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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

$INDU - Major Decline Next

The white trendline is anticipated to be tested early in 2012.  This represents a 20% decline from the current level.  The white line is equivalent to the trendline shown in my recent SPX analysis. 

There is tremendous resistance overhead with a major decline anticipated to commence shortly.

2day Chart















Timing should be close to the apex marked with the green arrow.  Early 2012...

7day Chart















Monthly Chart

69 comments:

  1. These charts look solid, the potential target zone looks right in line with somewhere near/above the June 2010 lows.

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  2. http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/dollarbullishwick500atresistancedec21.gif

    Woops, forgot to post the chart!

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  3. 2800 dow points in 9 days,you serious?

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  4. SC,
    don't you think low is in for comex gold,for today,can it come to $1635,if low is already in?

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  5. 5 days down in a row for PM's. A slow start indeed

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  6. eur/usd helping to crush PMs.. looks like it could go lower here too. Maybe back to 26?

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  7. I agree Mike, there is no spike coming...it will bottom first, then start a prolonged move up. Dollar is flight to safety, PM's have just been in liquidation move for the last 9 days while we look for a spike

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  8. I am already so upside down on this trade waiting for the spike that I am not sure if it is even worth cutting the loss here or just waiting for the final bottom.

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  9. SC said silver will spike quickly to $31 before to declined into $ 27 (his bottom). Maybe silver wont spike and will declined until his bottom (maybe $27) before a big up move.
    I think it will happen this way

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  10. Not what you thought yesterday Bobo

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  11. I did not think that today silver would experienced such a raid.
    I was and I am still confident about a huge spike in silver prices. I think we will be surprised by this move. So I keep saying that silver will be in a range $ 30-32 at the end of the week

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  12. in '08 projected silver low based on money flow symmetry was week of 10/10/08, actual low came in week of 10/31/08. This year projected low is week of 12/30/11 im wondering if the actual low will be later in jan '12.

    SC, ABQ any time targets for this bottom?

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  13. I still do not understand why SC thinks Silver will act inversly from the S&P. I just don't agree with that. So, I think Silver will bottom at 26.15, but if that is broken, then it will hit $21. If the S&P crashes as a result of the upcoming french downgrade, then that will ensure $21 is hit for Silver in my opinion. I for one am hoping for that, so I can sell my HVU at that point and switch to HZU.

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  14. looks to me like silver is heading for 26 on the futures.. 25 or so on the SLV

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  15. SPX heading down today in line with my cycle analysis. Let's see how things go today/tomorrow. SPX still may have a possibility at making a double top if it manages to claw back up.

    Most of my charts lately are bigger picture. That is because I think we are looking at a large move next.

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  16. Silver and Gold are down but, capital is going to start flowing into them soon. The mechanism is the same as what we saw in July and August with S&P down, and metals up in safe haven trade.

    There is strong support for Gold at $1550 and for Silver at $27. I'm very bullish on both. Gold $2,050 is my target and Silver $37 in the next few months. So while they looks ugly today, this is an exciting time for the metals.

    Gold should move up more steady, Silver starts slower, but then parabolic to finish. A strategy is that Gold looks better first, then switch to Silver to catch the parabola up.

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  17. SC so you dont see any possibilities of silver going below 26 in this move down?

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  18. SC, just don't think that Silver and Gold will fully decouple from the S&P. We'll see. I'm glad the S&P is down today, that is good. TOnight could be telling with the Italy Bond auction. I wonder if I should take some off the table with HVU and buy back tomorrow if the bond auction lifts the markets...

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  19. No, little downside here for Silver and Gold.

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  20. For SPX there is support at 1242 so there may be some downside still to that level.

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  21. SC,

    you predicted the market weakness this week and its progressing nicely.

    What does your cycle look like in terms of market strength (positivity/negativity) for next week?

    thanks

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  22. SC

    looks like silver have reached your bottom today...do you think it will go sraight to 37 from here? there may be some ups and down but general trend would be up?

    Thanks

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  23. It's not a perfect science, but I find this system gives good results when there are extremes. Today, tomorrow and Friday all look very weak at extremes. There still can be bounces.

    Next week is also negative though it is more mixed. I think there may be some type of bottom Friday Jan 6th or Monday Jan 9th. Will reassess along the way and nearer to that time.

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  24. Silver might spend a little time firming up down here, and it is likely to start slow. Few dips and a fairly steady trend up comes next. The excitement comes when it builds up strength and goes parabolic up.

