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Sunday, November 13, 2011

$SPX - Week Ahead

As anticipated there has been strength into Nov 14th.  Much of my work suggests a high around Nov 17th, and then decline into Nov 21st.  The theme continues to be the same - November whipsaws.

15min Chart















Since late October, NDX has been weakening relative to SPX. 

30min Chart

82 comments:

  1. EMINI FLOOW UP

    Price came off confluence as expected.............Best, joed

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/855/es2401111b.gif/

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/269/es240only.gif/


    “TIME MAKES PRICE RIGHT”

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  2. EMINI SMALL TIME FRAME ENTRANCE

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/585/esboth.gif/

    Good Trading! joed



    “KNOW THE GEOMETRY AND YOU WILL KNOW YOUR TRADE”

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  3. I don't care what time cycles or whatever the SPX is saying, the fact is that Eurozone bond yields are begining to signal disaster for the EU.

    Markets are about to collapse and the herd have been hoodwinked into the biggest "bull trap" in history!

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  4. Oh one more thing, go and compare late 2007 to now and look what is about to befall the markets

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  5. Beetle, I've shown that 2007 comparison, and will continue to update on that similarity. One step at a time...

    On friday I mentioned a backtest of the turquoise line at 1250. We have done that, now can push higher into Nov 17th.

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  6. The entire world is aware of the 2007-2008 analogue. Back then we were told how the housing and credit problems were to be contained and thus not to worry. Today we are inundated with bad news daily form Europe and here at home and everyone is waiting for the "impending collapse". By my take, things are never that easy. Look for the market to continue surprising to the upside near/intermediate term

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  7. I agree, and want to be clear in that I do see the 2007 pattern continuing to play out, but only to a certain extent, and it is a different ending this time around.

    It won't be "predictable".

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  8. PK, so instead we'll just get a lot of volatility. Powerful upswings followed by as powerful downswings.

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  9. AM, that is exactly right.

    We want to focus on the mkt in front of us. Right now that means whipsaws. Then, when the timing is right, switch to a bearish/bullish position.

    That is the key to know when to switch strategies, and that is why the timing cycles become very valuable.

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  10. I am guessing this high volatility may actually lead to money leaving the markets and causing full blown deflationary sell off sometime in the future.

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  11. AM, I think you are right! All this volatility spells a crash later.

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  12. So the strategy for most should be capital preservation and waiting patiently for the big move. This is where money is made. Now, how do we filter out the noise and get the timing right?

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  13. ES FOLLOW UP.......the beat goes on!

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/840/esbothfollow.gif/

    Good trading! joed

    “WELCOME TO THE JOURNEY WITHIN”

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  14. AM - we filter out the noise with the timing cycles and patterns. I have charts coming to show what I mean.

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  15. EMINI FOLLOW up


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/526/eminifollowbothz.gif/

    Good Trading, joed


    “KNOW WHEN NOT TO TAKE SMALL PROFIT ON A LARGE TRADE”

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  16. RLX leading sector appears to be heading in to a 3 down & nice H&S topping pattern: http://screencast.com/t/XpKYrZ7cfF
    I have ES bottoming ~22nd.

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  17. ES 11/15

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/259/es1115.gif/

    Good trading! joed



    “MOST THAT SAY INDICATORS ARE LAGGING,
    HAVE LAGGED IN THEIR “STUDY TIME”
    OF HOW TO USE THEM”

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  18. SC, whats your take on metals here? gold and silver holding up well despite dollar advancing. Do you think this will continue on from here into 2012 and we have already seen our lows for 2011 at 26/1532? -Thank you.

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  19. Silver is trading sideways in the oval as expected. Just more than half of the rounded top is complete now.

    There is some sideways yet to finish the top, and then it'll plunge again to test the $26-28 area.

    I'm very pleased with the way it is trading. It is nearly exact per the pattern.

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  20. I'll let you know when Silver is ready to go off the cliff.

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  21. USD has been sending a clear signal. 7 of the last 11 trading days it has closed above its rising 50dma.

