RIG is breaking out above the trendline and there is a lot of upside potential on this run. A very smooth uptrend may be in the early stages here. Below is a comparison with the weekly chart and a model uptrend.
“Our new Constitution is now established, everything seems to promise it will be durable; but, in this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes,” Benjamin Franklin 1789
XBI I expect will have a big run this year, but it's still trying to find it's low. At least on the weekly it's almost oversold. February could be better but don't have too high expectations short term just yet.
AMC quite frankly it is starting to test my patience. On the one hand, I am quite sure AMC has a good future. However, one thing bothers me about it. It's full of inexperienced investors, and when I look at AMC options there are a lot of Calls open interest and they are pricey. The issue with this is that the market may want to let some of these calls expire before it runs. Cruel but this may be the reality - a timing issue.
guys---easy--- AMC has a gap at 16 to 17---it may filled by option expiration---think 5-3-5 pattern----if we have not bottom yet ---we will bottom by Thursday!
If we get to SPX 4750 or better on the next move up---the odds are getting better that we break through SPX 4500 on the next move down--closer to Spx 4400---the play will be UVXY on the next move up---there is no good news ---earnings season will be The shorting event of the year!
Doubt SPX will bounce that high before current correction ends...I expect volatility to increase towards end of this month. So strategy to build volatility calls now on pullbacks into end Jan/beg of Feb.
That --I see --that looks correct in February ---I am just looking for a counter trend rally---before we break SPX 4400---inflation will kill this Market!
spx---break of 4530-----really no support to 4400---Yield curve has sold off since October--they need to flush the system-------Amc ----is very weak----most positions are being Liquidated in the banks---controlled sell off!
UVXY has an important clue. Notice that the 200 average is now in view on the daily. Last year this condition wasn't present. This tells us that volatility has consolidated sufficiently. Now we can wait and get ready for the next setup.
what does that mean---100 point on the SPX-----uvxy ---should be at 20 or better---its up .30 cents--I know its manipulated but the fed meets next week ---a close below SPX 4500---no support to SPX 4400---the meme's got killed--value stocks are the only positions worth holding! white house blames companies for inflation????
The reason UVXY is not moving much yet is that volatility isn't quite ready. I am looking at the chart right now that shows when the volatility will happen. The setup is in sight. I'm not doing anything with these small moves but I am getting ready, and I will say when the conditions are met.
So here is an example of how I use modelling to make a comparison in price and time.
ReplyDeleteUAE drone attack, oil pops!
ReplyDeleteThe last major high in Oil was $147.30 in July 2008.
ReplyDeletePeople think Oil at $85 a barrel is expensive. It's not expensive. Oil is really cheap.
ReplyDeleteRelative to 2008 $147 Oil, Oil is currently $85.
Does anyone think Oil demand now is less than 2008? SPX is 4,600. In 2008 SPX was 1,500. Now SPX 3X higher.
DeleteOil is cheap relative to SPX!
Yea, agreed.But with all the taxes here in Canada the price of gas is already as high as when it was $147.00
ReplyDelete“Our new Constitution is now established, everything seems to promise it will be durable; but, in this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes,” Benjamin Franklin 1789
DeleteSPX gapping down but doubtful this would be a bad week for SPX.
ReplyDeletedo you see a rebound SC? at which price?
Deletemany thanks..
SC, do you have any updates on XBI and AMC? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteXBI I expect will have a big run this year, but it's still trying to find it's low. At least on the weekly it's almost oversold. February could be better but don't have too high expectations short term just yet.
DeleteAMC quite frankly it is starting to test my patience. On the one hand, I am quite sure AMC has a good future. However, one thing bothers me about it. It's full of inexperienced investors, and when I look at AMC options there are a lot of Calls open interest and they are pricey. The issue with this is that the market may want to let some of these calls expire before it runs. Cruel but this may be the reality - a timing issue.
Deleteguys---easy--- AMC has a gap at 16 to 17---it may filled by option expiration---think 5-3-5 pattern----if we have not bottom yet ---we will bottom by Thursday!
ReplyDeleteIf we get to SPX 4750 or better on the next move up---the odds are getting better that we break through SPX 4500 on the next move down--closer to Spx 4400---the play will be UVXY on the next move up---there is no good news ---earnings season will be The shorting event of the year!
ReplyDeleteIt makes sense yes
DeleteDoubt SPX will bounce that high before current correction ends...I expect volatility to increase towards end of this month. So strategy to build volatility calls now on pullbacks into end Jan/beg of Feb.
DeleteLouis made a beauty of a call on Activision. Takeover by Microsoft!!
ReplyDeleteSold GUSH took profits at $111.30.
ReplyDeleteGUSH might see $85 to reload.
DeleteCongrats!
DeleteSpx---breaks 4560----Spx 4500----next support----at least --- I am enjoying the ride!
ReplyDeleteInflation---the Market Killer!
SC, vix is getting hot?, I think in a first peak in February around 40-45
ReplyDeleteVIX is waking up though not moving aggressively yet.
DeleteLabu 20.9
ReplyDeleteLABU might have a shot at a lower low from March 2020. Death cross looks to be imminent but a good pick for this year!
DeleteXBI 87-89 looks very doable and would be 50% correction.....
Deletethis opex 21rst should be close to lows for XBI
Charles,
ReplyDeleteThat --I see --that looks correct in February ---I am just looking for a counter trend rally---before we break SPX 4400---inflation will kill this Market!
Sc,
any input on UVXY?????
UVXY still relatively quiet. However often in these situations it can pop just as SPX gets near to a low. UVXY $18 possible short term.
DeleteWTI Crude back at the October high. The Oil market is absorbing Biden's 50 million barrels rather easily.
ReplyDelete"Both oil contracts notched their highest level since October 2014"
ReplyDeleteSc--
ReplyDeletespx---break of 4530-----really no support to 4400---Yield curve has sold off since October--they need to flush the system-------Amc ----is very weak----most positions are being Liquidated in the banks---controlled sell off!
super cycle in commodities in early stages....'infinite supply is no more
DeleteXBI very close to tradeable bottom, weekly oversold
BOIL first tranche
Deletesc---is this end o0f the 5 -3 - 5 pattern?
ReplyDeleteSc 85 to 87 xbi. Labu is triple etf. You are expecting uvxy going higher- later- how will it paly out
ReplyDeleteUVXY has an important clue. Notice that the 200 average is now in view on the daily. Last year this condition wasn't present. This tells us that volatility has consolidated sufficiently. Now we can wait and get ready for the next setup.
ReplyDeleteGUSH rejected at $120. I had taken profits soon after the failure occurred.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletewhat does that mean---100 point on the SPX-----uvxy ---should be at 20 or better---its up .30 cents--I know its manipulated but the fed meets next week ---a close below SPX 4500---no support to SPX 4400---the meme's got killed--value stocks are the only positions worth holding! white house blames companies for inflation????
Please advise???
The reason UVXY is not moving much yet is that volatility isn't quite ready. I am looking at the chart right now that shows when the volatility will happen. The setup is in sight. I'm not doing anything with these small moves but I am getting ready, and I will say when the conditions are met.
DeleteIt means they had 2 choices to curb inflation:
ReplyDelete1. Raise rates
2. Sink the market
They've made their choice...
The next chart will explain a lot
ReplyDeleteSC - are you expecting new highs for SPX into Feb?
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteThar was the right answer--you should say this--the same way you just did --the fed made their choice!
This gives me a lot more respect for this we blog!
New chart posted!
ReplyDelete