    Gold should be a better performer early on. Very steady rise for Gold, but without the parabolic finish that Silver should see.

    I think the following charts should play out well.

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/goldsilver-bottoming-massive-upside.html

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  25. SC, that makes sense on Silver with QE3, which I don't think will be announced until March or so.

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  26. in all fairness SC was calling the silver move down to 27 area when it was at 34.00 bucks....

    So whatever trickeries he is using.. minus out the noise.. seems to be working.

    LONG LIVE SC!!!!!

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  27. Lol thanks Sami.

    It has been a challenge to line up Silver, and get this bottom just right. Silver can be a test of patience, but it makes fast moves when it is ready, and that makes it well worth the wait.

    Silver is going to be exciting for 2012!

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  28. SC- do you see a possibility of the entire market breaking to catastrophically? Meaning that trading financial markets more or less stops altogether or something else dramatic? If so, when would you expect something catastrophic to happen? Thanks

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  29. Just wanted to point this out
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=slv:spy


    Looks like capitulation happening in Silver to SPY correlation.....

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  30. SC .. will you be posting a chart of smaller time frame chart analysis on Silver anytime soon?

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  31. SC,

    A MT target has probably been formed on 27 Dec 11.

    Now it should be gunning for 6/9 Jan 12 for a low.

    Good call for the turn.

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  32. Yes, unfortunately the current economic system and currencies only have a finite lifespan. This concept may seem strange, but a person only truly "knows" what they have experienced in their lifetime. In reality, throughout history there have been many economic systems - all of which have come and gone. It is the normal course when measured over a longer time span. The only way to understand this timing is to work with longer term cycles.

    I realize that the system will come to an end though it is more a process than an abrupt ending. The end of one system is simultaneous with the beginning of a new one. The real worry is not the economic change, but how people react to this change. There is a lot of tension created when the majority go from having a lot to having little.

    We know the system is reaching maturity because every year the movements are extreme. In 2008, we had the big crash, and the awakening that something is seriously unstable with the system. In 2010 the flash crash. An event such as the flash crash was previously unthinkable. In 2011 the Aug crash. Every year there is going to be another event that seems impossible, but they have become regular annual events. When I say impossible events, I am talking about both declines and rallies, not just bearish events. There will be rallies that will amazingly float up forever and surprise traders.

    I am confident that I have done the research and have the big picture cycles and symmetrical patterns to understand this market. Of course I don't have all the answers all the time, but I have a map in place with the big picture.

    As Chuck Prince at Citi would say "as long as the music is playing you've got to get up and dance". The next few years will see unprecedented movements. All of this volatility amounts to the golden age of trading.

    2012 is going to be incredible. I have a lot of charts completed, and huge setups coming for 2012.

    The peak of euphoria is yet to come, and have that mapped..... There is nothing catastrophic for quite some time yet (years).

    After that, well, look at the bright side - the sun will still come up every day.

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  33. Yes Sami, charts coming for Silver.

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  34. Hi SC:
    I came across and followed your blog today. There are quite a few blogs I read that called for the same downturn starting 12/28/2011 and as of this writing, their and yours stand correct. The differences between the blogs are how swift the decline is going to be and the final end targets. From your writing, it is going to be a 200-point drop in 6 trading days and the end target for the S&P will be about 1040. I assume that this would be the near term bottom and the market should move up from here? Or will there be more downturn to follow in the later part of January. Many folks who posted market cycles also said more downturn between the 6 and 18 of January. I believe this is in synced with the decline between 6/6/08 through 7/15/08. I just want know your take for the rest of the January month. Thank you and I do really appreciate your work.

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  35. I like 1044 SPX for a target, and I have a specific pattern that I have in mind from the symmetry to mark bottoms.

    It could be a much longer slide down. I have a number of dates in mind, but I want to see where things stand at Jan 6-9th and assess at that point.

    Let's take it one step at a time. Today was the first downside we have seen, and this is a spot to monitor closely.

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  36. I'm still holding long from my Oct 3rd cycle low, and I have been adding at my smaller cycle lows that I have posted here. I haven't seen anything in my work to suggest a big decline is coming. We're more likely to keep going higher until at least my mid March cycle. I will continue to buy the dips at my cycles.....January could surprise many.

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  37. Hi SC:
    Thank you for the quick reply.
    Vincent.

