Oil shares have continued to rise along the 50 weekly average. Of note Oil shares didn't even see the 2022 bear market that was seen in the SPX. There hasn't been any significant pullbacks in the Oil Sector either. Weekly
Trump wins lol! In some ways it makes sense because we have seen the alternating cycle back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. Biden of course plagued by Inflation.
"President-elect Donald Trump has chosen oil and gas industry CEO Chris Wright as his next energy secretary, with Trump seemingly intent on fulfilling his election promise to increase exploration and production."
XLE started to trend up again in September but it's still whipsawing at the moment. What we are waiting for is a clean run. XLE popped on the Election and the inauguration January 20th likely the more important timing.
"Super Micro slides 7% after stock is dropped from Nasdaq 100"
"Super Micro was at risk of being delisted from Nasdaq altogether for a second time because of its delayed financial reports, but two weeks ago it received an extension until February 2025."
Lucky to catch. Rob, but sure for gap filling but not sure how far it can go. Andy thoughts? I remember you are very good at timing, too! Also I appreciate sharing your thoughts.
SCNovember 7, 2024 at 5:08 AM What we can expect is the market to rally likely through November. Next spot for volatility a few weeks away probably early December.
Looking at the SVXY chart though it's still in a bear profile. We have good conditions for trading volatility for months.
Expect a big pop in VIX in early December and a larger spike Jan/February.
Both UVXY and UViX have filled their gaps. FNGD and SOXS are either at the first or second downtrend. It has been a long rally, so it seems like it's time to stop. Is this downturn the beginning of a crash or just a temporary setback?
Charts coming! VIX chart will show why that move happened the way it did. SPX bouncing at the gap support again but I expect SPX will soon struggle for next several weeks until we get closer to the inauguration.
"Warren Buffett went on bit of a shopping spree in the stock market before Christmas, picking up shares of Occidental Petroleum among others during a swift December sell-off.
Berkshire Hathaway purchased an additional 8.9 million shares in the Houston-based energy producer for $405 million through transactions Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, pushing its stake above 28%, according to a regulatory filing late Thursday night."
Oil/energy continues to be the strongest sector. No weakness to be seen in the chart at all. It's so strong XLE has just continued up the 50 average.
ReplyDeleteBig VIX pop likely setting up in a few weeks. Then it'll lead to a larger spike in volatility.
ReplyDeleteSc when do you expect this to occur ?
DeleteI have a model in place so let's monitor that for the timing. We should consolidate for some weeks here first. The volatility will come back.
DeleteWe have perfect market conditions for trading...
ReplyDeleteWill Trump's win change the trend?
ReplyDeleteThe trends are already established. With Trump back the same trends will continue.
DeleteTrump wins lol! In some ways it makes sense because we have seen the alternating cycle back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. Biden of course plagued by Inflation.
ReplyDeleteDJT starting to heat up again. Can run hard this month!
ReplyDeleteXLE with nice gap up today.
ReplyDeleteToday we can see the strength in energy shares. XLE currently up 3% while SPX up only 2%.
ReplyDeleteUVXY went down 14% today which is huge. will the market keep going or correction? Any idea for next week?
ReplyDeleteWhat we can expect is the market to rally likely through November. Next spot for volatility a few weeks away probably early December.
DeleteLooking at the SVXY chart though it's still in a bear profile. We have good conditions for trading volatility for months.
Expect a big pop in VIX in early December and a larger spike Jan/February.
Volatility will increase but particularly once Trump is sworn into office January 20th.
DeleteIWM has 277 PNF price target and the PNF chart is on fire....
ReplyDeleteDo you think bitcoin is going to breakout here?
ReplyDeleteCup and handle on the 5 yr chart
DeleteBitcoin does have access to BTC etf money now.
DeleteThe Trump rally seems it may be short lived.
ReplyDelete"Last week, Musk said during a virtual town hall that Americans will experience a “temporary hardship”
Sounds like the R word - Recession
ReplyDeleteOil shares up again today with markets down...
ReplyDeleteBig gap between oil shares and oil price...oil price has some catching up to do!
DeleteYes, and when crude does rally, we know the shares will be explosive.
DeleteSPX back down to gap area. Should be some support for now.
ReplyDeleteUp into Thanksgiving.
ReplyDelete"President-elect Donald Trump has chosen oil and gas industry CEO Chris Wright as his next energy secretary, with Trump seemingly intent on fulfilling his election promise to increase exploration and production."
