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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

$SPX - Big Bounce

The probability for a large bounce seems quite high now. 

30min Chart















I plan to show some more big picture charts soon. 

2day Chart

103 comments:

  1. So no new lows by end of the week?

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  2. Megaphone.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/f56208d3-a024-4c74-aea4-a232dbd72cbc

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  3. EW analysis.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/dcacb8fa-54f2-4007-ba63-eab31e162c68

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  4. http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/fee0548a-11d6-41a6-9a2b-f29c1cdccf96

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  5. Hi SC

    what you think today's action going to be like for S&P?

    Thanks!

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  6. Let's see how it shapes up today ckorey. I have a lot more to say about timelines with more detailed analysis coming.

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  7. Looks ok so far InvestBB, still quite choppy.

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  8. My newsletter guy thinks 95% of selling is still ahead of us. Gives gold and other metals 2-3 more days and then down big time. Deflation across the board. We shall see. You can toss a coin at this point and be right. lol

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  9. SC

    Still looking at a weak Friday before a bounce next Mon/Tues?

    Thanks for all your work

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  10. Looking good at the moment SC, what is your target for today? what time frame are you looking at for this rally to peak? Are you looking at a lower low under 1100 on the next leg down before the big 1300+ rally. Thanks SC

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  11. Yesterday's setup worked well. I'm not sure if we see that much more today. In this mkt there are certain spots that have higher probability, and yesterday was one example.

    I may just lock in the profit, and watch for a while. Today/tomorrow are still mixed in my cycle work, Tues is the day that stands out the most to me as very positive.

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  12. SC let us know if you lock in the profits today.

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  13. SC, considering you went long last week with the S&P above 1200, I am not sure how you can really have profits at this point. Even if you averaged down yesterday, you would be lucky to break even at best. Seems odd to me when you say you are considering locking in profits.

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  14. Staying above SC's August 9-10 low here should get us to sometime around August 24th on the NDX.

    http://tinyurl.com/443g7qh

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  15. Hi SC

    do you see today's silver and gold price as a sign of the plummet you talking about?

    good time to short?


    Thanks!

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  16. Profits?

    "SC said...Yes, I'm stepping in huge here long SPX.
    August 4, 2011 12:36 PM"

    It was at 1240. How are you taking a profit? There's nothing wrong about being wrong. It's a gamble right now, but to say that you're making a profit when you were buying heavy 100 above us doesn't make sense. Not even if you had averaged down at the absolute bottom. Good luck guys, make sure you do your due diligence. I'm out.

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  17. LOL InvestBB are you serious dude?

    Your asking advice from someone who's been completely wrong thus far about the market specially silver...lol

    according to him Silver should plumet already....its rising higher and it will keep rising until S&P breaks the lower low. After that might be a good time....hmmm time frame probably say 1 week to 5 weeks.

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  18. man, talk about fair weather fans

    folks SC is doing his best and sharing publicly his views on the market, can't ask for more than that

    always do your own due diligence as its your account balance at stake

    fwiw, i feel gold is making an intermediate top
    and equities and intermediate bottom in this area glta

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  19. I sold from yesterday's late day entry. I did gain ground from yesterday. That is what I meant. That is correct, I do have more ground to catch up.

    There is going to be plenty of opportunity in this mkt, and rather than focus on what didn't work, I prefer to focus on the next trades. What else can one do?

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  20. Hi SC

    Do you expect any weakness today with S&P going into the end of trade hour.

    Thanks!

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  21. Took some profits today on longs just in case, have to stay nimble.

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  22. i am out of long from yesterday purchase, into short for now, too much rise, think the market may die down during lunch.

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  23. I don't have a strong feeling either way for the rest of the day. Just prefer to wait and watch here.

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  24. out of my short this morning with a small profit, same as SC wait and watch...

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  25. what are your guys' take on shorting TLT (aka buying TBT).

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  26. In a little bit with short with S&P.

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  27. 1inabluemoon:

    Can you tell me what newsletter you follow? If you don't want to post it here, you can e-mail me nealinnagoya (at) hotmail.com

    Thank you,

    A

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  28. It seems the signal of SLV is leading SPX now.

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  29. out of my little short, wait and watch till close.

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  30. SC,Do you think tomorrow will be a down day,Thanks.

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  31. As improbable as it seems, I really wouldn't be surprised if the short squeeze continues tomorrow. I'm going to see how the open looks tomorrow.

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  32. I was going to sell some of my SPX longs earlier in the day, because I was still down and just cut my losses. But, SC you posted that you were out of your longs, so I did the opposite and hung on until now. Sold 2/3 of my longs and now in the green with actual good profits. I can let the other 1/3 ride, and if it goes up fast, use a small short as a hedge.

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  33. Hi SC

    wondering your take on silver tomorrow?


    Thanks!

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  34. Well if you like to do the opposite of me, then you would have shorted the close yesterday.

    Nobody can complain about my setup for today.

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  35. Hi SC

    are you going to hold your S&P position long over night today?


    thanks!

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  36. You have been completely wrong the last few weeks. You missed out on the huge drop the last few weeks and you missed out on most of the upwards move today. I held on because you said you were out today and I turned my loss into a profit. That's why I made a comment earlier in the day when you said that you were locking in profits. Sorry can't have profits if are actually down. Just interesting that you missed out on all the big moves so far. But enough said, let's make money as that is what trading the markets are all about.

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  37. InvestBB,

    SC said he was out a few hours ago.

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  38. Sure got some real Ass-Holes on this site. Sorry SC has to put up with you bums. Why do you even come here. I'll tell you; to get the information SC freely provides. Your mothers would be ashamed of you. Do you tease the handicap too ? Pull the wings off pretty butterflys ? Kick puppies ? Just shut the F up!

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  39. Well said sqroot,Really appreciate your analysis SC.

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  40. Congrats on the August 9-10 call SC! Ka-Ching! :-)

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  41. amen to that sqroot.

    SC, about time for a paid-subscription system; don't have to be much, just enough to keep the assholes at bay.

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  42. I agree Sqroot why do these people even bother coming on here if they don't like it. No one in the world can get things 100% right all the time. SC puts in allot of effort, give him a break dudes.

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  43. Thanks again for all your analysis SC, keep up the great work and let's make some great calls to show these assholes that you kick ass :)

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  44. When things are free we human tend to take it for granted (I.E.Sunshine, Oxygen in the air, perfect speed of earth rotation, gravity, balance atmospheric pressure on earth). SC send all unpleasant people love and charge them for your services. Recommend them to attend a class to understand the laws of probabilities - It helps to stay focused, respect and, appreciate scholastic work that you have been providing at no cost- I am obliged. Thank you SC.

    SAL

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  45. SC keep it up, let's not get distracted by folks who want to make life difficult for others. Thanks for your frequent updates and insight.

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  46. SC your forecast about 10 August was phenomenal!
    Thank you.

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  47. Nice forecast SC about the weakness in stockmarket.

    The forecast about the weakness into 9-10 of august was awsome!

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  48. http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/2d27731b-4242-4b45-8be5-48e56fdecd5a

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  49. SPX/Month

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/7fdafcfa-f1ad-4eac-bea8-63b7917930b1

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  50. Hi SC are you looking at going long again here or will you wait for a possible pull back?

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  51. SC,Do you like the open?Thanks.

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  52. sc,
    when do u think is a good time to short gold /silver?

    thanks

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  53. Hi SC are you on line today ?

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  54. SC. I really appreciate your work. And I hope you still could keep it up and share your view with us. People usually will not cherish the free stuff, instead some of them even like to blame the blogger in any loss occurred. So for all, if you are following SC analysis to invest, please read the disclaimer at the end of SC's blog. Cheer up, SC.

