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Sunday, August 21, 2011

Silver - Pushing Higher

Silver bounced at the Main Red Trendline, and has been pushing higher.  The $45 area was mentioned previously.  Silver topped first in April, and Gold topped after.  This time, I suspect Gold may top first since the roles are reversed and this time Gold is parabolic (as Silver was in April).   

I have a specific topping pattern in mind for Silver.  The geometry will be reviewed with additional detail coming along with an update on symmetry. 

Gold updates will be coming soon as well.     

4hour Chart

32 comments:

  1. Thanks for your update, SC. Did you foresee any possibility for a rally any time soon in dollar?

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  2. SWING TOP in BONDS AND GOLD..........SWING BOTTOM IN ES!

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  3. Do you have any target for ES in short term period ? Thanks.

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  4. Hi SC, how was your weekend? I agree with gabeeroscks I think gold near top here, we may drop $100-$200 to $1700 -$1750 in the next few days. Then bounce and re-test highs or make slight new highs in late Sept early Oct and that should be the top for quite some time in gold IMHO. What are your thoughts and also thoughts on SPX? Thanks

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  5. Roger, let me take a closer look at the dollar.

    My cycle work is negative for S&P for most of the week. It is not overly negative though, and so the same type of chop with a weak bias is favored. Back and fill type action, but I am not sure we will even break 1100.

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  6. Muzz, had a nice weekend, thanks. Yes, Gold should be really close to topping. A little longer for Silver as I expect it to top after Gold. I still see a major move down for both afterwards.

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  7. Financials are struggling this morning, leading lower it appears.

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  8. SC, how much of a decline do you see in metals here? Realistically? 5-10%? After such huge run up in both metals, any significant dip will be bought by buyers who wanted to get in but did not and missed the train. Many thought that we'll get the lower bottom to enter long positions, but markets tricked 90% of traders. All i see here is regular dips.

    Do not forget that we are entering seasonally strong months for both metals and the printing press is not stopping anytime soon.

    Just my 2 cents whatever they are worth these days...

    p.s. seasonal data 37year average: http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html

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  9. One more thing, anybody not familiar with Martin Armstrong - i suggest taking a look - http://www.martinarmstrong.org

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  10. Thanks.

    Waiting for metals to top, and won't be taking positions until there is sufficient evidence of that.

    Once they top, I think the declines will be severe. The reason is that they have been pushing higher for so many years. When we take a step back and zoom out, the long term charts look very top heavy for the metals. It is always deceptive in these situations, and the charts always look impressive until they fall as we have seen in May with Silver.

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  11. Hi Gaberocks11

    Curious to know what your take on S&P this week with today's small bounce, you think this maybe a trap? and a more dramatic drop await during the rest of this week?


    Thanks!

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  12. InvestBB

    HMMM...........this has been covered lst week a couple times! I expect a swing cycle low in the window of 25th to 27th with this turn coming producing a choppy down, day trading market til then!

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  13. SC, how do you know that the time for them to top is now? not 3-6-12 months, or a year later?

    You correctly pointed out that this is a secular bull for metals that we are in, lasting many years.

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  14. From my point of view this could be the time for a severe correction to metals. It would feel like an end to the PM bull mkt, and could last quite a while, but actually longer term I see it as just the beginning still to a much larger bull mkt lasting decades.

    The reason I suspect it is due is because of the time cycles that I use for reversals. I haven't said much about this yet, and so that is a great question.

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  15. SC, it would be really helpful to a lot of us here if you spilled a bit more beans regarding this important reversal for metals then.

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  16. Hi SC

    same as 1inbluemoon, looking forward to more of your insight on metals. Waiting for the drop to add more for long term hold, but doesnt seem to be happening these days....


    Thanks!

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  17. I will. I've been waiting for the right spot, and it does seem to be maturing. Plenty more to say in coming days.

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  18. Hi SC

    GS tanking hard today, did you happen to grab some?

    what you think friday Ben's speech will do to the market price?


    Thanks!

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  19. No, but I thought it was interesting.

    I have a plan for this week with charts coming. Let's take it one step at a time. A lot of factors are coming together to suggest an important week.

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  20. SC

    I think since gold broke 1900 it will reach to 2000 on steroid tonight or tomorrow and may take silver to above 46 or might take it to top of the cycle

    What is your silver target?

    Thanks
    SB

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  21. so many times, rather than focusing on riding the wave traders are preoccupied with attempting to catch the pullback and miss out on the big swings; case in point is gold. In so many sites, including this one, there has been a predominance of "how sharp a correction the metals will have". Indeed that day is drawing nearer and we may even be there yet look at the giant move that has been missed or maybe "fought against" may be a better term.

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  22. Stockboom,

    I will be fine tuning targets, but for now roughly $45 for SLV (or $46 future).

    PK,

    That is a good point, and so true particularly in the case of commodities.

    In the case of Silver, I did recognize and mentioned many times that Silver was setting up for a large push higher to around $44-45.

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  23. I can see gold/silver ratio reaching 1:20 by the end of the year. Pull up monthly chart, draw resistance lines and count 5 faves down. May massacre could have been wave 4 with most aggressive wave 5 down to follow (silver breaks 50/60/70 USD/oz and only after that corrects).

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  24. My Gold short, as posted above, working nicely with price and time........moving stops to break even!

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  25. Blake

    I trade time first and layer multiple trades (swing/day) at once as this is a swing trade so I will day trade inside it.......my day trade target was just hit! Good trading!

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  26. Hi Gaberocks11

    what your take on the S&P action today? think it is a trap? going lower tomorrow?


    Thanks!

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  27. SC- still looking for gold and silver to march higher? Or is this finally the start of the decline?

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  28. Afer this dip, a retest of the highs or double top for Gold may be most probable. There isn't enough to say for sure yet, but Gold may have topped.

    Silver is more likely to have one more strong push in it after this dip. The theory is Silver tops after Gold.

    I'd like to see more later this week for the metals.

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  29. Looking to take swing shorts out once todays lows are taken out in the area of 1780 DEC contract, watching tommorrow, moving stops.......day trade flat on lows, nice profit......once swing trade out will look to short at higher price! Good trading!

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