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Tuesday, January 22, 2013

$SPX - Scary Dip and Red Trendline

SPX could try to grind just above the yellow line, but watch for a scary dip soon to test near the lower yellow fork in any case. 

The Deja Vu Cycle has predicted all major moves in SPX going back for years.  SPX is nearing completion of the Sharp Rally Phase in the Deja Vu Cycle.  The Deja Vu Cycle will not pinpoint an exact top. 

Simply, the Cycle predicts that the next major move is a decline to test the red trendline.  At the current pace the red trendline is due to be tested late February/March at the latest.  

60min Chart
 
SPY Deja Vu Cycle:

3Day Chart















Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Daily Chart
 

111 comments:

  1. I'm holding shorts, and plan to take profit on the scary dip. Then, will look to reshort soon afterwards for a larger drop to the red trendline.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi SC,

    What about PMs, gold and silver?
    I would like to see your gold and silver analysis/comments for a long time but couldn't unfortunately.

    Could you share your Gold-Silver expectation if possible please?
    Thank you.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm most interested in large movements in any market or commodity.

      I expected large movements in 2011 for Gold/Silver and so covered them extensively. In contrast 2012 was a consolidation year and rather boring for the metals so I had little interest.

      However, I do follow them, and I have charts coming since I believe that larger movements are coming for Gold and Silver again this year.

      Delete
  3. SC, in your opinion, what would be the next move for gold and silver ? Thanks !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gold and Silver can rise as a safe haven while SPX declines.

      Delete
    2. But a week ago, you said that gold and silver may decline first with the SPX decline, they will eventually rise as a safe haven...
      Can you share more details about that ?

      Delete
    3. No, I think initially Gold/Silver can rise as a safe haven with SPX declining.

      When the largest drop occurs in SPX per the cycle, I believe Gold/Silver decline sharply as well.

      Delete
  4. UVXY... seriously how can you put your money in this risk is too great 30% down, even with large sell of your gonna lose alot of money... with stops in place you avoid this crap

    ReplyDelete
  5. Already SC you are down 25% and counting...When the dip to 1440 comes (questionable) You might be able to break even.

    I wish the best for you

    But, I'm glad you are posting your trades unlike in the past because their is accountability now. Regardless of what happens at least your words will hold weight at the end of the day.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Well the last chart I posted on UVXY had it dropping from $21 to $12.

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2013/01/spx-taking-it-to-limits.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. My S&P trade would be profitable in the 1440's obviously. I am early on UVXY so it may not be profitable on a dip to 1440's. Hovever on a dip to 1370-1390 I believe it would be very profitable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1370 to 1390 is where the red trendline is located for SPX.

      Delete
  8. I can't exactly brag as I'm down 5.8% with TZA, however UVXY lessons should have been learned long ago not only by readers, but by all.

    I guess we'll see, but UVXY will really punish you for being early.

    If the RUT falls 1.9% I break even......if it falls where I think it will (843) then I will make 11%.

    The risk reward is better, but my stops are in if the market continues to rocket higher.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Regarding trading UVXY... say you lose 17% ... let's say you start off with $1000 - 17% now you have 830. But to regain that loss you need about a 21% gain to come out even. With each loss it requires a higher and higher percentage gain to come out even.

    Now days with low interest rates even the best traders are hoping for gains in the 6% per year range. In other words you need 4 years of excellent gains to make up for what you lost in two days with UVXY.

    Because there are no normal stocks or etfs that move in those kind of percentages your trading is now limited to UVXY. There is nothing else out there in which you can hope to get your money back. This is why I don't believe we will see anything but UVXY talked about here on this blog again. It is a one way door.

    Yes... everyone knows a market crash is coming ... but when? It could be years from now.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Vix can rise 30% overnite...hell it can rise 100% in one day with no warning. XIV is overpriced but still holding until I see proper correction (close below 20-21).

