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Tuesday, September 11, 2018

$SPX - Run to the Top!

SPX is in the sweet spot with the run to the top apparently underway. 


Mid-channel resistance has become support which has opened the door to further upside.  A steady meltup is likely ahead.


Daily Chart

16 comments:

  1. SC: if i understand well, in your opinion the negative seasonal pattern that normally occour in this period (sept + oct) will have no influence to price... right? If so this last up leg may be the last "hurrah" of the USA markets, The "gran Finale"as you wrote in your previous post..
    many thanks..

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    Replies
    1. Everything is aligned for the final run. The seasonals don't appear to be an issue this year. While we are talking about stats though the midterms are the dominant event. The stats look favorable for SPX.

      "Stocks tend to perform well from May through election day in midterms years when the sitting president has an approval rating below 50%."

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    2. Buy the rumour, sell the news: trade deals... Let's see the Art of the Deal!

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  2. SC--that silver prediction sounds like a 1981 redux--wow!!

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    1. The nightmare continues for Gold and Silver! I have been warning for 7 years now...

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  3. You have not taken advantage of the sell-off, though!

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    1. I did take advantage. I sold Gold at the top. Sold my Gold holdings at $1,850. I have the receipt. I plan to utilize the capital to buy much more at the bottom as a result.

      True I could have shorted more aggressively. I helped a lot of gold bugs manage their holdings and shorts made a fortune.

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  4. I'll calculate a target price for UPRO. Looking excellent!

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    Replies
    1. UPRO target $62 which equates to SPX 3,000.

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  5. SC:just to understand your thoughts: what is your November midterms election S&P500 target? 3000 or 3125?
    if 3000 when 3125?
    if 3125 why sell UPRO at the equivalent of 3000? tactic "sell to close" for consolidate gains?

    many thanks !!

    PS: in elliot terms after the august temporary peak around 2915( III° of 3) we can see an a-b-c. Now we should be at the end of b if the market remain under 2915 and stall here. If so then c wave can swing in lateral ( at most test previous low at 2863 during september ) before rally again towards new high.
    Instead If market break 2915 directly, we are not in a-b-c but again in impulsive III of 3 and we must wait a - b - c
    conslidation further on.


    PS2: just for information, a friend told me that in the last 8 sessions we had 6 Hindenburg Omen on S&P500 ...
    how reliable is this in your experience?

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    1. My model shows the final leg up in SPX. 3,125 could be reached if price rises to the resistance as shown on the chart. If the slope is gradual though it may only climb along the middle support which would suggest a target of 3,000.

      It's best to be conservative and review with time.

      The hindenburg is a good indicator. I see it as indicating a frothy market which is further confirming the topping process in the model. This is a strong market but it is expensive. So we should not be surprised at seeing the hindenburg as we near the top in the model. Often there are a cluster of signals.

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    2. thanks SC.

      at the moment S&P500 show the c leg in force. Let's see if the yesterday low around at 2886 il good to complete the pattern before breakup or S&p500 need a lower low next days..

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  6. 2863 could happen but I doubt it highly Market is very very strong I will be a bit surprised if 31:25 is an understatement I'm looking for 3200 to 3400 by the end of the year we will see

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  7. Surprise! There's the breakout.

    Keep it simple. 50 and 200 day moving averages shooting up. Rising trend. SPX isn't overbought.

    The dips will be tiny now as it rises.

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  8. should we short TLRY or wait for 350 lol

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