http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/12/spx-final-surge-up-next.html
Upside is still possible and a topping process may take some time to play out for much of this week. The next step will be to watch for signs of waning momentum.
Nevertheless, all minimum conditions have been met according to the sharp rally phase of the Deja Vu Cycle. Caution is necessary going forward.
30min Chart
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteWondering your thought on the VIX/VXX target on this downtrend.
And your thoughts on this big O 1500+ level for sp, think it reachable before the decline?
Thanks!
I have charts coming for VIX soon. After the unusual VIX drop last week, it will likely take some time to stabilize.
Delete1500 probably out of reach for S&P. 1480-1490 may be possible, but I'm not counting on it.
I'm waiting to short.
Hi SC
DeleteWondering which vehicle would you be using to short this time?
Thanks!
I plan to short S&P, and take a position in UVXY. I have charts and explanation coming as to how and why I plan to position a certain way.
DeleteJan 4th showed up as a high on some of my time cycles. Jan 9th is another candidate for a high. Maybe that is when I'll short.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteThanks for your analysis so far. Awesome work.
Thanks!
Thank you.
DeleteI have the high around the 14th and will short via TZA since its in very oversold territory, just waiting for a last gasp spx mmove higher. I likely will be short either tomorrow at the close or Friday to be safe. Uvxy will just steal my money but if vix futures takes a major move down towards cash vix, then I'll probably take a shot at uvxy for a trade.
ReplyDeleteSuspect SPX may rise today/tomorrow and then about a 30 point dip this week around Thursday.
DeleteThe market should rebound well from a dip anyways so therefore not worried about missing much at this point in time.
DeleteI agree with you, but the internal fight I am having is fear of missing out on the big move. Right now, it still feels like a opportunity to short, but my models call for a high on the 14th give or take a couple days, so Thursday would be fine.
DeleteI think we'll see a dip around Thurs but also rebound. So your date may be pretty close.
DeleteThe main point is that we'll likely spend some more time with a topping process. Maybe we are mid way through a topping process now.
For anyone interested - Forex Kong is now exposing more of his anaysis secrets as well the tools he uses for trading.
ReplyDeleteforexkong.com
SC, have you entered uvxy yet? are you taking a full position?
ReplyDeleteLooking at it very closely right now. Considering taking a half position today to start with.
DeleteI've gone short via TZA ($12.10) and UVXY ($14.65). I fear I may be early though so setting my stop on TZA at the low of the day ($12.06) and UVXY (14.40).
DeleteHi SS76
Deletewonder why you not wait till atleast the 11th or 14th your model date to go shorts. Did something change in your model?
Thanks!
hi. As I've posted, I'm fearful of missing the big drop so I want to start taking positions, even if I'm MAYBE a bit early. Just cause my correlation dates call for the 14th being a high, its not a guarantee. The market is looking exhausted and there are some pretty big gaps to fill, so I am suspecting that tomorrow or Friday is when the plunge might begin.
DeleteSo in saying that, I did get stopped out of TZA at $12.06 and decided to sell UVXY at $15.05. I think I will reload at the end of the day on both DEPENDING on where they trade at (i.e if they both drop, then I will buy both, if neither drop and rise from here, then I will wait for a bounce or play closer to the 14th date I had in mind).
DeleteInitially the model suggests a drop to test the red trendline for SPX around 1380. UVXY could reach around $25 roughly on that initial move.
ReplyDeleteStill early as the topping process may not be complete yet.
DeleteSC did you take a position today ?
ReplyDeleteNo, not yet.
ReplyDeleteSC what are your thoughts on the VIX bouncing today?
ReplyDeleteFirst signs of life on the VIX today, and probably at or near a low. A lot of complacency in this market by my model.
DeleteSC,
DeleteThanks do you think it is telling us that stock are preparing to drop?
It is a little early, but generally a green VIX with a green market is a warning.
DeleteThough the VIX behaviour has been very unusual with the large drop last week so that makes it more complex to interpret the daily movement.
DeleteMy thoughts as well, the question is how big of a drop?
