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Friday, November 25, 2011

Silver - Third Time is the Charm!

For Silver there have been 2 false starts up off the bottom.  A third and final bottom should be the "real" bottom according to the symmetry.  Should be interesting Monday morning.

Next week looks bullish for Silver.  The move up from point 3 to point 4 should be strong with few dips.

60min Chart

55 comments:

  1. SC, point 3 on your graph was a spike down to 26 on futures, wouldn't you expect a spike down to the lower fork line as a "3" this time as well from your symmetrical point of view? i.e. silver goes to sub 26/oz and THEN reverses to 4-5-6?

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  2. No, bottom right at the midfork is very high probability. I have another pattern that I have been working off as well that showed the spike down and rounded top earlier in Nov, and also it shows a bottom at this level.

    So the symmetry, fork, and pattern all line up for a bottom at point 3. This adds up to a great setup imo.

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  3. Monday morning does appear to be the sweet spot!

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  4. interesting ! I was looking for lower in pm's but they are acting real sticky so maybe........

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  5. EMINI DAILY...........LONG!


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/845/eminidaily1125.gif/

    Bood trading! joed


    “NO ONE CAN TRADE ANOTHER'S KNOWLEDGE WITHOUT LEARNING IT, NO EASY WAY OUT”

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  6. Added a couple more alignments to my previous $XII chart.

    http://tinyurl.com/86pl776

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  7. Hi There,

    If you are assuming a topping pattern for silver at 36 followed by a crash to 18 and then 6.50... then a multi decade rally, Im just wondering what your thoughts are with respect to ALF FIELDS gold analysis that shows gold about to enter its massive 3 wave of wave 3... projection is to 4500... do you assume then that alf is wrong?

    Thanks

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  8. I'm not familiar with Alf's work. However, I can tell you that my cycle work anticipates a drive for Gold to approx $2,000 top in the near term.

    The Gold bulls are not wrong, but just way too early. Eventually, yes, there is incredible upside for precious metals. This is not on the horizon. The bull market for PM's is going to be a decades long process not a couple years.

    The natural tendency is to focus on Price first, and then Time. Timing is important, and this is what the metal bulls need to fully consider.

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  9. Hi There,

    Thanks for your comments... maybe you should read alf fields latest editorial on gold going to 4500...
    http://www.gold-speculator.com/editors-picks/71074-alf-field-keynote-speech-sydney-gold-symposium-november-2011-a.html

    Armstrong has provided several key cycle turning dates as well, and states this run can last till 2020. However, he does not negate the possibility of us having a intermediate top in 2013, followed by a decline to 2016.

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  10. Thank you, I will have a look.

    I also have some eye-opening charts coming for Gold - just waiting for the right time to show them...

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  11. you're very welcome... Eye opening in the sense that gold is going to drop or go "TOOOO DA MOOON" heheheh

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  12. The market is either going to love the Italy news that the IMF is preparing funds for it, or they will hammer the market because it will highlight how dire the situation in Italy reall is.......I'm betting on the former but hoping for the latter as I'm sure it will hammer commodities early Monday Morning.

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  13. For now the important point about Gold is it should run to the $2,000 area. 2012 is going to be an exciting year for Gold, but one step at a time.

    Silver is hard to beat though, with large/fast action.

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  14. Sweet jessus.. You chaps nailed this on the head.

    ES + 18 points.

    I TAKE MY HATS OFF TO SC AND GABE!!!! with two hands

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  15. i seee... lets hope your charts have a TOOOO DA MOOON... look to them!

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  16. SC- you see gold at 2000 before the end of this year? Thanks

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  17. SC, Atilla seems to be out of the shorts with SM top rolling into 2012? Am i getting his last message right?
    Thanks.

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  18. I think January Blake. I'll show the chart with the plan for Gold up to that target.

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  19. Yes, Atilla is suggesting that this topping process takes longer into 2012. That is in tune with the charts I have shown also.

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  20. Futures are agreeing with my cycle low charts that I posted. You have to buy the dips because the larger cycle doesn't end until March.

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  21. EMINI PRICE PROJECTION

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/24/clipboard02r.gif/

    GOOD TRADING! joed



    “ONLY FOOLS, TRADING WITHOUT STOPS, GIVE BACK WHAT THEY ALREADY EARNED......”

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  22. Lol Thai, assuming SM is stock market.

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  23. SC,

    So your call is SPX up into the 6th?

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  24. Give him a little slack CK. Could go straight up hard the next few days and then consolidate.