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  55. SC I concur with Roger and many others that appreciate and follow your work. The people that criticize are just not worth it. I and many others find your work very interesting and do not in anyway blame you or behave in a disrespectful manner. I as well as others appreciate your work and look forward to your analysis. Thanks again SC and please don't let those rude grubs get you down.

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  56. Agree! I have been read SC work since his followers are about 20, look at that number is now 57. If you guys remember, there came a newsletter editor a while ago asking to publish SC's work because of the intact analysis. I'm the one that hope to keep SC's blog in a non-disclosure state because it will lead lots of attacker. I'm not sure if SC eventually accept that invitation or not. I see so many cases that a free blog been rudely attack and eventually lead to a shut down because of those free lunch taker. No one can always win in the stock, focus what you have and the current status as well as risk management. Cheers!

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  57. SC,I really appreciate your work,Please don't stop sharing your market views.

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  58. Just in case, if you consider to shut down this site or turn it into a subscriber state. Please send me email to rogerspass at gmail.com, thanks SC.

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  59. SC, thanks for the analysis. Are you planning anymore updates on silver/gold? Gold may have finally topped out. A long way to fall from here. Symmetry chart update would be great!
    Thanks for the blog again.

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  60. Guys,

    I think SC has thicker skin than that to be bothered by a few clowns.

    Maybe he is just busy.

    I for one will give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Looking for a fade into the close.

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  61. A wild storm rolled through overnight, and took my internet connection with it. Finally up, but sporadic, and I don't have my instruments working.

    Mkt is holding, but Financials are down and that gives some concerns for Monday. Either they are taking a rest or leading down. Unfortunately I don't have everything working properly so not sufficient to take a position.

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  62. Hi SC, not good news about the storm but good to see you are back. Hopefully you can get all up and running over the weekend. Look forward to your updates of charts and analysis in the next couple of days. Have a good weekend SC, take care.

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  63. Hi SC,Hope everything is ok at your end,Good to see you are back.Looking forward to your next week's market analysis.Take care and have a great weekend.

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  64. SPX/Day.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/99093350-fe47-422a-9a1e-10ce110bf394

    And GLD/Week. When a parabolic shows up on the week, look out.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/84ddf172-eb23-4830-b9f8-e1079501a5dc

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  65. so katzo are you long SPX here?

    Thanks for a great blog SC, very impressed by the aug 10 call.

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  66. Back up and running smoothly again. Thanks for all the encouraging words! Emotions run high when the markets act as they have recently. The frustrations are understandable in many cases.

    There is always a choice in life to focus on the positives or on the negatives. This will become increasingly important to remember in coming years.

    Thanks again.

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  67. SC, possible to elaborate on your point "this will become increasingly important to remember in coming years"? Thanks again for your work. Are you possibly referring to the "fourth turning"?

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  68. http://timingsolution.net/index.php/en/component/k2/item/172-long-term-forecast-for-dow-jones-index-5/08/2011

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  69. Mater cycle is down til 2013/14 and will take lows out!

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  70. Nuggy,

    The coming years look challenging economically so it will be increasingly important to look on the bright side. There always is a bright side no matter how gloomy things may appear.

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  71. SC,

    Any chance for a silver update today? I know you speculated that silver might stay strong until the 12th, so are you anticipating a reversal in the coming days?

    Thanks.

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  72. Generally I have waiting for the Silver patterns to develop as it has been relatively quiet. I'm due to review, and will do that.

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  73. Hi SC

    wondering what your take on S&P today? went like 20 point up and now back to 10 point ish up. Think it may go back higher soon?


    Thanks!

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  74. Hi SC,Do you still think tuesday will be super bullish?Thanks.

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  75. Tuesday is the most positive day in my cycle work. In practise it may not line up perfectly on that day. I figured I would see how other indications line up later today.

    Tested 1200 which was a natural resistance spot.

