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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

SPY - Timing Cycles Due

We have an equal time cycle due tomorrow as shown below.  We also have a different timing cycle due the following day on June 16th.  A cluster of cycles converging suggests whipsaws.  I have been leaning towards a high tomorrow and decline into the end of the week.

Overall I am anticipating a rally with higher lows to last into approx. June month end.  The larger trend remains down with a significant low expected in July.

Daily Chart

41 comments:

  1. Morning SC, you still think markets have room to rally today? futures look U.G.L.Y!!

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  2. It's still possible. Another possibility is that the timing cycle came in a day early (especially since the high was late in the day yesterday). Let's see how things shape up later, and it should be more apparent.

    I noticed the Financials were trading flat yesterday indicating weakness coming soon, premkt this morning they are down, but still holding very well off the lows last week.

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  3. Lately just no action during the day - flatlined. Major gaps 3 out of the last 4 days.

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  4. hard to imagine much of a rally to come out of this current action. We looks destined to make a new low before the end of the week rather than higher lows. What is the action telling you SC?

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  5. At this point still following the 2 hour chart that I showed on the weekend quite well.

    Let's see how things develop here.

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  6. How about the SLV? It reached 35.07 so far. I remember you mentioned that it probably will touch 35.5 then sell off. Looks like close to top today. Thanks.

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  7. SC, assuming that the cycle high came in early (yesterday) could it imply that the cycle low may also come in early (later this week as opposed to next week?)
    cheers!

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  8. SC as I also said before. Looking for a bottom today (mid June) and then a rally into July....

    Still stand by this a bottom at this area and then a rally to come - get ready with your cash imo.

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  9. Even with the selloff today, Financials are still holding up relatively better with a double bottom for Rifin. So no change in my plan or timing for now.

    SLV did see a moderate rise as expected. I'm going to look at it closer now to see what might be coming next.

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  10. I only see funds selling heavily and traders trying to front run and out smart the selling. A bit of jittery only, lots of knee jerk short coverings reactions here and there. And the funds are happily selling with every bounds.

    The deflationary winds are gaining strength.

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  11. Its imho time to load the boat up on the long side - I think today we bottomed out and we see a nice rally to 1320 target by end of June....

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  12. Bought a size position long TNA 68.93 - wish me good luck - holding this over next 1-2 weeks for a upcomming rally

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  13. All the best Sqwii. The way this mkt has been lately, "expect the unexpected". A steady rally day after day wouldn't surprise me here, and would sure fit that description.

    Financials heating up again last 15min.

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  14. Just a curious, how to identify the "financials heating up again..."? What indicator we can use? Or it shown in your technical chart? Thanks.

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  15. Roger, just speaking in general terms there. I often compare relative performance of the Financials vs S&P. For example, yesterday they were relatively weaker, and today they are stronger.

    Not always but most often a good signal at turning points.

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  16. This was one of the confirmations back in May, and a solid reason why I was bearish in May. Many were calling for 1400+ at the time, but Financials were telling a different story.

    I did show this comparison and warning sign several times in April and May.

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  17. Still have a higher low on RUT from June 13th. TNA is also trading higher than RUT suggests it should be. That looks positive as well.

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  18. Hi SC do you think the S&P has bottomed today? Would you be looking at some exposure on the long side or wait for more confirmation?

    Many thanks for the great analysis

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  19. SC do you see silver topping out at this level?

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  20. Not sure there is a right or wrong answer Muzz. It's really just a personal preference how to play things here (or not).

    There are some subtle things accumulating as I have mentioned that look promising for a bounce. Yet, this has been one tough bottom to pinpoint that's for sure. Also, a bounce here would just be a counter move as the larger trend remains down in July imo.

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  21. Small caps never made a lower low... but higher... small caps leading markets up and down.. they are strong today.... bottom is in imo and we will rally from here why I bought heavy TNA.

    All my oppinion , I can see 1320 SPX

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  22. Silver seems more sideways to me than anything else here.

    I'll show some charts on it next.

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  23. Thanks SC it does seem that it may be a little overdone here in the short term and I agree that the trend remains down so any long side move would just be to take advantage of a snap back short covering rally before resumption of the downward move.
    I have also been reading that apparently we are entering the end of the 60 year commodity cycle according to Gann and that there will shortly be an across the board drop in commodity prices. Will be interesting to see what happens.

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  24. Hi SC,

    Just wanna take a moment to thank you once again for your analysis and insights!

    Cheers!

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  25. Looks like more downside follow through this morning

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  26. would love to be wrong though. I closed out my shorts yesterday and want to reshort in the 1290-1310 area

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  27. SC,
    Phenomenal calls. Thanks.

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  28. Financials looking solid this morning...favors rally today.

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  29. So the way I read the time cycles is that our top came in slightly early - late on the 14th.

    The next time cycle was due today, and I take this morning's low to be our bottom.

    Up we go!

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  30. thanks for the update SC! You still looking for this to last through the end of June, or has it shortened now due to the speed of the drop? Still targeting 1310?

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  31. Still looking at the same timing, maybe even the first week of July. 1315 target makes sense.

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  32. TNA from 68.8 yesterday size position working out so far - holding all for much bigger gains next weeks (-;

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  33. Slow and steady it seems we can claw back up the wall of worry....

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  34. Financials are leading the way down.

    Greece poses $41 billion risk to U.S. banks
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greece-poses-41-billion-risk-to-us-banks-2011-06-15

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  35. This seems to have affected financials

    Basel Said to Weigh 3.5 Percentage Point Fee to Curb Bank Growth
    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay0IWVpKh_8M&pos=1

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  36. Interesting that the VIX is spiking, but the mkt is still holding it's lows. Last week the VIX wasn't budging while the mkt was dropping.

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  37. anyone who went long this morning probablyjust gave up. Now there is probably room to start rallying finally.

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  38. This market has the emotions of a 2 year old toddler today

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  39. Intraday S&P futures posting a nice megaphone reversal pattern

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  40. Not sure about the 2 year old story. Seems to me a brilliant shake out of both longs and shorts.

    But there are still a lot of put buyers to be paid, or screwed. We will see tomorrow.

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