Pages

Sunday, November 20, 2011

SPY - 2008 Pattern Continues

There continues to be similarity in the trading pattern of 2011 compared to 2008.  The next leg down to the green arrow is expected to commence soon.  The November whipsaws are nearing completion. 

December in particular looks very bearish.

As shown though the end result is anticipated to look much different in 2012 than it did in 2008.  Instead of a crash, a massive rally kicks off from the green arrow.  Despite the economic malaise, 2012 looks extremely bullish! 

Make no mistake, eventually the markets will reflect the deteriorating economic conditions, and my cycle work predicts how and when this will occur.   

The 2008 comparison is a convenient way to show what is anticipated next.  The main evidence comes from my other cycle work.  For example, the symmetry charts indicate another plunge, the cycle analysis looks bearish, and other methods are in agreement.  I will outline more specific thoughts as to the important dates, and smaller time frame patterns later. 

Some downside early next week is possible, but a solid bounce is anticipated next week before the more bearish cycles start to become active.     

Daily Chart


  












This is the pattern from the 2008 crash:

3day Chart

54 comments:

  1. SnP...............BUY AND HOLD?????


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/718/snp.gif/


    Good trading! joed



    “MEMORIZING………….WILL NOT MAKE UP FOR WORK”

    ReplyDelete
  2. DIFFERENT TYPES OF FORECASTS……………..


    I was asked in an email about the Dow CIT chart. There are basically a couple different ways of forecasting……………

    CIT DATES………….

    Almost everyone does this is some way or another………..it is nothing more than determining which date in the future to expect a turn. One can do this all the way from Astro dates to bar counts and everything in between! This is usually a static count and in reality it depends on what time period in the future one is interested in……this will dictate the approach used! With CIT dates I find the simplest approach is the easiest to consistently use.

    FORCASTING…………..

    This is a completely different animal………….this approach is much more complex and demands much more attention to detail and takes much more time to perfect. It demands one has filters in effect so that the trader also has a good idea when he is approaching a change in his forecast. This type of approach is giving the trader a very good idea of the time, direction and price ratio of the move into the future……….much like Gann’s forecast of the 1929 crash! CIT dates do none of this but rather concentrate on dates of turns!

    I have shown both types will be shown here at different times of the different market moves…………

    Good trading,

    joed

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is my comment from the 17th:

    "I'm going to look closer at SPX - have been eyeing the 1187 area for a while. It seems the cycle came in early, but it wasn't much early, and I don't see that impacting future dates. Nov 21st still makes sense."

    Likely close to a short term bottom, time and price targets met today as expected. Nov 21st is a turn date in my smaller cycles. I think we'll see a strong bounce next to 1270 area. Bearish after that.

    ReplyDelete
  4. With the exception of today, my cycle analysis is quite bullish this week.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SC, you think silver bounce is over or are you still expecting 34-35 short term on the futures before continuing lower?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I still think Silver bounces.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi SC

    wondering about your cycle work for next week, if for the rest of this week is bullish, would it continue into next week into Dec 1st? and then decline from there? so near the end of next week bearish?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  8. SI: http://screencast.com/t/oe9B5F2fGaz

    Giddy-up! http://screencast.com/t/ylJXJl6HAoE
    RLX: http://screencast.com/t/txpl8JLq

    ReplyDelete
  9. This week is conclusively bullish using many different methods. I have some mixed signals for next week, but I am leaning bearish though it may be able to hold.

    Let see how things go this week, and we can review later in the week.

    ReplyDelete
  10. So I want to be clear, even though the chart above is quite bearish, that is a bigger picture chart. I wanted to give some notice which is why I posted the chart early.

    I'm expecting one final whipsaw short squeeze this month to near 1270 before the bottom falls out.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SC, appreciate your heads up on the bigger picture.

    Ag and Au seem to have bottomed short term. Any updates on short term upside gold targets? looking at 1720-1730's as the top of the multiyear channel, not sure if its got momentum to go higher..

    ReplyDelete
  12. I haven't looked at the short term movement for Gold as much as I have for Silver. Gold looks really cheap at this price.

    Just eyeballing it, a bounce to $1760 or better looks possible next.