    UVXY day will come...hopefully before another 10:1 R:S

    ReplyDelete
  11. Stephen, would you buy XIV at $22? Only up 450% in last year but it must be a good deal since UVXY is going lower and lower right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I would not buy XIV at 22... too risky. However the fed has boxed themselves in a corner and cannot allow normal market corrections now or all the wheels come off. So that might be a possibility with tight stops though tight stops are impossible in these.

      This is what I mean about UVXY and XIV being one way doors... once you start in on them the only way out is to keep going. If you wait until UVXY pops up you could short it and make money perhaps. I only know of one trader making profits with these two and that is with a straddle long XIV short UVXY with tight stops.
      If you trade these you need his newsletter.
      http://vixandmore.blogspot.ie/
      (I get nothing for that recommendation).

      Delete
  12. UVXY 9's tomorrow.. this is a lesson in trading and money management. You caan have best strategy in world (charts, cycles, etc etc) but if your willing to lose 50% on a trade you will not last long. SC you have people following you and the fact you ignore money management and stops is really telling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can't put stops on UVXY... you would be out of it every 10 minutes.

      This blog will be about nothing but XIV and UVXY from now on. There is nothing else that can vaguely hope to make up the kind of trading losses they suffer.

      Having said that it does look like some pop is likely for UVXY. Could be as much as 20% but that is a coin toss. The Fed is herding everyone into stocks and there is an old saying, never fight the fed. Good luck to anyone here in UVXY... I know the disappointment.

      The market will be violent when 85 Billion a month hits it all right... and it's hitting it right now.

      Delete
  13. People always get so dramatic at tops like this. I am glad my positions are in place.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Market will be violent when it turns next.

      Delete
  14. I really don't know how you guys play UVXY? I traded it for 10c profit last week at the 13 level....now its 10.87.

    Day trade it (if you must), tight stops....sleep at night.

    Life is too short to lose everything to a corrupt system run by a corporatocracy.



    ReplyDelete
  15. Phil, you play UVXY by simultaneously playing XIV (which offsets losses) The XIV:UVXY ratio is 2:1 right now so they move in tandem $100 move in XIV = $100 move in UVXY.

    The lower VIX is stretched, the higher the POP when it rebounds...VIX is at 12 & alltime low is at 8's i believe. Will VIX get to 5's? 2's? 0's? On the otherhand VIX alltime high was 150 (1987).... So here we have VIX spending the better part of the last 12 months below 20...now 4 pts from its altime low but people convinced volatility is dead. 100 pt upside vs 4 Pts down....hmmmmmm....no brainer to me.

    Like someone already pointed out, people get irrational at market extremes...thats when you know theres a BIG TURN coming.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting....does the decay adversely affect your ability to hedge though?

      Delete
    2. Not really. I've been able to increase my positions.

      For example: 500 shares of XIV @ 15.... Still riding with tight rising stops (currently at 22& 21). Yesterday stops were 21&20... Kwim?

      500 shares of UVXY @ 14.50...100 shares stopped out at 14, 13 & 12. ( today)

      Will hold onto remaining UVXY 25% regardless ... When my XIV is triggered, will roll back into UVXY until XIV hits 17-18. Then repurchase 750 shares of XIV.

      I keep XIV& UVXY shares separate.

      Delete
  16. Btw, Oct 14, 1987 the VIX was at 24.... 6 days later at 150!!!! So those counting on gradual rise and or warning could be disappointed.

    Similarily, Sept 2008 VIX at 20...one month later up 300% at 80!

    what could set the VIX off this time?...my guess is bondmarket implosion Of US treasuries thanks to do-nothing Congress/Senate about the trillion $$ deficits...or maybe Obummer announcement of No more debt ceiling-unlimited $$$$$$$$$$ printing with trillion dollar coins. Yep...might wake up one morn to find China saying "thanks but no thanks" to uncle Ben.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I am still not sure...why are you guys want to buy UVXY? I know it's ready for POP. but you could have made tons of money by shorting it. It have very few cycles going up but majority of time it's down. You can make money in UVXY by shorting rather than buying. Good Luck!!

