This VXO chart is especially good because we have a clear target and nobody looks at this chart.
Everyone watches VIX. Now VIX is typically 5 points below VXO but this relationship can distort too. So I'm not sure exactly how high for VIX. I just watch VXO.
SC - Slightly confused - in your last VXO post you said VXO to spike to the trendline April 10th. But now you are saying SPX to rally into April 10th instead?
The panic will be so intense that on Friday, March 13th and Monday, March 16th following the Ides of March that people walking down the sidewalk of New York City will be crying on their shoes.
It sure is I only go to trump's Twitter page to get the real news if that man is not nervous then I'm not nervous every other news organization kiss my ass MSNBC fox cnn cnbc all of the motherfers
New York declares state of emergency over coronavirus outbreak - Governor Andrew Cuomo March 7, 2020
SCMarch 6, 2020 at 8:52 AM
"The panic will be so intense that on Friday, March 13th and Monday, March 16th following the Ides of March that people walking down the sidewalk of New York City will be crying on their shoes."
the long yellow line you see is a trendline from a while back, but has been consistent throughout this year and I believe through the December 2018 correction.
it appears that tvix has not retested the 50% as a support from the recent gap up.
news cycle printing tons of hysteria all weekend seems counter intuitive for it to retest the 50% so easily. Tvix has been staying strong even with the fed rate change and news and message at the end of friday resulting in a volatility drop EOD.
"When people look at their accounts and see that their hard earned savings have vanished into thin air they may throw the baby out with the bathwater come Monday."
Here are the levels to watch for further trading curbs when U.S. markets open Monday:
Level One Breach
A 7% decline in the S&P 500 from the prior day’s close would trigger a level one breach, where trading is halted for 15 minutes.
That level for regular trading on Monday is 2764.30, a 208 point drop from Friday’s close of 2972.37.
If that level is reached at or after 3:25 p.m. ET, it would not halt marketwide trading.
Sunday night, futures on the S&P 500 tumbled as low as 2818.75, triggering a trading curb because the threshold for premarket and after-hours trading is lower than during the regular session.
Level Two
The next threshold is 13%. A decline in the S&P 500 by that much would similarly result in a 15-minute halt.
To trigger a level-two circuit breaker Monday, the index would have to drop 386 points to 2585.96. Trading wouldn’t be interrupted if the drop came at or after 3:25 p.m.
Level Three
It takes a 20% drop in the S&P 500 to trigger a level-three circuit breaker. If this happens at any point in the trading day, marketwide trading is halted for the remainder of the day.
To hit level three on Monday, the S&P 500 would need to fall 594 points to 2,377.90.
your over trading now, everyone laughed when I said this would be fast and swift....bears are too happy now, BPSPX is 3rd lowest in 30 yr history.....time to start scaling into the right sectors....expect credit defaults via energy debacle to form in next couple days, maybe Dbank is going under.....a lot of victims to count
It may be time to take a step back and consider the story of what has gone on in the past 5 years.
Look at the patterns on the S&P since trump was elected and took office. Inorganic, straight lines, followed by quick meltups then crashes.
Like SC has said, this is not about covid-19. This is large money / power institutions already deciding that Trump will not win the election and getting out of their positions.
Essentially, they could erase everything they have put in since 2016. That brings the S&P to around 2200. then adjust for inflation of the years since then.
Thats all bullshit i live in newyork nobodys do0ing that diblasi is a big dick and so is the chancelor of ther school china has been dumping there debt
I don't think I have the stomach for buying again now that the FED has stepped in. Just something to look out for. All the levels in the retracements I have laid out have been accurately tested and retested.
I am shocked, honestly.
Can not reasonably support Vix getting to 97... its just what the charts have said. I would not count on it.
based on the other patterns that have matched with the way I estimate, these will be tested as resistance and support. but, really... who the hell knows.
Quick update with the most important chart to put things into perspective.
ReplyDeleteI exited all of my volatility positions on the open.
ReplyDeleteThis is because VXO is retesting the prior high at 56. It didn't go higher. Doesn't look like it is ready yet...
ReplyDeleteLooks like VXO about to retest 56 really soon. Any thoughts? or re-evaluations?
DeleteVXO doesn't look ready to me to move higher quite yet.
DeleteBought UPRO $50.70.
ReplyDeleteSold all VXX Calls. Up 558%.