    ReplyDelete
  13. EMINI CYCLE FOLLOW UP..........

    Well the dio buyers got their dip....lol....all %50 of it so far! Good trading! joed


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/3/eminidailycycleupdate.gif/

    ReplyDelete
  14. SC, minor Bradley turn date coming up - nov 22/23 then major dec 28th. rally into the second turn date then bye-bye 1000's?

    http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Gurus/DonaldBradley/bradley2011.GIF

    ReplyDelete
  15. SC

    Do you ever explain your cycle work? How you do it?

    Zigzag

    Been trying to catch up reading as I am new! Are you saying you have been holding all this time into this correction! Your last post!

    "One giant ramp is about to commence. Hope you've been buying the dips.
    This cycle doesn't end until January and possibly March.. "

    Tx, I am new here and appreciate al the posts and work! Syd

    ReplyDelete
  16. gabe

    Nice cycle chart........real accurate ! tx, syd

    ReplyDelete
  17. Sydneice, I've been buying at my cycles. I went long at my cycle lows on August 9th and Oct 3rd. I was short at my cycle peak on July 22nd. I am up over 600 ES points since July and I continue to buy on the dips.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Welcome Syd,

    Some of the cycle methods I use are relatively straightforward to show and explain. I show the symmetry which I think is quite helpful in seeing what comes next. Equal time cycles are easy to show as well. Also I often explain various price patterns.

    The turn dates that I have been indicating, and whether each day looks bullish or bearish comes from my "cycle analysis" method.

    This one is difficult to show. It is an analytical compilation of data with calculations involved. In the future I plan to show the results in graphic form. That will make it easier to explain also.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Silver surging up! I am reviewing my upside target. I suspect it is too low by about $1.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I want to review further, but the revised target would be about $36.50 for the Silver future.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Thanks for the silve update SC.

    ReplyDelete
  22. You still think that silver finds that target in the next 5 trading days or so?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi SC

    wondering if today's SPY action so far still correspond with your timing cycle with it being bullish for the rest this week? is this some short of minor pullback before the big bounce? cause it is slowly drifting downward right now.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  24. For Silver I'll refresh that chart, probably take longer, could reach that target roughly 10 trading days. Steady climb, few dips.

    Still bullish for SPX short term, should start to catch hold soon.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi SC

    Your 1187 target was pretty accurate yesterday, wondering if you may have an idea on this week highest bull target for spx?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  26. I want to look at the target for SPX some more, and will have charts on that, expecting a good strong bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Syd, what made you pick on my post anyway?!? Anyone who has bought at my cycles has made money on them, and it seems like saying the words "buy the dip" is taboo with a few here. What a hassle…I'm done posting.... Zig out.

    ReplyDelete
  28. ZigZag,

    I would hate to see you go. I have both enjoyed and respected your excellent and timely posts. I think there is a misunderstanding here (and I do agree with you that there is a certain arrogance with some posts)with regards to the time horizon involved with the various posters. Some are day-traders others put on positions for a few days and yet others (like yourself I believe) focus more on the intermediate type of trends which is where i think your analysis has been very accurate. Of course there will be times when things don't go as well but that should not be a reason to stop posting.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Don't sweat it ZigZag. Your work has been excellent, and much appreciated. Your point of view is more of a big picture, and I am in agreement in the big picture as well. The bulls are going to surprise in dramatic fashion in 2012!

    ReplyDelete
  30. SC, I appreciate your work. ZigZag, I enjoy your posts especially when they give an alternate point of view.

    ReplyDelete
  31. ZigZag shoot me an email if you don't mind, thanks.

    cyclicalanalyst@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  32. NDX holding well today, that's bullish.

    ReplyDelete
  33. SC,

    With only 1.5 trading trading days left you still expect a strong rally?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Yes, taking it's sweet time getting going, still strong rally expected, and could carry into next week.

    ReplyDelete
  35. ZigZag - could I get your Email address? I trade on the intermediate cycles and very much appreciate your perspectives and your approach.

    ReplyDelete
  36. SC,

    with all due respect..............unless tomorrow and friday are massive up days the cycles are in question. It might be helpful to give some more color on how they work, when they work best and why they miss.

