Thursday, March 3, 2011

$SPX - Possible Roadmap (Short Term)

The following path makes the most sense to me all things considered.  Partly I like the math:


A (1332-1294 = 38 points)
C (1302+38 points = 1340)

Now let's work through the math:

1332 (today's top)-1302 = 30 points
1340-30 points = 1310
1332-1315 = 17 points
1310+17 points = 1327

Symmetry is important to me, and this pathway has nice symmetry.  It also fits well with my pitchforks.  The top pink line at 1340 comes from one of my longer term pitchforks.  Please see my 6-day $SPX chart Feb. 22, 2011. 

15min Chart


  1. hi sc mario here i can tell you are a lot further than i am with technical analysis, learning but it is hard, having troubles which timeframes at what moment to use, glad found your blog to assist me thanks mario.

  2. Thank you.

    I may be getting a little "cute" with this chart, but sometimes the market boxes itself in to a lower number of possibilities. This may be one of those cases so I will take a whirl with this map. If it needs to be tweaked or scrapped altogether so be it.

    Very bearish longer term cycles are mature, and what I have shown here is just a corrective move. In my opinion the market is just consolidating before sharper declines.

  3. Great work, any thoughts on silver?

  4. I would have to look closer at silver here for specifics. If I have some time on the weekend I will have a closer look at it.

    So far so good with the SPX plan! When I did the math I could have included fractions to get even closer. Next stop 1325-1327 to watch. One step at a time.

  5. sc, i have a question,these up and down days of 175 points , that is not pointing towards a healthy market, is it a sign of a very big move coming,thanks mario.

  6. There is no doubt in my mind that a waterfall decline is coming at the end of all this consolidation.

    You are correct, in fact, the behaviour of the market is specifically indicative of the coming waterfall according to my patterns.

  7. sc, Thanks very much for your great work. Regarding the waterfall decline, will that be another flashcrash? For symmetry, look at your S&P 2 day chart, on the left side near the green arrow, there is a flashcrash on 8/15/2007.

  8. I am expecting a series of sharp declines. The May 2010 flashcrash happened over just a few minutes, and was really difficult to trade. I think we are unlikely to repeat that in so little time, but nonetheless the declines will be sharp and fast.

    I see the spot you are talking about and, yes, we should see something very similar (not exact of course) this time as well. It's a panic capitulation type of move.

  9. Likely test SPX 1317 now then 1329.50, 1310 area after that.

  10. Ooooops........broke 1310 then 1303.

  11. Thought there may be a bounce in there first but no. Just straight to 1308-1310 now, and then 1340.

  12. Hit my target 1327 near perfectly. That may mean either my 1310 moves down to 1307.50 or 1340 moves up to 1342.05, not sure. My math is off by 2.50 points somewhere.

  13. Thanks, I am pleased with the way it is working out.

    I am very bullish short term now, particularly financials $rifin. Major short squeeze coming but just short term. Again, the bigger picture is extremely bearish.

    I'll be updating this chart soon. I think I spot the next moves coming.....

  14. Thanks :-)

    Needs to hold here or we go to 1280ish next few days.

  15. My math was a little too simplified on the move down from 1327. I'm still more than satisfied with this chart, and expect a move up to 1340 +/-next.

    The key here is the March 2nd low should hold 1302.50.

  16. 1303 holds so far but looks weak. We shall see. If the hold is real........up we go. If 1303 breaks 1280ish.

  17. Agree with you that 1302.50 is critical level, but my 5min $rifin pattern already indicates that we go up.

    Next day or two might just be choppy with minimal gains, and retest 1303 possible. Later in the week looks stronger to me.

  18. That would be my first choice but if 1303 does not hold on retest I think we will get some heavier selling quick.