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Wednesday, July 25, 2018

$SPX - Before and After with 2018 Target

SPX has reached the Cycle target identified in May, 2018 analysis.  Both charts are shown with the results before and after.

A small pullback is due in August followed by the final run to the 2018 target. 

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Before:

May 21, 2018 analysis:  Breakout!

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64 comments:

  1. Is everybody ready for the Grand Finale....???

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    1. Oh yes I guess the next step has to be bought and held

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  2. Yes SC, it been a LONG road...

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    1. Yes, it sure has been haha!

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    2. Sc I'm just curious what your game plan is you did say that there wouldn't be much movement but I seen upro explode to the upside it is moved 12 bucks from May I managed to trade it but then didn't hold it that long what is your game plan or taken a position are you waiting 29 5 0 too short or you're waiting for the market to dip down and by and hold it till November your thoughts

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    3. I may consider a long position in August on the pullback but as a rule it is always best to be cautious on the final move in the cycle.

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    4. Let's review in August.

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  3. Hi SC:

    We had a death cross in gold in late June 2018. This is the 11th time in the 21st century. The average length of time that the 50 day remains under the 200 day moving average for gold (during this century) is 210 calendar days. Do you see a possible bottom in PM's around the time of the grand finale for stocks or will they suffer longer than the usual 210 days-ya think?

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    1. Thank you, interesting stats. I think it will take longer. Gold is a longer term play. Gold has dropped for 7 years so far off the 2011 high. This may take 2 or 3 more years to finally reach bottom well under $1,000.

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    2. It's going to be interesting.

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    3. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BGEIX%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=t51927868715&r=1518688120012

      You are correct about interesting--any net below that trap door? :)

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    4. The net appears to have holes in it...down, down, and down.

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  4. SC achieving a long-standing target...Impressive.
    Be Careful achieving a long-standing target within 2 points and 1 day...Coincidence? Hmmmm....Suspicious? Definitely...most definitely...
    Either way, congrats on both of your great calls.
    Moving forward, perhaps it's time once again to Be Careful!

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  5. SC - you are still waiting for a pullback to 2780 SPX? Do you think it will go lower since we rallied to 2850?

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    1. We could still see a shallow pullback but support building around 2,800. The final run to the top is due to commence this month.

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  6. Meanwhile bitcoin is in a configuration that will see extremely choppy price action short term with a tight range. The whipsaw phase is ending for bitcoin. The capitulation is approaching. Still months away but setting up for spectacular moves...

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  7. Drama heating up as always approaching a major top! Tesla deal in the works to fuel the final run?!

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  8. SC: the "grand finale" has already started on the S&p500 in your opinion? The pull back at 2800 saw a good reaction. Will the break up of 2860 be the beginning of the last lag towards the top? arond 2950??

    thank you very much for sharing your work.

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    1. It is likely that the run has started. Yes, target 2,950 SPX. It will attempt to come close to the magical round number 3,000.

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  9. sc thanx for your work is that target end of year i see 2900 short term

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    1. 2,950 SPX target may be conservative, 3,000 is a magnet but I wouldn't be long at that level anyway. It may last until year end, we'll see.

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  10. in my opinion we will see 3200 year end any dip has to be bought
    just my opinion

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  11. "According to Securities and Exchange Commission rules, the agency has until Thursday August 23 to decide on a bitcoin futures-based ETF submitted by ProShares."

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  12. There we go! Just now SPX starting to climb into overbought territory.

    A dip into month end wouldn't be surprising...

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  13. Replies
    1. Why? If spx is rising into mid-terms?

      Wouldnt uvxy fall to $5-7?

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    2. I am just for a trade gap has to be filled august 24th gap

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  14. SC: S&P can close the gap at 2876 or a deeper dip in your opinion?

    many thanks..

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    1. Dips likely to be shallow at this stage. At least test the gap possibly close it but no deeper.

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    2. Overall, SPX to rise into November midterm elections.

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  15. straight to 3000 possible after slight dip

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  16. upro equivalent to 170 imagine should of held it

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  17. Sc what u expecting after 3000 spx

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  18. SC: 2916 on S&p500 is a Elliot intermediate Etarget: start from the may low – III of 3° wave and 1.618 fibo projection . Let’s see if it hold for a small counter trend

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  19. a 4° wave natural target is 2873...

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  20. im gonna go to cash markets arent selling off here for holiday

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  21. SPX gap tested this morning.

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  22. today low (at the moment) 2886.18, gap start at 2884.69 end at 2876.16, may be not yet tested..

    strong reaction at any intraday low.. i think this is a strong market ..


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    1. we should drop to 2874 if not now in a few days

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  23. The gap fill at 2,876 SPX looks likely. Possibility for a deeper dip to 2,830 SPX.

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  24. gap filled... in elliot term a IV° wave of 3 major may touch 38.2 fibo at 2830.. as suggested by SC...

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  25. 2863 - 2876 could hold. In this case we can see a new up move but the possibility of a second down leg in september remain with the target already listed; let'see.. What do you think SC?

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    1. 2863 low looks like it'll hold.

      V-bottom

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  26. This should be a steady meltup for SPX starting as shown in the model.

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  27. SC, what's your opinion on Gold price in the short term?

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    1. Gold and Silver have commenced the final leg down, a deep decline in the model. Ultimately the Silver target is $6.50 which is more than 50% lower.

      However short term there is some room for consolidation. I would not buy rather I may initiate a silver short position this Fall.

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  28. i bought spxl this morning glad your in what is your target spx
    price 2950 2980

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