ReplyDeleteI'm inclined to let things play out some more since it is slow at the moment. Once the topping process is complete though my model suggests a drop to 1380 or so initially.
DeleteI have a low of roughly 1320 for March 4/5.
DeleteGut tells me TZA at $12.10, so I've taken the plunge. Going to hold this now and any trading I do will be at support levels and reloading as i want to ride the trend lower. That has always been my problem, trying to trade AGAINST the trend, so hopefully I rectify this by moving with the trend for once.
DeleteI am in agreement with your lows. 1310-1320 Although I am looking for the low to be a little earlier than your date. Approx feb 25th time frame.
ReplyDeleteI am long in the markets, waiting for a 5th wave up by friday some time.
Good luck every one
Risky in my opinion to be long considering the lows you are targeting, particularly as you'd better hope your count is labelled correctly. Wouldn't you rather stay in cash until you get confirmation of a downtrend rather than be long?
DeleteThe low VIX would also scare be right now to be long.
DeleteI am very aware of the vix at historical lows, like all indicators they can and will get stretched.
ReplyDeleteMy indicators are still on a buy signal for the next day or so with the earning season in full season. Looking for a minimum move up to the 1474-76 level with over night gaps up. Top target 1494-1497
ReplyDeleteBest of luck every one.
Thank you, that is possible. The market has been hanging in there, and typically SPX tops a few days after VIX bottoms anyways.
DeleteLet's see how this plays out - should be interesting.
All the best!
brave M, you holding your long for like 10 more points higher or may be max 30 points if it happen and with a target of over 150+ downside that can start anytime now?
DeleteIts not about being brave. Its having confidence plus the gut instincts to go with ones plan. As Jack Welch X ceo of General Electric use to say, if all fails, go with your gut instincts. I call it, the intuition within. I will talk more about more about this in the coming days.
DeleteAll the best everyone !!
Well Mr. Myers, you certainly are lookin good so far. Should have stuck with my high on Jan 14th starting to think. Still think I'm ok with TZA but will watch closely.
ReplyDeleteTZA looks ready to lead the market...We'll see. Placing stop at $12.05.
DeleteBought 50% UVXY at $14.41.
ReplyDeleteOne of the reasons I took the position is that I've been waiting for low volume on UVXY and saw the first day of low volume yesterday.
ReplyDeleteDifficult to be exact, but I think most of the "fat" is trimmed off UVXY. I'll be looking to add next few days as well.
I am expecting some short covering to help propel this market higher. 1474- 76 level today.
ReplyDeleteGood luck every one!
We do have a higher low on the VIX today. If VIX bottomed yesterday, then SPX could top next day or two.
ReplyDeleteI think SPX may be a little weak today, but positive tomorrow.
Charts and analysis coming for VIX. After a number of quiet years with low volatility, a bull market in VIX is starting now imo.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
DeleteIs it coming this weekend for VIX chart and analysis?
wondering your take on HLF as well? seems to be the hot today with two hedge fund manager.
Thanks!
VIX analysis coming tomorrow.
DeleteHLF has been an interesting story. I am curious to see how it plays out, but have no real interest in any position either way.
As a matter of fact, due to my Deja Vu Cycle outlook, I don't want to have any long exposure to the market or any stock for months.
The HLF battle seems to be over egos more than anything else.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to your VIX review. Will it be a medium to long term view analysis?
Thanks!
VIX analysis for the year 2013.
DeleteAwesome, looking forward to it.
Deletewondering if you plan to add more next week on UVXY or start your SPX puts position?
Thanks!
Yes, during the next day or two will add to UVXY, and initiale a short postition on SPX. I figured that the VIX should bottom first, and then SPX top.
DeleteSPX may have one last push, but think it is close, and momentum is waning.
Scaling out of my longs at the 1464ish here. I do not like how the market is reacting here. I am off for a ski trip. Do not want to worry about the markets. Will not go short JUST YET, SOON thou.
ReplyDeleteAll the best every one!
I bet we have a gap up over night again with possible new lows on the vix. The BOTS, computer programs are running loose taking out stops for the bulls and bears before they finally tank this market into later feb. I still see 1474-76 level which I thought was going to happen today, but will be delayed until tomorrow. I took off some longs earlier with a runner on third base.