    ReplyDelete
  18. For me it is straightforward. The Cycle correctly predicted a sharp rally. Next it predicts decline to the red trendline. Right now there is no fear, and the Cycle shows the market about to go over the edge of the cliff. As well, more specifically, that there is tremendous volatility this year.

    ReplyDelete
  19. When trading you must always prepare to be wrong, if the S&P for some strange reason goes higher through 1500 (I know that could never happen).... but lets just say it does and then S&P gaps to 1515 what then you lose all your money because market did not agree with your "deja vu" ... SC you know better.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The movement of the market is consistent with the sharp rally phase of the cycle. That is why I called it the "sharp" rally phase.

    ReplyDelete
  21. UVXY was trading just over $2,400 per share in Oct 2011 on a reverse split adjusted basis. On Dec 31, 2011 it closed at $730 per share. As of this writing it is trading under $11 per share. UVXY was designed to fail.

    ReplyDelete
  22. TVIX rose over 700% during 2011.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TVIX was trading at $1100 as well in Oct 2011 and is now under $5. The point is with these instruments is your timing has to be PERFECT. If your timing is off you get taken to the cleaners.

      SC, I've followed you for almost two years now and over that time you have made a lot of excellent, dead-on calls. It's only when you started focusing almost exclusively on UVXY that the trades started getting suspect. Trading volatility is a dangerous game, even for seasoned veterans. Most traders I know that do this as a profession won't touch UVXY or TVIX because of the way they are designed.

      I wish you would consider focusing on the S&P and precious metals like you did a year ago.

      Delete
    2. Thank you, and yes I agree. That is certainly true. Timing is sensitive along with price. I only have the interest in volatility since my Cycle shows a period of volatility ahead. Once that volatile period ends I will no longer have any interest in volatility.

      Most of my charts are S&P anyways. Gold and Silver were slow last year which is why I had little interest. I go where the action is, and am most interested in big moves.

      Delete
    3. I appreaciate your feedback, thank you.

      Delete
  23. Mick, S&P is up 5% for the month of January... And up 120% from the 2009 lows. Are you expecting 5% return per month x 12 mo =. 60% return for 2013?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Not only that but S&P has gained practically nothing since Sept, and little since March 2012. It is losing momentum.

    ReplyDelete
  25. SC, your short SnP is already 20pts in the red.

    Are you going to let it run 40 points against you?

    ReplyDelete
  26. I am staying positioned short in accordance with the Cycle. As I've always said I'm not picking a top, I am simply trading the Cycle that has accounted for every major move for years.

    ReplyDelete
  27. The Deja Vu cycle is a SLV chart from 2011. How can you say it has accounted for every major move for years?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The turning points are shown with the arrows going back to July 2011, and can go back further as well.

      Delete
  28. SC, what happens if the deja-vu cycle stops correlating? Markets are being artificially manipulated by the Fed...especially the way VIX is being compressed...

    Or is the "sudden drop" wake up one morning with SPX down 100pts in a WTF just happened moment.

    With the spx so close to 1500 it wouldnt surprise me to see a "sucker" POP over 1505

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It'll stop correlating at some point I'm sure, but has been working for a long time. It predicted this sharp rally.

      Other evidence is backing the Cycle, and we have seen that with the weak large caps, NDX since Sept etc.

      Yes, there will be debate about 1500, but really it is just another number.

      Delete
  29. SC said he put his entire trading portfolio in UVXY. 50% went in on Jan. 10 at 14.41 and the other 50% on Jan 11 at 14.52 ...average price 14.46.

    As of this moment 7 trading days later UVXY is at 10.32 for a 29% loss. To make up for a 29% loss requires a 40% gain.

