SPX has struggled going into 2025 and it is likely a transition year. The local trendline is being tested and may produce a little support. Ultimately SPX is likely to see lower levels. A rocky year is to be expected as this transition is underway.
Daily
Called for rally in November and VIX spike in December. Then for SPX to struggle. All of this happened.
ReplyDeleteGoing into 2025 it feels much different than 2016 when Trump last came into office. This time the mood is skeptical and it will take time to adjust to these changes. That is why it's a transition year.
ReplyDeleteSPX has clearly lost support of the 50 average on the daily and likely heading down to trade around the 200 average for a while.
ReplyDeleteFor strategy I'm keeping the powder dry and have my eye on big opportunity from lower prices.
ReplyDeleteSPX could be quiet now until we get past the inauguration.
ReplyDeleteWTIC shows strength! Notice Oil held higher lows from September. Now WTIC above both 50 and 200 daily averages.
ReplyDeleteNew bull market setup near completion.
With Crude looking good I'm eyeing XLE. Still one more whipsaw possible in XLE for the best entry.
ReplyDeleteYellen: US will hit debt ceiling in mid- or late-January
ReplyDeleteTrump has vowed to declare a national energy emergency soon!!
ReplyDeleteSPX found some support at the trendline but it won't last long. Trump talking about putting tariffs into place February. Sinkhole ahead!
ReplyDeleteTrump has declared a national energy emergency!
ReplyDeleteWith the inauguration we saw a lot of flash but little substance. The Crypto and $500 Billion AI deal particularly. A lot of distractions.
ReplyDeleteAs I've said 2025 is a transition year and Trump will need to regroup before gaining more traction in 2026.
In short term there are concerns. We know Yellen has stated the United States is due to run out of money. The tariffs and strengthening Oil are inflationary.
I'm expecting a sinkhole ahead in SPX and spike in VIX. I'll post entries. Still likely weeks away.
ReplyDeleteSPX bounced on our trendline as anticipated and making marginal new highs, but it's weak and momentum fading. The selloff will be abrupt!
VIX 80 on deck once it starts
DeleteNVDA Deepseek black swan on deck lol?
DeleteI've been warning that 2025 was due to be a cold year for AI. Then that fake AI $500 B dream was another indication that the fluff was about to hit the fan!
DeleteIs WTI heading to USD$55 to 65 in next 6 months?
ReplyDeleteOil is still whipsawing so it's possible short term. The thing is market conditions are weak and the coming sinkhole in SPX will likely pull down Oil temporarily.
DeleteThere's the Deepseek but the market is afraid of tariffs.
ReplyDeleteSPX looks small bounce but down more to the trendline.
ReplyDeleteRemember the country has run out of money!
ReplyDelete"Nvidia sheds almost $600 billion in market cap, biggest one-day loss in U.S. history"
ReplyDelete"Fed’s Powell has had no contact with Trump"
ReplyDeleteTrump set to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting March 1.
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY $19.20
ReplyDeleteMarkets couldn't hold, tariffs coming!
DeleteYup, I wish I had bought much more. I don't think the market likes tariffs
DeleteFutures plunge!!! Trade war has begun!
ReplyDeleteThis selloff has legs! The US tariffs are starting tomorrow and I'm expecting the selling to extend for 21 days into February when Canada will launch countertariffs.
ReplyDeleteTrump backed off tariffs for 30 days but it won't matter. Selloff to continue...
ReplyDelete"China to levy additional tariffs of up to 15% on select U.S. imports starting Feb. 10"
ReplyDelete"China to launch antitrust probe into Google"
ReplyDelete"Alphabet shares drop 9% on company revenue miss"
ReplyDeleteChina Google attack coordinated with earnings it seems!
DeleteSMCI delisting date is 2/26. Maybe fireworks towards end of month.
DeleteAh yes good call
DeleteSMCI delisting deadline is 2/25, rallying as though it won't be lol. NVDA earnings 2/26. Gold to be revalued to 3000 by Treasury if it's still at Fort Knox? Japan interest rates inching higher again.
DeleteThis price action is typical of past large VIX moves at the beginning. UVXY rocky and gaining strength!
ReplyDelete"Monday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order that would impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports."
ReplyDeleteInflation report comes in hot! Nice plunge in markets overnight and should carry lower this week.
ReplyDeleteJust as we suspected the January deficit came in and it's massive! The country is in a very bad situation running increasing deficits. Debt crisis 0f 2025!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/13/kelly-evans-whoa-did-you-see-the-deficit.html?&qsearchterm=deficit
If the gold is missing at Fort Knox or some amount, does this cause a US credit rating downgrade and Treasuries selloff?
DeleteIt's going to be exciting! hahahaha That's the fear.
DeleteMarkets going up
ReplyDeleteSpx 6500 to 7000 by years end
ReplyDeleteGood point. Do you we will go straight up or down and then back up? If then when and how deep the down would be?
DeleteLong txg crsp rxrx nvda smci cybr pltr soun ton of xrp crypto xlm
ReplyDeleteTime for a VIX spike?
ReplyDeleteTrump has now made the tariff announcements and now we do have clarity on the timing of events. New charts coming!
ReplyDelete"Pending home sales drop to the lowest level on record in January"
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete