Cyclical Market Analysis
Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Sunday, March 9, 2025
$SPX - Beware the Ides of March!
SPX reached the downside price objective for last week at the 200 dma. Currently SPX is a little oversold on the daily and so may manage some retracement this week. However much more selling is likely coming into April as the trade wars ramp up. Beware the Ides of March with turning point due March 15th. Daily
Friday, February 28, 2025
$VIX - Expanding Pattern
Volatility is in an expanding pattern and should increase higher in short term. The VIX has been trending higher since July. Volatility typically will pop when SPX is getting near to a low occuring after declines in SPX. Daily
Tuesday, January 14, 2025
$SPX - 2025 - A Transition Year
SPX has struggled going into 2025 and it is likely a transition year. The local trendline is being tested and may produce a little support. Ultimately SPX is likely to see lower levels. A rocky year is to be expected as this transition is underway.
Daily
Friday, December 27, 2024
SVXY - Unusual VIX Spikes
The August volatility in markets can be explained by SVXY measured moves equal size with the Covid collapse of 2020. Last Wednesday the VIX spiked 74% the second largest in history. These unusual spikes in VIX are happening more frequently and are a warning that markets are becoming increasingly unstable at these high levels. Weekly
Saturday, November 2, 2024
XLE - Oil Sector Bull Continues
Oil shares have continued to rise along the 50 weekly average. Of note Oil shares didn't even see the 2022 bear market that was seen in the SPX. There hasn't been any significant pullbacks in the Oil Sector either. Weekly
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
DJT - Breakout Coming!
Trump has been making a strong push here with the US Election coming up soon on November 5th. DJT looks poised to break out higher, possibly well over $100 in short term. Dailies
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
SVXY - Retest Lows Likely
Markets are weak and another shot of volatility can come next! A rate cut next week may be a disappointment if it does not match the markets expectations. Daily
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