Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Well I also see a bounce here SC - but the question remains to me how high the bounce will be.I have a bottom date at around Mid June - which means the bounce should only last 1-3 days before another steep decline..... So for now my first upside target is 1290-1295... if we breakout higher then I agree with you on 1315-1320 actually...But lets see , Im still short markets since 1st June - but took some 3x long ETF yesterday close just for trading
Seems to me that the bounce "might be over" today if at around 1290-1295 range imho , lets see .. if we breakout higher I agree with you on 1315-1320
SC, what r ur thoughts on Silver. Thnx
1290-1300 likely will take some time to crack, with back and fill action. Silver basically rangebound lately, back at resistance levels. There is a pattern I am watching that suggests it could slump soon though. Not confirmed yet, monitoring that.
Took some more ZSL today - seems like a good entry below 17 ... lets see silver overbought now short term ...
SC, I want to short Silver, but unsure atm.
Markets in my target zone 1290-1300 , think we go down again from here.SPY hit my target of 129.7 too
If we do push a little higher then 1297 is an area to watch. Likely dip back into the 1280's from there, before tackling 1300+.
This would mean the moon cycle is broken - full moon would be a top not a bottom no?
I haven't been following the moon cycle, but I see there are going to be large whipsaws within this rally. So there will be significant bottoms within this rally.
SC, it seems to me that gold is painting a fairly bearish pattern clearly visible on the daily chart. As for silver, it might me completing a bearish triangle. However, do you see SLV first heading back to $38 before eventually breaking lower for good?
It's almost a wait and see for the short term SLV. I suspect a test of $36 to $35.50 range might be in order. I'd like to see a little more trading to let some of the patterns develop futher.
GL - Per the triangle I posted last night (http://screencast.com/t/aNyBYloOMQhW) it does look like silver futures could have a bit more upside - perhaps to $38.4 or so. Not sure what that translates to in terms of SLV, as I mostly just trade futures.
Spudthorpe, yup, thanks. I trade futures as well, and that is exactly what I meant to say. I mentioned the SLV level because SC was referencing to it throughout his analysis. Matter of fact, I was a bit surprised with the reply, as there seems to be a bit more upside, given the triangle in question. However, as ABQ noticed above, perhaps they're looking at ZSL, which suggests the opposite of what we expect. Either way it goes, I suppose we're still in the same range.
Out 1/2 ZSL this morning from yesterday...will watch the action:http://screencast.com/t/ljhz5ufQfUT
Thanks ABQ, SLV testing that spot I mentioned yesterday $36-35.50. The blue fib fan is at $35.50.
Very crazy market. No reall correlations at this point. SC- you think silver holds here and bounce?
Probably spend some time trading in this range now. Likely test $35.50 for SLV.
Amazing calls SC!
Thanks Blake, I could see a better bounce now.
SC, great call.
Markets PERFECT as called the bounce yesterday up to 1290-1300 then further down.Right now I'm seeing a possible MINI MINI bounce today to hold , but early next week we see 1260 and 1250
SC what a call. How high do you think this bounce will take us?
The overall picture for Silver remains bearish imo, maybe decent bounce here SLV to $36.10 or something like that. Then possibly could see another selloff.
Hard to say for sure just yet, should be more clear later.
SC,Do you see a short term bottom here for SPY around 127.85? Bounce later today or early next week?
S&P has been weaker than I thought today, but I still think it should be due for a stronger longer lasting "breather" bounce than what we saw yesterday. Financials are very close to my target, and they have been pulling down SPX. So they will not be a weight on SPX going forward now.
I dont think we are going to bounce anything - I think a flush out to 1240-1250 sometimes next week , will be buying then.
Financials going nuts now - straight up.
Man.. I got nothing to say to SC but Respect.2 mins after your post.. ES is skyrocketing.Good lord.. this is scary how well you read the markets!
This news is out: "Big Banks Likely to Face Extra Capital Charge of 2% to 2.5%, Less Than Feared"
I'm going to buy some SPY 130 calls. I think we're headed up short term.
I am wondering if there is more to this: Do they come out with a surprise over the weekend. Debt ceiling?
Financials have continued to rally hard, leading up, it does "feel" as if the tide has turned.
SC, Do you think financials will continue to climb next week? It sure ended in a whimper.
Yes, SPX was weak but Financials were much stronger in contrast, well off the lows. No doubt about it - powerful relief rally coming next week. Charts coming to show what I am seeing.
SC,Would the relief rally include Oil, Silver, Gold, and Euro. I would assume so.Thanks,A
To varying extent I would think so - will review those in more detail. This rally will shake out late coming bears. Selloff to continue later in June.
SC - I've got a fib bottom target of mid next week - so an early sell off next week and then a good relieft rally to 1315-1320 is in place imho. We should see some panic and a flush early next week with the dollar moving higher near term imhoI will sell all my shorts sometimes next week from 1st June which is in nice profits at the moment. Going to take some 3x bull TNA if we flush out some more...
SC, have you looked at Terry Laundry's 15 week low coming in the first week of July? Peter Eliades also has a cycle low in the first week of July. How does that fit in.
Thanks Hook, let me check that out. It's clear from my timing cycles we are in for a wild ride!
Do you have a longer term forecast of the Dow and SP500 ? Short term, I think we go down into 13 Jun and a sharp spike rebound to relief the technical oversold conditions probably lasting for a week, then an ensuing sell off into month end of June and further into the month of July.I seem to get a major low around the 26 Jul period, probably a double bottoms on 19 and 26 Jul.
Interesting similarities with what I am looking at Timer. I have charts coming soon to show specifics. Thanks.I do have long term charts for S&P - though I have not shown them yet. The cycles are as bearish as is possible over the long term (years). However, as always, the devil is in the details. There is a bear trap around every corner on the way down.