Sunday, March 9, 2025
$SPX - Beware the Ides of March!
SPX reached the downside price objective for last week at the 200 dma. Currently SPX is a little oversold on the daily and so may manage some retracement this week. However much more selling is likely coming into April as the trade wars ramp up. Beware the Ides of March with turning point due March 15th. Daily
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In the Roman Empire the Ides of March on the 15th became notorious as the date of the assassination of Julius Caesar, which made the Ides of March a turning point in Roman history.
ReplyDeleteFrom the Address to Congress it was clear that the two sides won't work together.
ReplyDeleteTarget SPX 5,000 at the year 2020 trendline.
ReplyDeleteVIX expanding up to that 30 target!
ReplyDelete"Trump says a transition period for the economy is likely: ‘You can’t really watch the stock market’"
ReplyDeleteIn January I had stated that 2025 was a transition year. Trump is now acknowledging that fact.
DeleteSC January:
"SPX has struggled going into 2025 and it is likely a transition year. The local trendline is being tested and may produce a little support. Ultimately SPX is likely to see lower levels. A rocky year is to be expected as this transition is underway."
Markets may be down into November that's 1 year from the Election.
ReplyDeleteMexico wanted nothing to do with the trade war.
ReplyDeleteUSA and Canada duke it out in a toe to toe brawl!!!
ReplyDelete"Ukraine has agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the United States if Russia accepts the plan."
ReplyDeleteThere that should provide some retracement I was seeing in the charts. Selloff more later...
ReplyDeleteSC - you are looking for a SPX bottom next week to be combined a VIX spike?
ReplyDeleteI'm still expecting the markets to continue lower but now instead of straight down it'll be choppy with lower lows.
DeleteSome retracement is due now.
Unfortunately the next crisis is coming. The USA is due to run out of money this Friday. Then April the retaliatory tariffs hit all trade partners.
I think for timing from Cycle markets are down into mid May.
Any level that you are watching for a short term pullback?
Delete5,375 there's a small gap. Generally we can see a little lower but bounce is still due soon.
DeleteVIX reached near the expanding chart line today. The chart continues to expand for months to come. Larger move in VIX anticipated into May with the best movement as SPX reaches a low at that time.
ReplyDeleteSC .. how low do you see the SPX going this year and what happens after that low?
ReplyDeleteThanks
This is a transition year for the United States. It's not going to go smoothly but it will lead to better opportunity down the line. So for SPX around 5,000 looks possible.
DeleteWhat I will say though is that the USA is not yet at the point of a serious recession. It's getting there. We will see that due in a few years.
So although the markets are not performing well this year, next year looks positive and i have a big plan for that.
U.S. budget deficit surged in February, passing $1 trillion for year-to-date record! Largest deficits in the world!!
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that Trump, Bessent, Lutnick still are not respecting the market. So lower it goes. Added new tarifffs again! With this level of stubbornness the downside is very deep here.
ReplyDeleteany targets SC?
Delete‘I’m not going to bend at all’: Trump
ReplyDeleteMarkets rebounding off oversold conditions. So far 10% correction. A 20% correction would be 4,920 SPX.
ReplyDeletePlunge to 5000 SPX coming next few weeks SC?
DeleteSPX hit the 50 daily average and was rejected. We do have the 200 average a little higher. I think we're going to whipsaw for a bit first. Once all hope is lost then it'll plunge like a stone.
DeleteThere's the plunge to 5000. How much lower to come?
DeleteYes it happened quickly! Still heading a lot lower.
DeleteMarkets struggling with OPEX today. Some retracement as anticipated. SPX can bounce around into April as we wait for the daily chart to rollover.
ReplyDeleteGap filled today in SPX
ReplyDeleteAll other countries autos now tariffed 25%. That will likely also raise domestic prices for autos since factories won't have the capacity here. Basic Economics!
ReplyDeleteSo today we have seen a little hint. The market is sensitive to inflation...
ReplyDeleteGoldman lowers target for S&P 500 to 5,300 over next 3 months. This is inline with the gap I've identified at around 5,375.
ReplyDeleteMajor event today! Liberation Day!! The day your wallet gets liberated hahahaha.
ReplyDeleteAll joking aside I think most people didn't realize how desperate the situation had become. Reality is beginning to sink in for many people.
Deficits have spiraled out of control.
Already approaching $2 Trillion year to date so Trump is trying to get this under control.
There we go! Futures sinking though I see that charts are still not quite ripe for the huge selling yet. It's weakening supports and the bigger selling will come later.
ReplyDeleteThanks , SC
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome! We should see the gap 5,375 SPX then a bounce. After that the real heavy and relentless selling will come...
DeleteMarkets continue to selloff and looks like down into next week. Volatility starting to spike!
ReplyDeleteUVXY moving up nice and steady now.
VIX up above 40!
ReplyDeleteMarkets sinking further. It doesn't seem that the markets will be able to bounce. SPX is very weak. VIX has broken out in an expanding pattern. SPX will likely continue down much more.
ReplyDeleteUVXY rocking!!! Dow plummets! Awesome trade, we caught this beautifully! Lots more to come...
ReplyDeleteVIX closes 45 and UVXY over $40. Volatility chart coming next!!
ReplyDeleteNew charts posted!
ReplyDelete