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  38. So now it could be a "much longer slide down"? What happened you your FIRM WARNING that the SPX will decline to 1044 by January 6th. Sounds like backtracking to me.

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  39. Thanks Zigzag, always appreciate your point of view. Let's see what happens. Certainly an interesting spot we are at in the markets.

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  40. Nifty

    Give him a break. Unfortunately this is not an exact science.

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  41. If too many people say the same thing, there is a danger it may not materialise.

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  42. SC, silver bottom (~ $27) has been hit. What do you think ? What's is your new bottom ?

    I think that the volatility which silver is experiencing is necessary to get new all time highs.

    Silver market is the most manipulated one, so because of low volumes, manipulation in prices seems to be quite easy. Need to wait a little bit, that is why I reduced my leverage.

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  43. SC, if gold silver ratio does not stop here at under 58, it is going for 64. That means that SLV could be trading at very low 20's again and very soon. First multi year solid support is at 23.70/oz right now.

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  44. some food for thought about gold/silver...

    http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/12/where-does-multi-year-support-levels-come-into-play-for-gold-and-silver/

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  45. I like Gold and Silver, looking cheap. I'm going to be watching them closely today as the bottom should be close at hand. Let's see how they play out this morning.

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  46. NDX looks weak, might have a shot at 1236 SPX.

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  47. SC,

    I think 1256 for SP500 is top for today for the mini counter trend rally. Should have relief off the oversold conditions and poise to resume the down trend again. Your view ?

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  48. It does seem a lower low coming next.

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  49. SC .. where abouts do you see silver bottoming?
    on the futures

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  50. May have already seen it this morning Sami.

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  51. SC .. with the correlation of silver to spx at almost 1:1 except silver being the higher beta...

    When do you see this disconnect occuring to the inverse? Otherwise wouldn't your target for the spx put silver in the low 20s if this disconnect doesn't occur ? It seems the USD is the safe haven now.. rather than PMs.

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  52. Should trade inversely soon, same thing happened in early July.

    That SLV:SPY ratio sure does look like capitulation.

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  53. The fade is playing out in the SPX, but if SLV doesn't regain $26 I fear the bottom is going to fall out. Good times.

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  54. SC,

    I think Gold and Silver will follow stock to sell off into next year.

    I just received my Merriman forecast 2012 book. It stated that for Gold, it might have seen its 34 mths low on 26 Sep 2011, but if price goes lower than 1535, which it already did yesterday, than we will be looking at the next window of end Feb 2012, in the range of 1355-1450.

    For Silver, I think it will track Gold and follow suite accordingly.

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  55. SLV:SPY looking ok for a reversal here boys!!! Fingers crossed..

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  56. SC,

    Do you think today silver has reached its bottom and is ready to move up ?

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  57. It does look really promising for a Silver bottom today.

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  58. right SC,
    In mcx exchange india also,there is butterfly pattern formed on silver daily chart

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  59. SC,

    When does the crash kick in?

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  60. S&P holding well today, may try to make a double top.

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  61. I also think gold and silver will continue a sell-off through next year. What we are about to see is deflation, and during deflationary periods, large sums of money are raised by selling all types of assets.... including gold & silver.... to cover loan losses and margin calls.

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  62. Quite surprising the spike for silver right now !
    I hope $ 26 has been the bottom :)

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  63. SC

    GOLD CRASHING next few days ?
    http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/

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  64. Sc thank you for your unique analysis. Your great work and humble attitude is appreciated.

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  65. SC, right on about Wednesday, today however was very strong, and tomorrow looks like it will follow through. You holding HVU still and will you be holding it through next week?

    Basically, you had predicted 3 very bad days from the 28th on, and so far you are 1 for 2, with most of yesterdays losses recouped today. Does tomorrow still appear negative, and do you still anticipate a very negative week next week with Jan 5th reaching your S&P low, or would you say that perhaps things have changed slightly? Thanks SC, appreciate your work.

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  66. It looks like the drop on 28 Dec is a wave 1 down and the retracement on 29 Dec is wave 2, which have retraced close to 76%.

    So on 30 Dec, we could be seeing a sell down to close the year, and continue into next year. Futures are showing signs of weakening as of now.

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  67. SS76, tomorrow looks bearish. It could be quite a down day potentially. We should have better indications for timing next week once we see the action tomorrow. I have a pattern that I have in mind for next week, looking for some confirmation tomorrow.

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