DeleteGood luck every one!
Margins hiked...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-10/russell-bubble-about-pop-interactive-brokers-hikes-small-cap-margins-100
UVXY have fallen from 28 to 14.35 this year!!! Not saying for one minute they are cheap down here but WOW you need to have balls of steel to play in this stock.
ReplyDeleteThats an animal I stay clear from. Very dangerous, although SC seems to have a good grasp with it.
DeleteSC any further thoughts on your end. With respect to new highs in the markets.
ReplyDeleteMy model is quite bearish during the first half of 2013. However, it is a larger scale model that does not predict exact turning prices either. I think the SPX rally is just about out of time. So it could end at any time now, but I am open to the idea of it reaching as much as 1490 before turning down. I'm not counting on that either though.
DeleteMainly now I'm planning to look for a spot to short into strength.
There are warning signs starting. NDX with Apple continues to be soft. VIX holding today. RLX is weak. BAC is weak etc...
ReplyDeleteWells Fargo will be coming out with their report after hours, this may propel the market up tomorrow morning. Maybe a good time to buy some short instruments tomorrow morning with the possible spike in the markets.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/tom-demark-sell-around-the-world-KdBPeJbXQXqvlShFYHL7Jw.html
ReplyDeleteTom Demark has a sell for U rope He will issue a sell for the US if we get a new high tomorrow. Possible blow off to 1492
Good luck every one
Bert Dohmen (who is generally wrong) is bearish, Faber (who is generally right) is bearish, McClellan is bearish....in fact its hard to find anyone who is bullish these days!
DeleteMaybe that's why the mkt is going up...
My feeling is that retail investors are bullish.
DeleteYes, many "gurus" are bearish. They may not be bearish enough. So in that sense the contrarian view may be for a larger decline.
Shorted SPX at 1472.
ReplyDeleteIt might still be a little early, but I think time is running out. The Cycle predicted the sharp rally, and once that phase completes, then it predicts an abrupt drop "out of the blue".
DeleteThe limitation of this Cycle is that it won't predict exact prices, but it should be getting close in time and price.
DeleteGood Calls SC I am out from my longs first thing this morning.
DeleteI finally just decided to go short. It may be a little early, but whenever it feels a "little early" the timing is often just right.
DeleteSo time will tell.
Boy, do I wish I could say that. Usually when it feels a "little early" to me, it turns out to be a "lot early".
DeleteBought the rest UVXY at $14.52.
ReplyDeleteI never did get stopped out of my TZA yesterday since I didn't set my stop, so still holding my $12.10 buy. SC, I think you will do will on UVXY at this juncture, I just can't stomach holding it.
ReplyDeleteSo tough to peg a bottom on UVXY when it has been grinding down day after day. Having said that the VIX looks firmer and is extremely low.
DeleteSC, what is your first sell target with UVXY? $18 or so?
DeleteFor UVXY at this point it is too early to tell whether it has actually bottomed.
DeleteIf the Cycle plays out, then S&P should decline to around 1380 after it tops. That could push UVXY up to around $25 roughly. The Cycle has been worked well in the past. So the question now, of course, is will it continue to do so.
We're going to find out.
I think TZA is more of a sure thing. RUT is overbought and TZA is oversold, it can take off providing a profit opportunity while UVXY finds its bottom, and perhaps if timing is right you can switch out of TZA to play UVXY....
DeleteMy index high correlation date showed the 14th, but as ZZ always said this could be a couple days off when using correlation charts, so that is why I took the short position I did. I'm sure its going to pay off nicely. My first target sell is $13.55. Depending on what is happening with the markets I may change my mind on that sell and hold it, but I want to trade at support/resistance points with the trend which I am betting will now turn down.
Financials are weak today, Crude is weak, RLX has been weak for a while. Subtle, but some signs starting to favour the bears.
ReplyDeletepitch fork gives 1498 target on the SnP500. Makes sense if we do go there - run stops, trigger buy orders then we MAY reverse hard.
