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Thursday, December 29, 2011

$SPX - Bearish Indications for Tomorrow

SPX hit resistance today at the red fork.  The cycle analysis is also extremely negative for tomorrow. 

NDX continues to weaken, and the gap is widening.  I showed many charts in the first half of 2011 with comparisons using the financials and SPX.  The Financials were warning well in advance of the August collapse, and in this case it is NDX.     


60min Chart















2hour Chart















The DAX is leading down in December.  I have shown the DAX comparison before, and it has given great signals in advance of downturns in SPX. 

Daily Chart

29 comments:

  1. Usually the last day of the year is weak, which should set up a rebound into the New Year. My cycles are bullish into at least March.

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  2. Dear ZigZag, in my view you have an amaizing track record. I have a question though, do you see any contradiction between your call for a bullish 1st quater of 2012 and a call for a swift decline into January 6th or thereabouts. In other words, does you cycle work shows any potential for January 6ht to be a turn date?
    Thanks a lot in advance

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  3. Hi sirgiyan, the next cycle alignment I can find is for the week of January 16th, with the larger cycle hitting around the middle of March. The NYSI weekly is currently at a low and that leads me to believe the next peak will likely be the week of the 16th before another leg up into March. It's always possible we could fall next week before going up.

    Next year looks much better than this one :-)

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  4. ZigZag.

    do you see a gap fill to 1150 in Jan as a high possibility?

    thanks

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  5. SC what are you seeing for silver tommorow?

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  6. Thanks SC. And happy new year!

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  7. Happy new year to SC and all followers

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  8. Silver and Gold both look great. The bottoms yesterday are looking solid. I have interesting charts coming for both - very positive.

    2012 is set up to be a superb year for trading both sides of the market.

    All the best, and Happy New Year!

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  9. Gold miners look like they are starting to get tired today. Gold going to back fill a bit soon?

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  10. Hi stevesteve121, I think we'll likely stay above the 11/25 cycle low. The Dec 13th - 14th cycle low should hold if we drop in January.

    http://tinyurl.com/7rfjs9f

    http://tinyurl.com/d33m5gz

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  11. zig zag

    you are quite bullish, you see 1370+ in Q1 2012?

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  12. Zig Zag,

    What is your view for Gold and Silver ?

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  13. Interestingly the VIX futures are continuing to point to a tumultuous January, rising again. HVU looks like a good bet. Now wondering though if January 3rd & 4th will be positive before turning negative on the 5th. French bond sales happen on the 5th and that could be interesting.

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  14. I think it has potential stevesteve121. Next year will be better than this one.

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  15. Hey Timer, I haven't follow gold or silver very much. I can never get it to line up and when I do they invert it on me LOL. However, I did buy some GLD yesterday for the first time ever, as it had some nice divergences setting up.

    http://tinyurl.com/6uuedha

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  16. damn silver getting hammered..

    any thoughts SC?

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  17. Sami, I think it is quite normal to see these kind of moves. The bottom has been reached, silver will go up then but with with a huge volatility.

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  18. I just came across this from the CFTC website..


    EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-099741
    FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/27/11 |
    --------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
    NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
    --------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
    LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    (CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000) OPEN INTEREST: 276,022
    COMMITMENTS
    45,183 173,062 986 204,337 47,710 250,506 221,758 25,516 54,264


    Looks like we're gonna have a massive Euro Squeeze...

    Commercials are ligned up

    204,337 Contracts VS 47,710 shorts

    Retails investors:
    45,183 173,062

    Ouch!

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  19. Sami

    retail investlrs are on short? when you say squeze you mean short squeze? so i believe it will take euro higher from here correct?

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  20. Well yes thats what the commercials are ligned up for in a huge way...

    they are rarely wrong... in the intermediate term... so to me it seems that we're gonna get a pretty big euro squeeze.

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  21. Crash?

    Think we may drop a bit on Tues but I would we careful being short for a rip into thursday. We may drop again rather hard after that but I see no real top until around the 18th.

    Happy New Year to all............

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  22. I'm charting mcx India,SILVER in Indian Rupee,it is showing a minor decline on Wednesday(Jan 4th,2012) around inr.49500/700 from there a bounce till Friday(Jan 6th,2012) upto inr.55570,and from there a CRASH on Monday(Jan 8th,2012) till inr.46600 to inr.46200,where I think we might get the FINAL BOTTOM IN SILVER,i.e on JAN. 8th,2012.Lets see how things span out.
    Happy New Year to S.C and all the readers

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  23. hi S.C
    what do u think,is the bottom in silver already in? Or as I'm getting it on Jan 8th 2012 will the final bottom come?

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  24. And also in my analysis GOLD is showing the final bottom somewhere near jan 20th,2012.around $1460

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  25. Based on my own studies of market cycles, I see the S&P dropping to 1225 at the point of the intersection of the yellow support line and the declining upper red line. This should occur on or around the close of Jan 12th.
    The uptrend should then resume and top around Mar 3rd. This will be a choppy rise to at least the 1340 area. A major decline should start there and bottom at the end of Aug or beginning of Sept.

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  26. Sounds about right all though I think we attempt 1300 out the gate only to see it get rejectee by eow.

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  27. Correction to my previous post:

    The uptrend should then resume and top around Mar 3rd. This will be a choppy rise to at least the 1340 area. A major decline should start there and bottom at the end of Oct or beginning of Nov.

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  28. Amitt, what you said about the final bottom for gold is quite interesting. But the thing is before to reach its final bottom, gold is expected to go up to ~ $1700. That is why gold and silver should go up next week

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  29. Hi everyone and happy new year to you all. I just joined your blog and am looking forawrd to learning and hopefully making some contributions!

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