    There is basically only one trading vehicle that can hope to make up that sort of trading loss. And it doesn't have such a good record. Let's hope it works out this time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, my positions are short SPX and long UVXY as well.

      Delete
    2. So what percentage do you put in UVXY very roughly?

      Delete
    3. I have a sizable amount.

      Delete
    4. It's a personal choice. People need to decide their own allocations.

      Delete
    5. I don't want to get into financial planning here. I simply present the charts and cycles.

      Delete
    6. "Most of my portfolio is short S&P, and in UVXY." -SC

      What vehicles do you use to short S&P?

      Delete
  30. Just look at the UVXY chart, it went from 2400ish to the current price of around 10...clearly this is a day trading or hedge vehicle, not a buy and hold kind of thing...if you play this thing you need to place a stop loss and take the loss on the chin like a man, imo.

    ReplyDelete
  31. You don't just present charts and cycles... you post trades. But if you are saying you are trading other things that are not discussed here, then you can make it seem like you are not taking huge losses and in this way present a very false picture to newcomers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I post the charts, cycles, and reasoning. The trades are posted and that is as transparent as humanly possible. Most sites don't post any trades at all.

      Delete
    2. Ok but when I just pointed out your trading losses of the past 7 days that you posted on this blog... you said your trading losses were not like that. Why? Because of trades you say you made that were not posted here and that you will not tell anyone what they were.

      A bit dishonest wouldn't you say?

      Delete
    3. No, you said that I was all in UVXY. That is not the case. I'm short SPX, and also have a sizable position in UVXY.

      All the trades are posted. I have not taken losses, and expect these to be profitable trades in time.

      Delete
    4. Ok, fair enough ... I didn't see any trades posted for SPXU ... in fact I didn't even know you were in that one.

      Delete
    5. I just post the SPX index levels when I enter/exit. So many different ways to trade SPX.

      Delete
  32. SC, does your 2011 silver chart correspond to current SP in the same time scale, daily as well or a different time scale, say weekly? I agree with you on the coming hard fall, but it is hard to pin point the exact time. If it is daily to daily, then the hard fall will be in Feb. If it is daily to weekly, then the hard fall will be in later March and April, Feb. and first half of March will be pretty much wasted. Please clarify.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This cycle will not pinpoint exact timing. Decent estimates can be made, but cannot be exact. I am using 1 day to 3 day. I think the market can drop a fair bit in Feb, and due to test the red trendline March.

      Delete
  33. Thanks, SC. If so, we merely test 1390 in March, then the big drop with consecutive caps has to wait till May?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it is best to take it one step at a time as far as timing. I'm basically focused on a test of the red trendline for the next move.

      Delete
  34. SC, just curious, has your 1440 target changed now that SPX has made a modestly higher high? Or is it geometry-based and independent of the current price high?

    Also, I was wondering why you expect the decline to stop just above pitchfork support rather than right at the pitchfork. (It may be that you expect the bottom pitchfork support to be offset by the same degree the top pitchfork resistance was broken, but the top hadn't been broken at the time you posted your target).

    Thanks...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That 1440 area seems to show up a few different ways so it makes a target and there could be some support there I think. The market usually does not hit the line exactly, and a lot of geometry is there in the 1440 to 1450 range. Also it is about a 50% retracement of this latest push since late Dec.

      Delete
    2. Thanks SC! What do you think equivalent push in UVXY will be for this 1440 drop? 16's?

      I'm thinking XIV can correct 20-25% into 18 area = around 16's UVXY...

      Funny how "quiet period" corresponds to Feb-April timeperiod and those congress buffooons just postpone debt ceiling another 3 months... Maybe they read your blog?

      Delete
    3. $14 to $16 seems reachable short term. We'll see. Mainly the large cycle targets the 1370 to 1390 SPX area anyways, and I do think there will be fear on that move.

