Biotech has reversed up from extreme oversold levels. LABU and XBI are attractive for a summer runup to the end of August. LABU has traded up through prior resistance. Weekly
"Whereas a regular winter pattern is noted for northern China (similar to that in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere), the pattern in southern China differs. In southern China, influenza is prevalent throughout the year; it has a clear peak in the summer and a less pronounced peak in the winter. Because this dual seasonal pattern of influenza has not been reported outside China and is relevant to pandemic (H1N1) 2009, we describe surveillance data for rates of consultation for influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza subtypes in patients with ILI. We emphasize the spread of influenza from southern to northern China."
Potus--stated that the US consumer can pay High oil prices as long the war continues --Worst decline For start of the year Since 1970--that just assured me that the volatility will be greater in the end of the year (fall time frame)!
I have invested half of my cash into gold mining stocks with purchases of HGU (BetaPro Canadian Gold Miners ETF). I think mining stocks are close to a bottom.
I don't care if you look at an hourly, daily or weekly chart of mining stocks - these things are OVERSOLD! There is now an RSI divergence as well on the daily and hourly charts.
If you look carefully at GDX, HUI, XAU, etc. there appears to be a small gap between April 8th and April 9th 2020. Another decline of 3.5% or so and that gap in April of 2020 will be filled, I think.
Raymond Merriman has been talking about a 16 month cycle low in gold that is due JULY 2022 +/- 3 months and here we are! This 16 month cycle is coming off of the lows of $1677.90 back on March 8, 2021. There is the high possibility these low prices in gold are the start of a newer 16 month cycle.
The CCI (18) for Silver dropped below -200 on Friday, July 1st. This isn't perfect but 75% of the time when the 18 day CCI drops below -200 in Silver the price of Silver will explode upwards 9% or more within 7 trading days (usually within 4 trading days). I should add that the last time (June 14) Silver dropped below -200 on CCI (18) it failed to increase more than 9% in price. Maybe this time it'll work.
There has to be bottom in here soon! I just don't understand why gold is trading so low anyway with all the chaos in the world - inflation, high energy prices, supply chain issues, food shortages, war in Ukraine/Russia, COVID/vaccine nonsense, tyrannical governments (thinking of you Justin Trudeau!), etc. You'd think this would be the perfect environment for rising gold prices but Nooooooo!
its because Russia has a lot of it....just like NG and CL....thus it has to be destroyed....says dementia and chief....I expect XAU 98 or so to take out stops. Silver is near its low but gold has chance to see 1630 bcse of above...
Russia has a small portion of their army in Ukraine. The initial attack was there for everyone to see. The next waves of attack are likely to be by surprise as Russia moves its soldiers into Ukraine. Pearl Harbour for example.
I'm not expecting the big volatility yet because it's relatively quiet summer trading. But I agree SPX looks weak in July. Next week may be good entry for July shorts.
The spx is too weak to go long here - we didn't get above SPX 4000 in the last five day run--still at the bottom of a downward channel --the odd's favor a bottom in (Sept-Oct) time-frame--the summer will be low volume and should follow the channel down -Potus wants wants nothing to do with a Fossil fuel economy (as per G-7 meeting)--if any thing -be Nimble!
"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a major ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, warned Tuesday that Western policies are edging the world closer to "the abyss of a major war" that will have no winners."
Biden has been selling Oil in a 6 month sell program. That program is reaching the later stages. I knew oil would be affected more in the later stage of the sell program, and it has.
As Biden finishes his selling then quite simply get ready to move back into the oil market.
"The Biden administration said in late March it would release a record 1 million barrels of oil per day for six months from the SPR"
sc, correction Looking below--Spx 3800 by mid next week --close below Spx 3500 today or tomorrow will confirm the move--be nimble! we are out of the upward channel
sc, correction--- I need to pay attention Looking below--Spx 3500 by mid next week --close below Spx 3800 today or tomorrow will confirm the move--be nimble! we are out of the upward channel
Strong reversal pattern last week! LABU is coming up off extremely oversold weekly.
ReplyDeleteAnd... it just so happens there is a catalyst coming in July.
ReplyDeleteBought LABU $7.40.
ReplyDeleteDual Seasonal Patterns for Influenza, China
ReplyDelete"Whereas a regular winter pattern is noted for northern China (similar to that in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere), the pattern in southern China differs. In southern China, influenza is prevalent throughout the year; it has a clear peak in the summer and a less pronounced peak in the winter. Because this dual seasonal pattern of influenza has not been reported outside China and is relevant to pandemic (H1N1) 2009, we describe surveillance data for rates of consultation for influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza subtypes in patients with ILI. We emphasize the spread of influenza from southern to northern China."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3321959/
The study suggest China Covid summer peak ahead
ReplyDeleteUVIX hit that gap we talked about. That's why it popped.