    Can't believe stock markets are dithering whilst the dollar, Euro yields and CDS's signal disaster

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  22. what is your take on oil SC? Thanks!

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  23. I can't see oil going much higher here. Looking top heavy.

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  24. beetle juice, something is bothering me about USDX i was expecting a strong break out of these levels but its seem to be struggling, is it a sign that it may head for a double bottom from here to 71 ? we did leave a nice hole at 75-76 level...

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  25. I would think oil trades much lower by mid-Dec.

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  26. SPX backtested the turquoise line again today. There should be upward pressure into tomorrow.

    Thankfully we should be out of this slop soon, and into some cleaner moves!

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  27. RUT stronger today, possibly an indication

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  28. SC, thank-you for your efforts. Wondering where you see the SPX heading? 1254 range or greater? 1278?

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  29. Quite a solid push is possible 1280's. Let's review targets later today and tomorrow morning. Because of all the chop lately, the timing turn dates have been helpful.

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  30. Hi SC

    Would tomorrow be the day you would still expect the top with today being down quite a bit from yesterday? And then it will drop to 21st still?


    Thanks!
    David

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  31. Yes, that is what the cycle work suggests.

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  32. with the last hour drop in spx, does that affect your cycle work for tomorrow SC?


    Thanks!

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  33. EMINI 11/16

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/713/clipboard02e.gif/



    “A TRADERS RESULTS ARE DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL TO HIS CYCLES AT THE TIME. SOME CALL IT BEING IN THE ZONE”

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  34. Weak finish to the day. It doesn't change my work as far as timing. Let's see if it bounces tomorrow.

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  35. ES DAILY CYCLE UPDATE



    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/205/escycle1116.gif/



    “DRAW WITH THE THOUGHTS OF LEANING ON IT WITH TIME………..IF IT FEELS WEAK DON’T LEAN HARD!

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  36. EMINI 240 MIN


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/847/es240min1116.gif/



    “WHEN TIME IS RIGHT……. LINES ARE CLEARER”

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  37. Gabe, thanks for the charts. What are you targets if it fails to the downside?

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  38. Hi SC

    curious to know what kind of bounce you predicting for tomorrow. Consider today end of market drop, even with a bounce, may only get back to today's high. Is that what you expecting as well or some where higher?


    Thanks!

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  39. One giant ramp is about to commence. Hope you've been buying the dips.
    This cycle doesn't end until January and possibly March..

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  40. Which way zigzag? With the eurocrisis and bond yields going nuts, I don't think there is anything that will support this market going higher from now to January...I think the shoe drops first, and quite low.

    Do you have shorter time frames you work with? What about number targets?

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  41. SC, for tomorrow to be a bullish day on the SPX (you said the same about the 14th by the way), it will have to be a 40-50 point rally.

    Spanish and French bond auctions going on tonight before the market opens.....I don't think you have a chance here.

    What am I missing? Could your cycle be off?

    You also mention that the next low should occur around the 21st, which can make sense if there are issues with the super committee, however I wonder from what level will that low happen, as I think we could already be on our way there and have missed a Short opportunity.

    Thoughts?

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  42. SS76, I posted these charts and others at the October low. We are following cycle patterns from 1998 and 1966. INDU has been positive from Nov 12th thru Jan 2nd for 10 straight years. I'm pretty sure they'll think something up to make it 11 :-)

    http://tinyurl.com/c9y9xje

    http://tinyurl.com/d8vok3t

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  43. The 14th was not an up day, but it was a top and the futures were up that morning. These timing cycles have been working quite well.

    I do think bounce tomorrow. Fri/Mon look weaker and mid next week looks very positive again. Bulls/bears have been disappointed in Nov. It is just whipsaws that we are seeing.

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  44. Morning SC

    wondering if you still think the bounce is on today? this morning dropping so far still (continue drop from yesterday)


    Thanks!

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  45. I think so, there is support at 1230.

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  46. Silver close to a short term bottom. $2 bounce coming.