      Somehow this cycle just seems to work out. I was thinking the same thing about the quiet period. The timeline is rather eerie...

      Delete
    4. Hi SC

      quick questions on that range 14 to 16$ you think is reachable in short term, that isnt a whole lot compare to your entry price. Are you planning to sell around that price?

      holding it for almost none to dollar or two gain, while currently down like close to around 4 since your entry for UVXY should be around 14 middle ish? Or you think that 14 to 16 range is extremely conservative here?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    5. Short term I may consider exiting UVXY on a decent bounce and reload soon after at a better entry. We'll see if it makes sense.

      Aside from that though I want to be positioned for a drop to the red trendline on SPX in the 1370 to 1390 range. So I don't want to be in the habit of too much short term trading now.

      Delete
  35. SC
    QQQ head and shoulder pattern

    sp500 weekly target is 1225, short term day period, 1420

    i went into vix too early, bad call, but willing to hold, im down 50%, ur not the only one

    GL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Z.Q.

      You have a target for your VIX you looking for? or a time target for this sp500 1225 and 1420 that you can share with us?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  36. i dont know how to post charts onto blog.......if i do, i would continue the work with SC......but in the end, its his blog。。。。。lol, im here to learn too

    ReplyDelete
  37. Risk on as per Forex Kong - now a full 300 pips in profit since morning trade entries.

    This guy is literally "uncanny" as to calling short term market turns - and now providing strategy and indicators.

    ReplyDelete
  38. James Trad,
    We all feel for anyone who has taken huge losses holding a trading vehicle like UVXY which has lost 97% in one year (including myself personal loss of 60%).

    But to fully recover from it you have to follow 4 steps. The first two steps you have covered in your post.
    Step one: Know who you are mad at.
    Step two: Know why.
    Step three: Inventory: what was affected by my reading and believing this blog? My money, my pride, my ability to take care of my family...
    Step four: What was my part in this? I tried to take free trading advice believing I could out trade all professionals by following a free blog rather than doing my own work. I believed I did not need to be fully informed about the trading vehicles I was involved in. I allowed my hopes for what I wanted to happen to blind me to what is happening or hold on longer than made sense...I did no homework to find out how accurate the past forecasts were...

    To think an action I took is someone else's fault is insane.


    We can be great traders but it will not happen if we think someone else held us back or are responsible for our moves.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Looks as though my alternate correlation chart along with this large rising wedge is in play:
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6GSvbg3CCxM/UPxgGgae77I/AAAAAAAAACc/RqoemrnhYsA/s1600/S&P+Rising+Wedge.JPG

    www.timethetrade.blogspot.ca

    I was clearly early with my TZA entry however the end should be very near, in line with SC's scary dip. Just wondering though if we teeter around a bit until the 28th...Look for an afternoon dip. I have support and resistance levels also posted.

    SC et all UVXY holders, I think that you will make your money back here, or at least a good 50% of your losses back, but I would scale in your sells so that you don't end up back at 50% and greater losses. My wish is that the VIX takes off and you all make a killing, that is my true wish, and never play UVXY again. Learn your lesson, even if you happen to make money or break even on this trade. The temptation to play it will always be there, but do not take the trade without a stop....and to do that, you need a 3 - 5% cushion, while taking smaller profits rather than looking for the big one!.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "My wish is" .. "that is my true wish, and never play.."

      just another confirmation that this market is full of amateurs.



      Delete
    2. At least he shares his thoughts. AM, you have said you are medium term bearish and also mentioned a pattern at 1600.

      Delete
    3. All im saying is that shorting this market without excellent timing is a financial suicide. You entered short without stops and time targets, i just think its plain crazy.

      The worst part ? Others have followed you blindly ..

      Delete
    4. AM, not sure what i said that was wrong. It's my personal wish that UVXY holders make their money back.....you highlight this as being amatuerish? I call it compassionite and wanting them to learn the lessons of this dangerous vehicle.