ReplyDeleteSPX filled gap on weekly
ReplyDeleteHowever VIX hasn't hit trendline support
ReplyDeleteAre you talking about VIX 200 daily MA @ 23.69? Or the 50 Weekly MA @ 22.75? Which needs to hit first before a July spike?
DeleteNot the moving averages but rather the trendline from April
DeleteBought LABU $6.60. It can see $8 next week.
ReplyDeleteSC, your waiting for the vix 25
ReplyDeleteBUY XAIR, thank me later....cheap here after FDA approval yesterday
ReplyDeleteyour all welcome, double in LABU
Deletehuge R's stacking up in XAIR
DeleteBasically charts are primed for volatility. Now we wait for timing.
ReplyDeletelook forward to that trade. probably will need to wait into August for entry
DeleteYes summer trade
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeletewhere is the entrance on UVXY???
Later in July VIX pop and the bigger in the Fall months.
DeleteSc
ReplyDeleteAny updates on ocgn ?
OCGN grind higher for a few weeks. We can see $3 in July.
DeleteNot moving much yet as relatively quiet, but that run will come.
Sc-
ReplyDeletePotus--stated that the US consumer can pay High oil prices as long the war continues --Worst decline For start of the year Since 1970--that just assured me that the volatility will be greater in the end of the year (fall time frame)!
where is the impeachment of this traitor, Biden and Obama did some really bad stuff in Ukraine.....proxy war cover up now in full play
Deletetribunals eventually...after it takes pfizer 75 years to release all the vaxx safety data lol
DeleteA long wait indeed!!
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteJust bought out of the money calls on gush--that's cheap!
Notice SPX losing most of it's gains from last week.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile Biotech holding most of its gains from last week. LABU
SPX down/losing gains yet VIX flat.
ReplyDeleteStill waiting for the catalyst that sends UVIX/UVXY to the moon.
That catalyst it's coming
Delete$8!!!
ReplyDeleteSCJune 28, 2022 at 11:31 AM
"Bought LABU $6.60. It can see $8 next week"
Great call!
DeleteSC, what are your thoughts on gold mining stocks? They are looking pretty beat up about now. I've been nibbling at NUGT.
ReplyDeleteStill early but Gold and Silver should perform better as inflation rises to 15%
DeleteBiden scolded oil companies over the weekend. Oil shares taking a dip
ReplyDeleteSPX may still be lower into August
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletevolatility sometime this month--any idea what would cause this volatility?
Putin
DeleteThe difference between 2020 and now is this time we are trading a war. The first battle has been fought and the next battle is about to begin...
DeleteDepends on if WWIII officially announced or if Cold War only escalates with sanctions etc. Big difference between sanctions and hot war
DeleteMass movement of Russian soldiers into Ukraine is what I'm anticipating.
DeleteOK, here are my thoughts.
ReplyDeleteI have invested half of my cash into gold mining stocks with purchases of HGU (BetaPro Canadian Gold Miners ETF). I think mining stocks are close to a bottom.
I don't care if you look at an hourly, daily or weekly chart of mining stocks - these things are OVERSOLD! There is now an RSI divergence as well on the daily and hourly charts.
If you look carefully at GDX, HUI, XAU, etc. there appears to be a small gap between April 8th and April 9th 2020. Another decline of 3.5% or so and that gap in April of 2020 will be filled, I think.
Raymond Merriman has been talking about a 16 month cycle low in gold that is due JULY 2022 +/- 3 months and here we are! This 16 month cycle is coming off of the lows of $1677.90 back on March 8, 2021. There is the high possibility these low prices in gold are the start of a newer 16 month cycle.
The CCI (18) for Silver dropped below -200 on Friday, July 1st. This isn't perfect but 75% of the time when the 18 day CCI drops below -200 in Silver the price of Silver will explode upwards 9% or more within 7 trading days (usually within 4 trading days). I should add that the last time (June 14) Silver dropped below -200 on CCI (18) it failed to increase more than 9% in price. Maybe this time it'll work.
There has to be bottom in here soon! I just don't understand why gold is trading so low anyway with all the chaos in the world - inflation, high energy prices, supply chain issues, food shortages, war in Ukraine/Russia, COVID/vaccine nonsense, tyrannical governments (thinking of you Justin Trudeau!), etc. You'd think this would be the perfect environment for rising gold prices but Nooooooo!
its because Russia has a lot of it....just like NG and CL....thus it has to be destroyed....says dementia and chief....I expect XAU 98 or so to take out stops. Silver is near its low but gold has chance to see 1630 bcse of above...
DeleteSilver seems cheap at $19 relative to the highs in 2011 in the $40 to $50 range.
DeleteThat is a good point about Russia. As the inflation worsens and war intensifies the precious metals should have a run at some point. When though?
Commodities out of favor at the moment.
LABU can take profits either this week or next week. $10 looks like it'll be the limit for this run.
ReplyDeleteSold LABU $9.25.
ReplyDeleteSold OCGN $2.56.
ReplyDeleteWhen Putin attacks all stocks will drop precipitously.