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  47. Hi SC

    was that the bounce you were seeing just now for spx? didnt really do a whole lot of rising...tomorrow looks scary if this is a bounce.


    Thanks!

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  48. Just starting to bounce imo.

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  49. I like this Silver trade better than SPX. High probability trade, better upside, and I see another Silver trade following it. Much cleaner action than SPX.

    I'll update the Silver chart today.

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  50. EMINI ....................

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/14/es1117intra.gif/

    Good trading! joed

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  51. So you figure Silver is a buy here?

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  52. INDU BASIC GEOMETRY

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/846/indu.gif/

    Good trading! joed

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  53. I like Silver for a $2 bounce only.

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  54. SILVER DAILY


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/52/silverdaily.gif/

    Good trading! joed

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  55. $2 would be great, but the market seems set for a major drop. Good US economic data offset by Euro news.....bond yields rising, seems like a credit rating downgrade is coming.

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  56. Other thing is, if you are seeing market weakness for the next 2 days, don't you think Silver will also have downside still?

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  57. That is a good point. Remember, for now I just see a sideways mkt with whipsaws. May see some minor weakness Fri/Mon.

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  58. Thats just my opinion, but you are saying that your timing cycle on Silver points to an up today or Tomorrow?

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  59. The upside for Silver would be into next week. Over a few days.

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  60. Around $35 for the Silver future, would not trust it beyond that.

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  61. GC holding TL http://screencast.com/t/hQlJXyynbO1
    http://screencast.com/t/XmKlsrugx8K
    taking some off here
    Buy ZSL Limit 11.16 -- -- 10:05:37 11/15/11

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  62. Thanks SC. Would be great if you had an updated Silver chart given your topping formation.

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  63. Yes, I will show the updated chart for Silver later today. There are some nice moves coming imo.

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  64. SC, they can drive silver up and down easy in thin volume when US markets are closed. If general trend is down - then shouldn't we stick to it?

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  65. I'm just working off of my Silver pattern. Very pleased with the way it is working.

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  66. Hi SC

    almost half trading day gone, we got a few small bounce, nothing huge. Curious if you see in your cycle for now are we heading downward till 21st?


    Thanks!

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  67. Still may bounce today, it's been sluggish thus far. That's right I would be looking at downside (may only be minor) into the 21st in any case.

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  68. Gabe... Silver just dipped below 32.00 does that mean we go to 30?

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  69. spx at 1225.31 now...looking bearish so far...is this a trap for bear before the bounce you see SC?


    Thanks!

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  70. next stop for GC?
    http://screencast.com/t/9WFvkknKs
    liking mid 1100's for SPX

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  71. EMINI FOLLOW UP........BINGO!
    GOLD/SILVER DAILY!

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/190/es240daily1117.gif/


    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/228/goldsilver.gif/

    Good TRADING! joed

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  72. Hi SC

    we just had a landslide in snp, your thoughts?


    Thanks!

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  73. TBONDS DAILY

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/163/tbonds.gif/

    +++ JOHN W. ....PLEASE EMAIL ME AGAIN,
    I LOST YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS!

    Good Trading! joed

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  74. SC, do you think this is it for silver's downside for now, for that bounce that you mentioned?

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  75. Out ZSL for now..
    'bout time this rollsover: http://screencast.com/t/8rRRgTunOhcR

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  76. Ok, all support levels are being taken out. What to do?

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  77. No bounce today so the conclusion is that the cycle high came in late yesterday. That means down pressure into 21st.

    For Silver I think the way to play is to put in a stop just below the low today.

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  78. SC, i hope silver bounces, i closed some of my shorts. But looks like it may be an elevator down to new lows.

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  79. Hi SC

    Are you sure it will still be 21st for the decline to? I mean if your cycle high got push 1 day in advance, how can the rest stay the same? Confused.


    Thanks!

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  80. I do think Silver likely to rebound, hit an important support today. Chart coming.

    I'm going to look closer at SPX - have been eyeing the 1187 area for a while. It seems the cycle came in early, but it wasn't much early, and I don't see that impacting future dates. Nov 21st still makes sense.

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