      Delete
    5. People complained about my bullish charts in Nov, and my entry at 1378. It wasn't a perfect entry but it was good enough to make nice profits.

      It is the same situation this time around.

      Delete
  40. I still think a dip is likely within a few days. However, the market is moving slow so I think dip first to around 1475, flatten off, then the scary dip in Feb to 1440's. March test the red trendline 1370 to 1390.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, Serious question - Do you think you can be totally wrong? Just a yes or no.

      Delete
    2. just what i thought. ok. i'll be specific.

      "I still think a dip is likely within a few days. However, the market is moving slow so I think dip first to around 1475" - no dip within few days to 1475

      ", flatten off," - no flatten off

      " then the scary dip in Feb to 1440's." - no scary dip to 1440's in feb

      " March test the red trendline 1370 to 1390. " - no test of 1370-1390 in march.

      Delete
    3. Yes, this is the outlook from the cycles and charts that I use. What is your outlook AM?

      Delete
    4. in cash and bullion. waiting to go long into the summer.

      Delete
    5. AM. Why are you so sure scary dip won't come? SC was right about sharp rally.

      Delete
    6. TRADERGURL i can be wrong. Do your own due deligence please .

      http://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj536/charts101/scsSPXpDyr2mn0dy0ip32370625066a2808_zpsa1164f24.png



      Delete
  41. Hi SC

    less tense questions lol.

    curious to know how is it a scary dip to 1440 from current level not happening till Feb a scary dip? it less than 100 point of drop. I would think if we drop to 1370 from current level is a scary dip.

    Also, that red trendline dip seems like nothing compare to that massive fall next, wondering what name you would like to label that massive fall? stock market light out (I should copy right that label LOL)?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The market has been quiet this month with small up days. So in Feb I do think a scary dip is due to 1440's. Not a huge move but what makes it scary is how fast. Can see a 30-40 point down day for example "out of the blue".

      Then the drop to the red trendline is larger.

      Pick some names for that big drop, lol!

      Delete
  42. SC, you never explained how your cycles got completely wrong early 2012 200pt rally on the SnP (you were calling for a crash back then) and then july - sept 2012 150pt rally, you were looking for severely bearish july/freefall. See chart above.

    If it happened twice already (large moves in the opposite direction missed). I dont see any reason why it can not happen again. It simply tells me that your methods are not reliable. thats all. Is this too harsh of me? Am i being stupid/disrespectful for saying this?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is little difference between where the S&P is now versus Sept or March 2012. As you can see in my Deja Vu Cycle, 2012 was simply a year of choppy trading at high levels. It was too early to look for a crash in 2012, since the market spent the year forming a choppy top.

      The topping process is mature now and the crash is due as shown in the Cycle.

      I warned plenty about the market in 2012, and the warning is the same today. We are just finishing to topping process. It was a slow process.

      Delete
    2. This is his trading style and he is obviously comfortable with it.
      That is not your style, I do not like it too...
      Simple different traders, different ways of trading...

      Delete
  43. we our traders SC so being a year early kind of gets you CRUSHED

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I recognize that, and that is why I am trading each phase of this Cycle distinctly - one step at a time.

      The gradual decline phase, sharp rally phase, test of the red trendline etc...

      Keep in mind that 2012 was a great year for short term trading and pretty even for bulls/bears. This year is a downtrending year in the Cycle so that requires a different strategy.

      Delete
  44. In my humble opinion, nobody has a clue where mkts are going with the exception of Ben Bernanke & his merry band of cronies that control it...

    We are all only as good as our last trade....I bought UVXY at 10.28 yesterday & sold at 11.00. That is my 2nd profitable trade of the year in this decaying piece of crap. I wouldn't touch it again, sticking to the ETF's.

    Its important that people understand that SC doesn't claim to trade. If he did, he would have lost his shirt by now.

    I don't understand what he does actually looking at last year's performance but each to their own at the end of the day.

