.

The bigger picture large Cycle suggests that the market is at an important peak, and the outlook is bearish overall for months into April. 

60min Chart

UVXY is likely to pop initially over the pink trendline. 

It is anticipated to be choppy and move much higher into April overall.  The bounces should become larger as time progresses into April. 

15min Chart

 

UVXY - February to April Targets

The geometry reiterates that UVXY is at or near a low.  It appears to be getting ready to pop initially over the pink trendline. 

Next, it likely will be choppy and trend higher into April overall.  The bounces should become larger as time progresses into April.  VIX has been moving higher for over 3 weeks already.

30min Chart

$SPX - February to April Cycle Projection

The Deja Vu Cycle specifically predicted the surge up in January.  The next major move in the Deja Vu Cycle in the coming months is a plunge to test the red trendline and probably overshoot it. 

The following estimated projection for the next several months is based on the Cycle below.

The Deja Vu Cycle clearly shows a bear market ahead with initial measured target at approximately 1025 SPX. As well, the Cycle suggests lower lows after that target is reached.  

2hour Chart

A detailed view of the topping process in the Deja Vu Cycle is shown below.  SPX is likely near point C in the Deja Vu Cycle.

The Cycle suggests that the topping process will be characterized by weeks of sideways and choppy trading with a scary dip down to point P as shown on the chart below.

Larger view of the Deja Vu Cycle:

Daily Chart

 

Current Deja Vu Cycle for SPY:

Weekly Chart

$SPX - Bear Market Ahead!

SPX is struggling at the broadening formation line (turquoise).  The topping process will likely be characterized by weeks of sideways and choppy trading with a scary dip in the middle.

The Deja Vu Cycle specifically predicted the surge up in January.  The next major move in the Deja Vu Cycle in the coming months is a plunge to test the red trendline. 

The Deja Vu Cycle clearly shows a bear market ahead with initial measured target at approximately 1025 SPX.  As well, the Cycle suggests lower lows after that target is reached.   

2hour Chart

A detailed view of the topping process in the Deja Vu Cycle is shown below.   SPX is likely near point C in the Deja Vu Cycle.

The Cycle suggests that the topping process will be characterized by weeks of sideways and choppy trading with a scary dip in the middle as shown on the chart below.

Larger view of the Deja Vu Cycle:

Daily Chart

Current Deja Vu Cycle for SPY:

Weekly Chart

Exact Geometry suggested a low for UVXY which has held.  UVXY has been climbing up along the yellow fork.  Both UVXY and VIX have started to trend higher in recent weeks. 

2hour Chart