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  25. I'm somewhat new here Zig. How high are you expecting in March?

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  26. EMINI CIT DATES


    http://imageshack.us/f/823/esdailycit.gif/

    GOOD TRADING! joed


    “IN MAPPING THE FUTURE………BANK THE PRESENT

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  27. Yes, up and top out around Dec 6th. I still like that 1240 area for the target.

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  28. ThaiHawaii, I'm looking for at least a test of the May peak by March.

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  29. EMINI 240 MIN EXIT

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/256/emini240min.gif/

    GOOD TRADING! joed

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  30. My analysis is very choppy for this week. Whipsaws this week look likely with a stronger surge up closer to the 6th. I wouldn't chase SPX right here that is for sure.

    I'm not convinced that Silver has bottomed yet either. The symmetry favors a lower low for point 3. We could still see that in the next day.

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  31. I have a turn date this coming 30 Nov. Dec 1-2 likely a big range day. My hunch is a downward bias, followed by a small rebound to 7 Dec, thereafter going to 14 Dec.

    Today big range day caused by Venus being at max declination and Mercury crossing the 23.5 deg declination. Both planets are out of bound, implying big range movement.

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  32. Zig

    I am double long here from 1253, but looking for 1250. Does your work show another big correction before the March peak?

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  33. Thanks Timer, there is a lot of similarity I am seeing with those dates.

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  34. ThaiHawaii, The middle of January should be the next pause with larger cycle hitting around mid of March.

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  35. SC, your hunch about lower low first for Ag may be correct. Money flows are topping out... What were you thinking for target - 28-29-ish on the futures or lower?

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  36. Just slightly lower for Silver looks possible. Around $30.25 or so for the future. Similar to what I've shown on the chart above. Blast up from there!

    Suspecting a weak opening tomorrow.

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  37. SC, i do not know if you are tracking Gold/Silver ratio, but it looks like its getting ready to move higher to 58-64 area. That projects lower silver prices before next leg up..

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  38. Gabe

    One hell of a CRISP trad. I like your style! VERY direct and REAL TIME! Thanks to all of ya! Syd

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  39. ZIG

    Are you saying you have held long and sat through this correction from the low and your add ons that you state? Is your thought to continue to add and hold no matter what like you did this run down? If you had protection how did you do it? Thanks, syd

    SC thanks for all the posts! syd

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  40. I think ZZ was long under 1100 so still looking very good. Heck of a run for ZZ this year.

    Many different ways to make $ in this mkt!!!

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  41. SC, I can't find any way to contact you so posting here ins the comments - I like your site and market commentary. I am a co-founder of a financial site that's been around since 2006. We're looking for new talent writing articles and offer a lucrative profit sharing program. Please contact me if you're interested

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  42. My email is: cyclicalanalyst@gmail.com

    Thanks

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  43. Hi Syd, I sold on the July 22nd cycle peak and started buying back at the August 9th and October 3rd low cycles. I can tell you that it was not very much fun for me from August to October. I did a little bit of trading during that time and never had any protection.

    There's an 80% chance that the period from November 12th thru January 2nd is positive and it has done this for 10 years straight. A break below the October low would not be good for me, but I like the odds that we go higher to the next cycle in January and March.

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  44. Zig

    Ok thanks! I get the "lack of fun" been there! lol I ouuld not sit through the drawdown or watching those peofits slide! Will look on! Tx, syd

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  45. $GDOW chart in pretty Christmas lights. :-) November 25th cycle low should hold…

    http://tinyurl.com/88b8eq5

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  46. SC, do you use money flow T's in your work?
    Thanks.

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  47. I'm somewhat familiar with them, but it's not a tool I use regularly. What do you think of them?

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  48. Syd/Sami

    Thanks for your kind words.............

    Syd remember you still have to develop your own style......any style can be fine tuned! Drawdowns etc. can be fine tune.......no different than I have had to do to my own trading and auto system! Best, joed

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  49. SC, i'll post a chart on this but often it works really well. It helps to nail down the timing, not the price.

    ZZ, i saw you use T symmetry for the price moves, do you utilize symmetry of money flows as well?

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  50. 1inblue

    In reality T Theory, money flow T's and the static cycles are really the Gann square without the sides...good trading! joed

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  51. Hi !
    I agree with you SC.
    According to my "silver" model :
    Wednesday: bearish
    Thursday and Friday : bullish
    On Friday, silver will close above $32
    That is all for now but there is more to come.

    Bobo

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