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Tuesday, August 16, 2011

$SPX - Big Bounce Update

The market has reached into the minimum target range shown on the previous set of charts.  For the last three trading days, the lower orange fibonacci fan has been tested.

For this week my cycle work is generally positive.  There are some trend lines that could be tested starting at 1216.  For next week, the cycles indicate that chances of a pullback increase.

4hour Chart

30 comments:

  1. TIME is in my window of the 17th topping.......end of day should be weak!

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  2. Hi SC thanks for the update, are you looking at taking any positions on the SPX or PM's at the moment or are you just waiting. Do you see any big moves in the market coming like testing lows again or surging up? Thanks again SC

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  3. We've been in this range for a while, action has been slower. I've been wanting to see what the end of this week looks like. Sort of day by day chop right now.

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  4. Hi SC looks like big sell off in the making today, SPX could be headed down to 1120-1130 area on this drop before another bounce. How are you reading the action?

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  5. Oh yea.......cycle high alright!

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  6. The peak weakness in my cycle work shows up early next week. So what may be most likely is that we see some bounces today/tomorrow, and then bottom out early next week. Higher low seems more likely.

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  7. Hi SC - great blog. I really appreciate it :)
    What's your long term projection for SPX ? Do you think we'll go under 666 after a signicicant top will be made (or was made 2nd May 11) ? Thank you.

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  8. SC and gaberocks, some nice market calls. I'm seeing some real weakness coming next week on the S&P 500... still not sure if it will be a buying opportunity though ... I'm wondering if we will see fall of 2008 again.

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  9. Including 2008, the mkt has crashed 3 times in 3 years, and the mkts have not been able to make higher highs since 2000. It is pretty difficult to spin that into anything positive as far as a long term outlook. However, in the cycle work, the timing does not appear to be set for a major downturn just yet.

    Best to take it one step at a time. There will be plenty of surprises to come for both bulls and bears with this bubble.

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  10. Hi SC and gaberocks,

    these were awesome calls... SC, I didnt quite understand your previous comment so just to clarify, according to your pattern are you seeing the bottom today, tomorrow, or earlier next week...

    Thanks again

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  11. The worst of the selling looks like early next week. For this week may find some footing here.

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  12. Thanks a lot SC. That clarifies it.

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  13. fivr

    Try to be more specific in the time frame you are asking about..one a gets better response if the person does not have to read to far into it! I have a choppy cycle into the 27th so in my mind it will be a traders market til then........long term I have the March lows coming out into 2013! Good trading!

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  14. Hi gaberocks. Yes I should have been more specific. I was looking for the short term until the end of next week. So your feedback was spot on.. I shorted the SPX on tuesday and I wanted to see if I should hold on to it until next week.. Again thanks a lot for the nice call for weakness on the 17th...

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  15. I took profit into lows as I see this as choppy and a rebound in this area of time! Good trading!

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  16. Gaberocks11,
    "long term I have the March lows coming out into 2013! "

    You're talking about the March 2009 low ?

    Thanks

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  17. Hi Gaberocks11

    curious what your take on market tomorrow, would the rebound you mentioning happen tomorrow or end of day today?


    Thanks!

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  18. Gaberocks11,
    Thanks. Do you have a view of OIL market ? Do you think it will go after SPX and OIL also will be testing lows from 2008/2009 ? Thank you !

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  19. Investbb

    I am leaning towards today.............but with this type of profit banked.......I am looking for the right strutural setup! I am not one to give much back! I have ES support at the lows and 1123... Good trading!

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  20. Hi Gaberocks11

    wondering what your bounce target maybe if it bounce today?


    Thanks!

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  21. investbb

    Cuz of the style of the trade I will try to stick it....move stops up into targets and time rather than a target at the beginning! Long with 1134 stop!

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  22. Hi Gaberocks11, your target of 1134 reached! you still shorting?

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  23. Hi SC

    what your take on today's selloff, you think is over exaggerated a bit?


    Thanks!

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  24. It does seem overdone, suspect tomorrow is firmer.

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  25. investbb

    All done shorting for now............great day!

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  26. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  27. Is this pullback another part of that massive bear sucker's trap?

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  28. Ultimately, yes, I anticipate that is the case.

    I have some charts coming to expand on that.

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