    ReplyDelete
  45. The psychology is interesting though....

    Look at Prechter, he's been consistantly wrong for years & yet people still listen to him time & time again!

    ReplyDelete
  46. Prechter is just looking at the end game. The financial system is becoming mature. He knows this but Prechter is getting up there in years, and ironically may not even be alive to see his prediction come true.

    I am most interested in indentifying the largest moving markets and commodities - the largest profit moves. I have plenty of patience for large moves, and the Deja Vu Cycle is as simple and clear as it gets.

    I am trading the large scale Cycle, and obviously I believe most people will be shocked by what happens this year.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Thank you for the clarification....Prechter is a money making scam that focuses on daily movements in the S&P & consistantly gets it wrong.

    Certainly a deflationary bust would be more desirable than an inflationary bust that's for sure.

    Once again, nobody can guess the outcome, there are many who are betting on a 35,000 Dow too! Check out wavegenius.com who made 157% profit last year & 107% profit the year before, the guy is amazing & real time.

    All I know is I'm up for the year so far, currently long US$ short GBP but with a tight stop & sleep well at night. I like to spend my winnings & not just hope that one day I might have a chance of being right or lose everything.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Sorry SC, i've pushed it too far. Emotions are running high. I apologize for that. I hope it works out for everybody, but we know in the real world its not going to happen. As Phil said above, it is more important to be able to sleep well at night, at the end no amount of money will make up for that.

    Perma gloom and doom crowd - we'll always have those, its like a mental disorder IMO and it tends to spread among vurnerable people.

    Atilla is out and bearish again, lets see how it all plays out.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I'm just a trader sticking with the facts - the cycles. Obviously I was bullish in November at low prices, the sharp rally phase occurred per the Cycle. Now very bearish at high prices.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The "cycles" are not facts just saying.

      The decline of UVXY to the amount of almost 25% is a FACT.

      Delete
    2. The fact is that this Cycle has predicted the turns going back for years.

      Delete
  50. There is no place in this market for permagloom or the "buy and hold" of past decades. This is the golden age of trading and has been that way since the year 2000.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Then why are you "buying" and "holding" UVXY when it's down 25% ?

      Delete
    2. The bearish trades I have in place are designed to profit from a drop to the red trendline for SPX per the Cycle.

      Wait and see. The critics did not approve of my bullish November SPX entry at 1378 either.

      Delete
    3. SC, your analysis could be spot on just like the rise that started at the end of December. However, I would think we could tag 1515-1525 area may be after some choppy trading. Good luck!

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  51. looks like we are going up to 1520 next week

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    1. To be fair SC...your critics do have a point going by your calls made last year!

      You say "the mkt has no place for a permagloom or the buy & hold" & yet you bought the decaying beast UVXY & holding it some 25-30% down already.

      The golden age of trading is...buying at 2 & selling at 3. It really doesn't get anymore technical than that!

      These "cycles", they are not written in stone. Charles Nenner for example who has written about cycles extensively is saying that his cycles are still up.

      There is no correct pathway in trading/investing/gambling....just our own gut feeling based off personal experience & more importantly; history.

      The mkt is over valued but it is also a rigged game designed to take your money. These bubbles can continue until natural forces begin to dictate neoclassical economic models & not the other way round, which of course will happen at some point.

      Even Prechter will be right some day but until then...buy em at 2 & sell em at 3 BUT HAVE TIGHT STOPS.


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  52. Wavegenius (who gets 80% of his trades correct every year + over 100% profit per year) is calling this a wave 3 up...we get a wave 4 soon then up to 1540-60.

    The VIX is trading ALMOST at multi-year lows & YES is due a bounce but it could stay low for another month & needs to trade lower than 12.30 & then sharply reverse before one should consider a trade in UVXY.

    By which time decay will creep in & UVXY will be down another 10%++...:)

    Just some food for thought anyway....

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