    EXAMPLE: Not calling you out just trying to understand why some times it works and why it doesn't

    "With the exception of today, my cycle analysis is quite bullish this week.'

    "This week is conclusively bullish using many different methods."

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi SC

    SPY AH just got a nose dive. Arent sure what happen there exactly, thinking this dive may continue into tomorrow as well. Curious are you still seeing the bullishness for the rest of this week? As well, Is there even enough volume to see this bounce high for the rest of the week given the fact that Thursday is a holiday, arent sure if market open on friday either.

    I remember you mention next week could be bearish starting on the 28th, is that still in affect?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  38. Let me shed some light on these cycles with charts later.

    Yesterday, the 21st, I was favoring for the low. That has worked ok, though the bounces have just been modest thus far. I'm ok with that. I still like the probability for a strong bounce next.

    I'll give a window of about a week for a bounce here. It is more Dec that looks bearish, Nov has always looked to be more whipsaws than anything.

    ReplyDelete
  39. The lack of a meaningful bounce could portend a more bearish December. I do agree we should see a decent bounce here but it must get going quickly if it has any chance of getting up to 1250-1260. If we crack here and fall down into the 1150 zone, i think the best we can hope for in terms of a bounce will be back to 1220-1230 before the December swoon comes along.

    ReplyDelete
  40. SC,

    The core of what you have been saying is that other than monday this week looks bullish and now it's a window of another week?

    Forgive me if I'm a bit confused but do the cycles have windows of a week or more?

    ReplyDelete
  41. SC

    Thanks for your help as I am new and trying to figure out a trading style……I appreciate all your work and that I know it is!!!

    Zig

    Not sure why asking a question was taken as picking on your post! Just trying to see if you trade one way or both…..and if one way is a style using cycles! Not sure why my post made you so hyper sensitive but hide your dog! Lol……..once again just trying to figure out a style for myself!

    BTW…..I have learned more from yours, SC’s and Gabes posts then al the newsletters I have seen and yours are free……..so ……thanks! Syd

    ReplyDelete
  42. ES CYCLE FOLLOW UP ......NIGHT SESSION EXIT!

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/707/escyclefollow.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    ReplyDelete
  43. ES is tanking, we could have a crash tomorrow or Thursday. Bevy of bad news from US, to Asia, to Europe.

    ReplyDelete
  44. My thoughts on the market for sharing.

    http://timecycles-timer.blogspot.com/2011/11/22-nov-thoughts.html

    ReplyDelete
  45. SS76...agree, all technicals (kelt channels, BB's, VIX) are aligning with the crash senario, ala from previous flash crash. Still maintaining mid-1100's as initial target, with revisions for lower, pending the action...62 is VIX P&F target, although that is a HUGE move. Should we obtain, sub 1100 is in order...prefer that happens later in the cycle. Agree with SC, take it one day at a time. Whatever side of the tape you are on, GLTA.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Contemplated playing HVU however figured thanksgiving weekend would have resulted in a more bullish market kind of in line with SC's cycles, however looks like that is not going to pan out. We'll see where we are in the morning, but thinking Cash might be the best place to be.....or betting on Natural Gas for a short bet.

    ReplyDelete
  47. This week looks bullish, next week looks mixed. I think bottom out right here, and choppy move higher. The next spot I am eying for a top is Dec 6th.

    S&P futures are down, but look at the nasdaq futures, they are just testing the level of this morning. Holding quite well actually.

    I'm liking Silver upside, $4 more up to $36.50 on the Silver future.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Sydneice, I misunderstood your comment. I will hide my dog :-)

    ReplyDelete
  49. Zig

    Too late he pissed on my leg! lol

    One last ?......is your style to buy at the Oct low and hold this retrace and keep buying into it holding through this or are you stopped out...........trying to buy again? Thanks in advance! Syd

    ReplyDelete
  50. Sorry about that. I need to get a new dog. lol

    I'm still holding from the Oct 3rd cycle low and have been adding on this drop. Next peak in cycle measures to mid January and then mid March.

    ReplyDelete