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 5, 2020 at 10:45 AM
"VXX March 13th $25 strike calls are up 130%. Aim for 400%."
This was just using simple plain vanilla basically atm Calls.
DeleteSPX surging!!!
ReplyDeleteSPX trading right at the pink line today. Looking like it's support possibly well into next week.
ReplyDeleteDo you imagine a breakout from the 1987 trend on this run?
ReplyDeleteIs your estimate that this trend is to dominate volatility for years to come still?
To me this chart is most important. No it won't breakout. VXO to hit 65 and that is it for this run.
DeleteToday VXO didn't have the energy to break above the February high. So that tells me it'll cool again and make the final run to 65 in March.
DeleteThis why made it made sense to exit volatility on the open and went long SPX.
Yes it'll dominate for years but not many years. We are running out of years I am afraid...
DeleteThis VXO chart is especially good because we have a clear target and nobody looks at this chart.
DeleteEveryone watches VIX. Now VIX is typically 5 points below VXO but this relationship can distort too. So I'm not sure exactly how high for VIX. I just watch VXO.
When I first posted this VXO chart last year I said it was the chart nobody is watching.
ReplyDeleteStill true as mass panic is underway.
I was going to ask this question, as well. Why do you prefer VXO?
ReplyDeleteDo you see patterns in there more consistently?
The reason is that I originally noticed this trendline relationship with VXO and 1987, the largest volatility event.
DeleteThe relationship does not work for VIX because VIX didn't exist in 1987.
Notice that this isn't really about SPX. SPX has 12% correction. SPX is higher than where it was last week.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile TVIX made huge move. This is all about volatility. Classic panic.
SC - Slightly confused - in your last VXO post you said VXO to spike to the trendline April 10th. But now you are saying SPX to rally into April 10th instead?
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting VXO to hit the trendline March 16th.
DeleteThen there's going to be SPX rally into April.
DeleteSold UPRO $51.20.
ReplyDeleteThe panic will be so intense that on Friday, March 13th and Monday, March 16th following the Ides of March that people walking down the sidewalk of New York City will be crying on their shoes.
ReplyDeleteBut 2850 wont be broken. So what panic
ReplyDeleteLol, that's a lot of panic SC
ReplyDeleteYes indeed
DeleteLooks like panic will be late . Looks like sc expects late . When 2830 will be broken
ReplyDeleteThe market is fine. The panic is in people's minds.
DeleteSPX oscillating above and below pink line today. Market reverted to the Mean and is feeling my line...
ReplyDeleteSC do you think SPX will plunge to test the Dec 2018 lows when VXO spikes to test the trendline? or is that later?
DeleteNot on this VXO run. VIX spikes foretell of problems later for SPX. The warning for SPX is not for now but later. After the election.
DeleteThe VIX spike in January/February 2018 foretold a bear market later that year October to December 2018.
Oil plunges like drunken sailor
ReplyDeleteshorted uvxy at 38 boy am i looking for a beating
ReplyDeleteVXO doesn't look ready to move higher just yet.
ReplyDeleteEconomically things are looking better. Low oil prices, low interest rates...
ReplyDeleteStarting to get bullish...
ReplyDeletelong spxl
ReplyDeletebought spxl when you bought upro still holding
ReplyDeleteI'm holding UV XY till it hits $10 such a piece of ship
ReplyDelete“The coronavirus panic is dumb,” Elon Musk
ReplyDeleteIt sure is I only go to trump's Twitter page to get the real news if that man is not nervous then I'm not nervous every other news organization kiss my ass MSNBC fox cnn cnbc all of the motherfers
DeleteCNBC's Rick Santelli sorry for saying we should infect 'everybody' with coronavirus to help economy that little biatch media skum
ReplyDeleteDefinitely not cool making fun of Corona while the elderly and those with health conditions are losing their lives.
DeleteWe saw two legs. The fear phase, consolidation, then came the panic phase.
ReplyDeleteSCJanuary 31, 2020 at 10:51 AM
"Remember, after fear comes panic..."
Caught only some of the fear phase - was incredibly fast, fortunately regrouped last weekend. Drafted the correct charts, and came out swinging!
ReplyDeleteKnew the panic would come...
ReplyDeleteCaptured the panic!
ReplyDeleteResult: Up 815%.