ReplyDeleteXLE has breakaway gap! A new leg up has begun.
ReplyDeleteUNG - nat gas looks like a massive base under $3. Is it breaking out? Will it take oil with it lol?
ReplyDeletemultiple Hindenburgs on the clock now...
ReplyDeleteLet's keep an eye on that. It'll come into play next year.
DeleteSC... when do you expect the big spx bear market to start?
ReplyDeletethanks
SPX is looking a bit weaker but it's still rising slowly. This will take a few months but it looks to be in the early stages of the topping process.
DeleteOil stock run XLE and GUSH moving nice! Crude over $70 and headed much higher.
ReplyDeleteWinter months perfect time for Oil to rally. 2025 looking like a huge year for Oil!
ReplyDeleteTrump wants lower oil price, in the past he always talked down oil price. Could Trump have more impact on oil price this time?
ReplyDeleteIt's going to be interesting to see. Trump's policy seems quite supportive for US Oil companies.
DeleteHappy thanksgiving SC!
ReplyDeleteXLE started to trend up again in September but it's still whipsawing at the moment. What we are waiting for is a clean run. XLE popped on the Election and the inauguration January 20th likely the more important timing.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIs it UVXY's turn to go up?
DeleteEarly in the New Year it'll be ready for a spike.
DeleteLet's wait until after inauguration.
DeleteRoaring Kitty returned...bought AMC/GME in case there is another meme stock squeeze
ReplyDeleteSC... when abouts is the VIX 180 coming?
ReplyDelete2027 ?
We know it's coming! Assassination attempts, CEO shot in New York, a country that is deteriorating shockingly fast, and in a state of denial.
DeleteVix 180 mid 2025 after 7000 big drop mid 2025
ReplyDeleteI own alot of xrp crypto and xlm
ReplyDeleteI have a little XRP - Solo - Velo that I bought as a longshot play earlier this year. So far, so good. Time will tell.
DeleteHow I played Crypto is with Robinhood. HOOD has done as well or better.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see a Trump pop I expect but it will fizzle rather quickly.
ReplyDeleteThis will go bust. February timing...
ReplyDelete"Super Micro slides 7% after stock is dropped from Nasdaq 100"
"Super Micro was at risk of being delisted from Nasdaq altogether for a second time because of its delayed financial reports, but two weeks ago it received an extension until February 2025."
ReplyDelete"Dow falls more than 200 points as index poised for first 9-day losing streak since the ’70s"
Since Trump announced 25% tariffs on its trading partners Mexico and Canada, the Dow has longest loosing streak since 1978.
ReplyDeleteDo you think UVXY can fill the gap to $26 until this Friday?
ReplyDeleteWell that escalated quickly...good call
DeleteLucky to catch. Rob, but sure for gap filling but not sure how far it can go. Andy thoughts?
DeleteI remember you are very good at timing, too! Also I appreciate sharing your thoughts.
VIX pop as per the plan...
ReplyDeleteSCNovember 7, 2024 at 5:08 AM
What we can expect is the market to rally likely through November. Next spot for volatility a few weeks away probably early December.
Looking at the SVXY chart though it's still in a bear profile. We have good conditions for trading volatility for months.
Expect a big pop in VIX in early December and a larger spike Jan/February.
Thanks for sharing and raising the flag, SC! It could be one of the best times in a decade. Glad you're with us!
Delete"Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — spiked by the second biggest percentage in its history on Wednesday"
ReplyDeleteUVXY filled the upper gap, but UVIX. What is your target from here?
DeleteBoth UVXY and UViX have filled their gaps. FNGD and SOXS are either at the first or second downtrend. It has been a long rally, so it seems like it's time to stop. Is this downturn the beginning of a crash or just a temporary setback?
DeleteCharts coming! VIX chart will show why that move happened the way it did. SPX bouncing at the gap support again but I expect SPX will soon struggle for next several weeks until we get closer to the inauguration.
Delete"Warren Buffett went on bit of a shopping spree in the stock market before Christmas, picking up shares of Occidental Petroleum
ReplyDeleteamong others during a swift December sell-off.
Berkshire Hathaway
purchased an additional 8.9 million shares in the Houston-based energy producer for $405 million through transactions Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, pushing its stake above 28%, according to a regulatory filing late Thursday night."