ReplyDeletebut then again we could get a massive short squeeze that could push cash snp500 into low 1500's. thats another 25 to 50 points up from here.
Deletefolks, if you dont have a good grip on the timing - this mission becomes a suicide job.
Risk/Reward is good on the RUT here.
Deletefolks, if you dont have a good grip on the timing - this mission becomes a suicide job.
ReplyDeleteVery well put AM
I am going to wait until later today or Monday for some short instruments.
If this mornings highs are taken out, I will be going back long into Monday.
ReplyDeleteSC what is your stop on UVXY... of you don't have one you should quit trading NOW
ReplyDeleteI mean dont get me wrong - im mid term bearish but do i want to die in the process?
ReplyDeleteno thank you very much.
i've been wrong before for prolonged periods of time, eventually we got it, but at what price?
this reminds me very much of the 2012 beginning, gap up and run. Nobody was buying it, SC was calling for a crash, but prices just kept going higher and higher and higher...
I would rather give up a few points (profit) to make sure I am on the right trend.
DeleteWell I certainly would not let the market go much against me in this situation. Having said that my model predicted a sharp rally, and I am positioned for what the model suggests next.
ReplyDeleteThe market will decide as always, and it will decide soon!
Hi SC
DeleteLooking at your model, looks like quiet phase is next isnt it?
During quiet period, doesnt that mean no fear, wont UVXY holder get killed during that period? How come you dont wait till the quiet period almost over? before getting into UVXY?
Thanks!
Well the model calls for a hard drop first then the quiet period to follow. I will look to exit my trades on that hard drop. Then reload during the quiet period.
DeleteSo I generally agree.
Hi SC
DeleteThis quiet period, you plan to go on vacation?
Thanks!
Lol. I do think there will be boring spots.
DeleteSC, again I think you need a current trade position page, detailing your buy, sell, and stops.
ReplyDeleteThank you. Yes, I plan to make changes.
DeleteAgain, just to repeat my targets and that I am being more precise on time rather than price. I have always had the next high happening on Jan 14th, approx 1440 SPX (although now it looks higher).
ReplyDeleteThe trend turns down from here to March 5th, approx 1320, hangs around there until March 25th, then moves sharply higher to new highs targeting June 11th approximately 1500 -1510.
SS76 STOP reading my e mail ! LOLLOL
DeleteThanks SS76, so it is safe to sit on Cash and watch for now?
Deletem myers....email?
DeleteH2535, cash is a good idea rather than being long at this juncture. I'm personally short with TZA and feel confident about it being almost bottomed.
Deletess76 what is your target of tza
ReplyDeleteI would let VIX expire on Tuesday and see UVXY and VIX futures. May be a couple or three or so trading days later, the newly reset VIX futures at higher level (16 currently) comes down again to may be at 15 (that's a 10% haircut for UVXY and if so, it will be at under 13) and I may have a buy point by Friday or on Monday 21st. And this is all without a drop in cash VIX. Amazing? Yes, sure. Also, remember that most earnings are materialized around 25th January. Hopefully around Friday next week USD can find footings and start rising again. It's been declining for a few days now.
ReplyDeleteThank you, Tushar.
DeleteSC, I thank you very much for your spot on calls and analysis. I find them very helpful specially on the rallies. I put down my thoughts above based on prior patterns but my timing could be off too, I just tried to put different things in context for a better perspective. And that imagination is very much needed for special instruments like UVXY. On another note, I traded your deja vu call for a sharp rally and initiated long on 12/26 and BOY I found myself on the loosing end Friday night with a lot of sweat but had no option other than holding on and sure enough on Monday I was break even and made profits later on. I appreciate that call very much and I was lucky to spot it here in your article. No other blogs I read came close to mentioning it. So I know what value it holds. You know your stuff. I wish you luck in lot more learning that will make you even better as you gain experience. Keep it coming man, may God help us all being better.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteJust checking in, I take it your cycle analysis of equities is negative next week.
I'm going to review this weekend, but I sure think we are close to a turning point.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to your VIX analysis, wondering will it be out today still?
Thanks!
It's coming. I'm going to include a few extra charts and so I'll put it out on the weekend.
Delete