ReplyDeleteNew York declares state of emergency over coronavirus outbreak - Governor Andrew Cuomo March 7, 2020
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 6, 2020 at 8:52 AM
"The panic will be so intense that on Friday, March 13th and Monday, March 16th following the Ides of March that people walking down the sidewalk of New York City will be crying on their shoes."
That's just bullshit I live in ny
DeleteWe are not changing anything media is all fuckin bullshit and Cuomo could liss my ass
That's the spirit Louis!!!
DeleteWhen are you planning on taking a position for the 13th and 16th?
ReplyDeleteWhat price are you looking for on an entry of TVIX?
I have plan, good question! Let's discuss soon what we want to do next.
DeleteVXO printed 56.66 high last week.
ReplyDeletewe might see a test of new low but 3140 will be hit in a hearbeat
Deletefuck i had 10000 shrares at 43 would of been worth 2.7 million crazy wow
DeleteSC: the 1°st big rebound for s&p500 could start from 16 March in your opinion? could you show us your thought about s%p500?
ReplyDeletemany thanks..
R.R.
That sounds pretty close, in March.
DeleteYes will do, charts coming soon.
Possible to see another rate decrease on March 18th
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/KOb28j5
ReplyDeletehere is a vxo graph. please excuse my drafting lines - it is a mess.
blue fib retracement is adjusted to the current trends in vxo on this run.
red fib retracement is from 2008 crisis.
notice the compatibility in this run from 2008 fib retracement.
In the current fib retracement, I use about 65 vxo at 100% on this run as I adjusted it to match the behavior of daily patterns.
ReplyDeletewhen I retrace the run back to the most recent low of 6.32, it does not line up as well, but matches the 2008 crisis better.
https://imgur.com/a/pBymZfm
ReplyDeletehere is vxo on the hourly showing the fib retracement for the recent run in blue.
the red horizontal is the 2008 retracement.
updated hrly graph showing 100% retracement.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/wSxp7XG
https://imgur.com/a/1lZenx7
ReplyDeletehere is tvix for the current run using the same scheme as what we saw on the vxo graphs.
the estimate for 100% is very close to what SC has suggested. just around 230 ish.
The question is, will tvix reach that if/ when vxo maxes out due to the delay in vix futures prices?
the long yellow line you see is a trendline from a while back, but has been consistent throughout this year and I believe through the December 2018 correction.
Deleteit appears that tvix has not retested the 50% as a support from the recent gap up.
ReplyDeletenews cycle printing tons of hysteria all weekend seems counter intuitive for it to retest the 50% so easily. Tvix has been staying strong even with the fed rate change and news and message at the end of friday resulting in a volatility drop EOD.
Thanks for the charts! I'm reviewing!!
DeleteRose, ask your questions again please.
ReplyDeleteI aske . Spx down to 2835. Ah. What happens next. Fear index 5. OS. But everyone expecting bounce to 3180 that's why it did not happen. But what now
ReplyDeleteGeez, looking at futures. S&P 2818, WTIC 30.65, Gold 1701, natgas 163
ReplyDelete;)
DeleteAha
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 5, 2020 at 11:41 AM
"Dow moves 1,000 points a day. Let's see if we can get a Dow 2,000 point down day next week"
Definitely Monday
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 5, 2020 at 9:58 AM
"Plan to hold TVIX into Monday. Monday expect big down day for SPX as low is retested."
Just confirming. You sold TVIX and other long volatility last week.
DeleteYes, did well, but should have followed the plan.
Delete"When people look at their accounts and see that their hard earned savings have vanished into thin air they may throw the baby out with the bathwater come Monday."
ReplyDeleteI buy Tuesday...
ReplyDeleteyou buy long volatility on Tuesday?
DeleteMonday may still be good for long volatility entry. Short vol on Tuesday for couple days...
DeleteFutures on the S&P 500 were halted Sunday night after they declined 5%.
ReplyDeleteHere are the levels to watch for further trading curbs when U.S. markets open Monday:
ReplyDeleteLevel One Breach
A 7% decline in the S&P 500 from the prior day’s close would trigger a level one breach, where trading is halted for 15 minutes.
That level for regular trading on Monday is 2764.30, a 208 point drop from Friday’s close of 2972.37.
If that level is reached at or after 3:25 p.m. ET, it would not halt marketwide trading.
Sunday night, futures on the S&P 500 tumbled as low as 2818.75, triggering a trading curb because the threshold for premarket and after-hours trading is lower than during the regular session.