ReplyDeleteWhere and when will he attack ? Outside of Ukraine? Inside Ukraine is baked in no ?
DeleteRussia has a small portion of their army in Ukraine. The initial attack was there for everyone to see. The next waves of attack are likely to be by surprise as Russia moves its soldiers into Ukraine. Pearl Harbour for example.
DeleteRussia will make major advances next.
SC, the vix is cool
ReplyDeleteSC, where are you waiting for the vix?
ReplyDeleteLet's look at VIX monthly
DeleteLABU will need consolidation here.
ReplyDeleteSC, what are you looking at the monthly vix
ReplyDeleteProbably the monthly 40 MA which has been support/resistance for the market since 1920’s.
ReplyDeletehttps://vimeo.com/727502496/f4cd4d6161?utm_campaign=TheNorthCast&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter
sc
ReplyDeleteEveryone on this blog --wants to know the entry point for the next big VIX movement--any insight for the dedicated followers???
We just need to wait for this rally to mature. There's probably going to be a few false starts. There's time.
DeleteSo it's not imminent yet.
Out of LABU 4.20 to 9.65....
ReplyDeletebuilding position in SOXL
DeleteGood call on the XAIR!
Deletethanks, Ceo and director bought 250K 10 days ago, low float and FDA approval were suppressed for a day or 2 by big boys, insiders own 18%
Deleteare we getting close?
ReplyDeleteSeems like it. Good area to scale in some SPX shorts here for next week and into end of month...
DeleteI'm not expecting the big volatility yet because it's relatively quiet summer trading. But I agree SPX looks weak in July. Next week may be good entry for July shorts.
DeleteOver the scary Wednesday the 13th hump, then down we go!
DeleteSPX is not strong and I think could show weakness for two more weeks. Volatility should pop.
ReplyDeletethanks!
ReplyDeleteThe reason volatility hasn't popped much on the SPX decline this year is that SPX gradually fell to lower lows over 5 months.
ReplyDeleteI do expect SPX to claw back some gains but when it's ready SPX will drop fast over a short period and volatility spike.
So conditions are increasing for volatility. The charts are primed though we wait for timing.
CLVS has some bids coming in, has 5.88 target on PNF....
ReplyDeleteAXSM target 97
ReplyDeleteI bought back into OCGN at $3.02.
ReplyDeleteOCGN too cheap and finally popped up through the 20 average this week. 27% shorts. Potential for a long runup starting.
DeleteSc ... do you have price targets ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yes, I'll post the chart update with two targets.
DeleteSure enough LABU pulling back
ReplyDeletereentered LABU 7.88
ReplyDeleteI have XBI hitting 124 before reality hits..
DeleteSPX is weak also as anticipated but it moves so slowly. Summer trading.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteThe spx is too weak to go long here - we didn't get above SPX 4000 in the last five day run--still at the bottom of a downward channel --the odd's favor a bottom in (Sept-Oct) time-frame--the summer will be low volume and should follow the channel down -Potus wants wants nothing to do with a Fossil fuel economy (as per G-7 meeting)--if any thing -be Nimble!
Biotech is a great trade in this market. More setups are coming as the whole sector floats up off extremely oversold conditions
ReplyDeleteJust as I had suspected...
ReplyDelete"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a major ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, warned Tuesday that Western policies are edging the world closer to "the abyss of a major war" that will have no winners."
SC - we are waiting for the VIX to spike. Do you expect Oil to spike as well as Putin potentially reduces energy supplies to Europe?
DeleteBiden has been selling Oil in a 6 month sell program. That program is reaching the later stages. I knew oil would be affected more in the later stage of the sell program, and it has.
DeleteAs Biden finishes his selling then quite simply get ready to move back into the oil market.
"The Biden administration said in late March it would release a record 1 million barrels of oil per day for six months from the SPR"
So yes Oil will eventually spike massively, but we are not at that point yet.
Delete$200 oil is realistic as we head into 2024.
DeleteSC, what is going to be the better play, Uvix or Gush? Or are they on different time tables?
ReplyDeleteI think they are on different time frames. Maybe still early for volatility but it's coming.
DeleteOil should make a rebound soon.
Scalp only $2.56 CLVS S 2.30
ReplyDeleteSc,
ReplyDeleteLooking below--Spx 3500 by mid next week --close below Spx 3500 today or tomorrow will confirm the move--be nimble!
we are out of the upward channel
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletecorrection
Looking below--Spx 3800 by mid next week --close below Spx 3500 today or tomorrow will confirm the move--be nimble!
we are out of the upward channel
sc,
ReplyDeletecorrection--- I need to pay attention
Looking below--Spx 3500 by mid next week --close below Spx 3800 today or tomorrow will confirm the move--be nimble!
we are out of the upward channel
ReplyDelete
SPX looks weak. I doubt it will do well this week but it's slow. I think first half August looks bearish
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDeleteNow I'm getting into OCGN in a big way. Very cheap stock and with Biotech performing.
ReplyDelete