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  76. Looking for the SP cycle to close dowb for the day......key reversal bar!

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  77. Hi SC

    wondering your thought on the close of S&P today? Do you plan to hold overnight if you have position in S&P right now for long?


    Thanks!

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  78. I'm watching and waiting for now. Not much action out there today. I'll wait and see how things shape up near the close and decide from there.

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  79. just passed 1200 for abit...with tomorrow's earning, this may go higher tomorrow?

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  80. SLV seems follow with SPX today?

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  81. One fact that makes me a little leery of the rally at this point is that the financials (Rifin) topped out first thing Friday morning, and have not surpassed that level today. S&P has pushed higher today.

    It may not be an issue, but it does have me leaning on the conservative side.

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  82. Financials (IMO) are only relevant with regards to the big picture. Their "garbage rally" from the 2009 lows is evidence of how sick this sector really is. Indeed, shorter term they do act as leaders from time-to-time but I don't view them as a "necessary" block for the rally to continue or fail.

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  83. I am more leary of the fact that S&P been going up for a couple days now with out much of retracement happening with no news at all...feels like any news will either plunge it again or raise the bar again.

    SC, can you let me know what you mean by being on the conservative side, are you still averaging down your long position, but just slowly? Or just not doing any averaging at the moment?


    Thanks!

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  84. I'm just waiting for some action and further development. We've already seen a nice bounce, and the last few days have been slow.

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  85. Hi SC hope all is well after the storm last week. I went long on SPX as well last week and took profits too early on this bounce. What sort of action do you see developing? I thought we may see a pull back to around 1260 before this resumed its upward push to 1250-1280 area. Then down again to test lows before shooting up again. Will you be updating your SPX charts shortly?
    Thanks SC

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  86. Hi Muzz

    you mean 1160 instead of 1260 right?

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  87. Yes sorry about that, 1160 it should say :)

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  88. doesnt look like much different between now and end of market...SC are you planning on doing any purchase of long S&P today? only 10 mins left

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  89. I will wait for the morning and take it from there. Yes, will have charts coming soon.

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  90. Hi SC

    thank you and looking forward to your charts and analysis soon.

    have a good day.


    Thanks!

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  91. This rally is by no means over. Today was a major accumulation day, and such days never mark the tops of a rally. I am expecting some pullback before the rally resumes however, to suck in the unwitting bears. I'm hoping we can see 1300 again, but 1250-1260 looks more probable.

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  92. I felt price would set back Monday but rather has carried into the night session to do so........the cycle as I mentioned is down until the 25th!

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  93. Hi SC

    what your take on the event today with S&P and silver price?

    cannot believe silver have not drop yet and still rising, still ponder the plunge you forecasted long ago. looking for insight.


    Thanks!

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  94. The date window for the cycle top is the 17th............so this becomes the time to watch into it + or -.............

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  95. I see it basically that way as well. Mid this week looks most positive tapering off into the weekend but still positive. Next week looks quite negative again.

    Silver has just slowly been grinding up. I'm overdue for some updated charts, those will be coming soon.

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  96. To sum it up I have a cycle top the 17th and pressure down into the 26th! Good trading!

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  97. Doesnt look like the market liking the EU news, s&p dropping 18 points, curious is this a good buying long opp or a shorting opp SC?


    Thanks!

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  98. Nothing too compelling in either direction - sideways trade for 3 days now. A waiting game...

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  99. Hi SC

    going into next week with negative outlook, is it safe to assume that silver will go towards your target of $43 next week then?


    Thanks!

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  100. The timing for Silver is tricky since it moves with the mkt sometimes and inverse others. Gold lately is more consistantly inverse.

    There are patterns that I am watching for both Gold and Silver. They are getting closer imo, and waiting patiently for them.

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  101. Hi SC what is your take on SPX action currently? I have been standing aside waiting for some direction at the moment, are you looking at taking any positions. Looking forward to some chart updates and analysis. Thanks SC

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