Level Two
The next threshold is 13%. A decline in the S&P 500 by that much would similarly result in a 15-minute halt.
To trigger a level-two circuit breaker Monday, the index would have to drop 386 points to 2585.96. Trading wouldn’t be interrupted if the drop came at or after 3:25 p.m.
Level Three
It takes a 20% drop in the S&P 500 to trigger a level-three circuit breaker. If this happens at any point in the trading day, marketwide trading is halted for the remainder of the day.
To hit level three on Monday, the S&P 500 would need to fall 594 points to 2,377.90.
Oil crash. Support $18.
ReplyDeleteHoly shit tvix it 340 lol
ReplyDeleteCould the 13 March fear move forward? That means Monday to Wed decline, turnaround Wed?
ReplyDeleteYes it can, the 13th is just an estimate for the entire move from February. Nothing special about the 13th day itself.
DeleteBig down today, small down tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday big up days.
SPX
DeleteLook more like it..if today big down..
DeleteThose who have followed the site for a while know that I have always said in a panic volatility event with that TVIX structure ETF can move 10X.
ReplyDeleteTVIX 1,000% move is $380 from the low $38.
This is not true for UVXY because they reduced the leverage. Only up 5X currently.
DeleteNow here we are TVIX $300. Possibly it could be interesting on a pullback. We'll see...
ReplyDeleteOr will focus on SVXY
DeleteSoon
DeleteSPX 2,710 today fork support.
ReplyDeleteThere's cicuit breaker at 2,764.30. So would close for 15 minutes.
DeleteThe level 1 circuit breaker triggered just now.
DeleteTVIX is halted.
ReplyDeleteOpen in 15 minutes. Coffee time!
ReplyDeleteTrading has resumed
ReplyDeleteHit $302 TVIX this morning and it's settling from that level.
ReplyDeleteSCMarch 6, 2020 at 5:07 AM
"If the measured move is slightly more than 2011 then I guess an 800% move $304 TVIX could be possible in theory but..."
SC - are you expecting a 450 point SPX rally from this week's low? So back to 3,160s before next leg down?
ReplyDeleteWill review the upside target.
DeleteVXO hit 63.89! One point from target 65!!!
ReplyDeletegood call
DeleteTVIX possible 50% retracement underway. $170 level of interest.
ReplyDeleteVXO rejected at the 1987 trendline!!!
DeleteTVIX rejected at the $304 level!
DeleteA Team - I love it when a plan comes together
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/NsUFBm1uENs
VXO did print 65.45. Target achieved!!!
ReplyDeleteYes I saw 340 pre market tvix
DeleteI'm short big time shouldn't we go up for a few days
DeleteSorry I doubted you however that 107
DeleteBuy wishes I had that one
It's okay. Look to the future. We are just getting warmed up, next 30 days golden age of trading!
DeleteNot yet Louis, tomorrow is our day. I join you!
DeleteI'm short volatility shorted more at 50 is that what you mean
DeleteTomorrow plan long SPX, SVXY, and VXX puts.
DeleteJust waiting for dust to settle
DeleteCorona - Rhythm of the Night
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/gwVxXEYrgZk
Congrats on your calls SC! How much of a bounce do you expect in SPX?
ReplyDelete3,025 SPX
DeleteBought UPRO $43.30.
ReplyDeleteSPX might see some downside, but the price is good enough to start building position.
ReplyDeleteWhat would be perfect for SPX to see small down day tomorrow for SPX and big up days on Wednesday and Thursday.
DeleteBTW small down day in this market is 50 points.
DeletePerfect economic conditions with low oil and interest rates.
ReplyDeleteEveryone focused on Corona. Tunnel vision. Did everyone forget about Election?
And what if Trump has ace up the sleeve. Could you imagine phase two China trade deal...
How big of a bounce are you expecting in SVXY? https://imgur.com/a/atcESnj
ReplyDeleteLet's wait for tomorrow to answer this question.
DeleteNot buying SVXY yet.
See my chart. A move back to 200dma for SPX could lead to a heft bounce for SVXY
Delete"White House to invite Wall Street executives to meet over coronavirus concerns"
ReplyDeletePep talk for the players. Ah yes!
DeleteRemember what I told you last year that 2020 would be the Superbowl for volatility.
ReplyDelete1st Quarter is in. 3 Quarters left to go.
I look forward to half time show!
Bought TVIX $255.75.
ReplyDeleteCould see $300 plus tomorrow.
Deleteyour over trading now, everyone laughed when I said this would be fast and swift....bears are too happy now, BPSPX is 3rd lowest in 30 yr history.....time to start scaling into the right sectors....expect credit defaults via energy debacle to form in next couple days, maybe Dbank is going under.....a lot of victims to count
DeleteYes, agree
DeleteSc. U buying upro and tvix
ReplyDeleteYes, expect to exit at different times though.
DeleteSold all TVIX $258 after hours.
ReplyDeleteCharts are looking very close to the turn.
ReplyDeleteThere is another timing I have in mind for another leg in volatility
ReplyDeleteFor now, let everything settle down.
ReplyDeleteThe VIX futures have nearly reached equilibrium with VIX in the front month.
ReplyDeleteTVIX doesn't have the big advantage it had when there was such an imbalance.
http://vixcentral.com
are you looking to buy puts on vxx
ReplyDeleteI'm considering, but have not done anything.
DeletePremiums this high make it hard to profit on Puts
DeleteYes I think so too.
DeleteSC do you still expect a big flush friday the 13th and the following monday?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yes Friday 13th low.
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDeleteuvxy tvix bamm just like thank God you sold good choice and move
ReplyDeleteYes, after VXO hit the trendline TVIX was heavy.
DeleteNew analysis posted!
ReplyDeleteI am seeing a vix projection of 68.7
ReplyDeleteIt is possible on an overthrow. VXO will want to test the line hard...
DeleteFriday the 13th... as predicted.
ReplyDeletegot to stick to the plan and not get distracted. you called it, here it is.
VXO retesting 65.
ReplyDeleteIt may be time to take a step back and consider the story of what has gone on in the past 5 years.
Look at the patterns on the S&P since trump was elected and took office. Inorganic, straight lines, followed by quick meltups then crashes.
Like SC has said, this is not about covid-19. This is large money / power institutions already deciding that Trump will not win the election and getting out of their positions.
Essentially, they could erase everything they have put in since 2016. That brings the S&P to around 2200. then adjust for inflation of the years since then.
Just a thought...
Thats all bullshit i live in newyork nobodys do0ing that
ReplyDeletediblasi is a big dick and so is the chancelor of ther school
china has been dumping there debt
It's okay Louis, everything is fine!
DeleteNearing the VIX 82 as mentioned and shown in my charts.
ReplyDeleteVix 97 is next.
Bought TVIX 375
TVIX nearly 550 pre-market.
DeleteTVIX could be another opportunity when it retests the 440 area.
ReplyDeleteIt seems most likely that this week should be the peak of volatility, and then starts lower highs.
.....if the virus remains the primary catalyst and does not expose other economic issues.
The previous TVIX peak was $850. Something to watch also.
DeleteExcellent call JT!
DeleteWe have to be a bit careful too though because TVIX overbought on weekly.
DeleteThank you, Sir!
ReplyDeleteI don't think I have the stomach for buying again now that the FED has stepped in. Just something to look out for. All the levels in the retracements I have laid out have been accurately tested and retested.
I am shocked, honestly.
Can not reasonably support Vix getting to 97... its just what the charts have said. I would not count on it.
what general area would VXo or vix be in compare to that TVIX 850?
ReplyDeletewhen was that 850 on TVIX?
$850 TVIX was December 2018.
DeleteThe VIX 2008 peak was 89. Your 97 might be close because this seems to be more volatility than 2008. This is a volatility event.
DeleteThe SPX bear market will not go as deep % as 2008 though I am confident in saying.
as I shift things around on the VIX graphs, I lose confidence in the 82 VIX.
DeleteLooks more like 87, 94, and still 97. Hard to believe with the FED making such big moves.
these are all based on Fib curves and retracements using intersections between them across time and price
VIX levels:
Delete79
87
94
97
based on the other patterns that have matched with the way I estimate, these will be tested as resistance and support. but, really... who the hell knows.
Thanks!! Check it out I just posted new VIX chart.
Deleteawesome, thank you!
DeleteWhat bothers me about TVIX is the weekly overbought.
ReplyDeletePossibly TVIX could pullback then higher volatility later in the year...
more volatility related to the election, is that what you are thinking?
Deleteor the reverberations from this situation?
bamm right down again
ReplyDelete