SPX has been in an uptrend following the "mini" 2022 bear market. SPX is likely to trend up and continue possibly into 2025. There will be some nasty drops along the way, but SPX is currently in a bull phase. Daily
Short term SPX higher. Bounced off the weekly 50 and strongly so that does indicate higher. December could be relatively flat since we've already seen strong gains in November.
Next year is going to be rocky. In the first quarter SPX drop to test the weekly 50 but the average is rising about 200 points every 4 months.
So what we would expect is that SPX probably is rising to test the high of 4,800 and then drop to the 50 weekly which by that time could be around 4,400.
We should see some dip or sideways first for SPX. After that consolidation maybe another pop to test near the highs before it rolls over. Big trades are coming but we may need to get through some sideways first.
Just in the last 60 days VIX ran from 12 to 23 a 91% move then dropped from 23 back to 12! It's starting to swing aggressively as we are in the later stages.
The 3,500 SPX low of 2022 is likely to hold for now although this chart shows that breaking eventually.
The 200 weekly SPX is right near 4,000 but it's rising. We could test that next year.
I think the 50 and 200 averages will be tested a number of times. Certain indexes are weaker. Small caps in particular still look very weak and we can see capitulation in those stocks.
I have a plan for OCGN. It's going to have it's run but from a lower base. So there's no point entering or averaging yet. I'm just waiting for the right moment. I am anticipating the run winter 2024/2025. Even though it seems cheap, and there is good value, I'll wait because it likely has more downside first.
Alaway appreciate your insight. I agree with you. There are many reasons to be collapsed but there is no sign of collapse. What's your time line for the market drop? Any thoughts on NG?
This is what I am favoring over the next couple of years - big picture.
ReplyDeleteThere has been a lot of talk of recession, but as I pointed out in October GDP surprised to the upside at 4.9%.
ReplyDeleteWhat about shoter term ? You think the 4100 spx gets tested again ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Short term SPX higher. Bounced off the weekly 50 and strongly so that does indicate higher. December could be relatively flat since we've already seen strong gains in November.
DeleteNext year is going to be rocky. In the first quarter SPX drop to test the weekly 50 but the average is rising about 200 points every 4 months.
So what we would expect is that SPX probably is rising to test the high of 4,800 and then drop to the 50 weekly which by that time could be around 4,400.
Normally I would consider a short trade here with Israeli hostages deal, but I just don't think there is a lot of time or room for pullback just yet.
ReplyDeleteSC...
ReplyDelete"I still thinking SPX is trending up from 3,500 but a nasty drop is coming that will erase a lot of gains very quickly."
When is this nasty drop suppose to happen?
After a new all time high or ?
We should see some dip or sideways first for SPX. After that consolidation maybe another pop to test near the highs before it rolls over. Big trades are coming but we may need to get through some sideways first.
DeleteThis is a historic event we are witnessing unfolding. I have reviewed my VIX model and it shows exactly what is happening and when.
ReplyDeleteIt's all about volatility! That is what is important in this market.
ReplyDeleteJust in the last 60 days VIX ran from 12 to 23 a 91% move then dropped from 23 back to 12! It's starting to swing aggressively as we are in the later stages.
ReplyDelete4900
ReplyDeleteShould see another pop some sideways for SPX short term.
ReplyDeleteDo you mean 4800-4900 for q1 2024?
DeleteUS economic growth for last quarter is revised up to a 5.2% annual rate.
ReplyDeleteObviously the GDP is giving them a short term boost but that'll fade soon.
ReplyDelete"Pending home sales drop to a record low, even worse than during the financial crisis"
ReplyDeleteReal estate market dead as we approach the historic mortgage reset crisis.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly while U.S. GDP grew at a 5.2% rate in the third quarter, Canada's economy shrank by 0.3% in the third quarter!!!
ReplyDeleteCanada is terribly underperforming the United States and that indicates more exposure to losses in the next downturn...
i believe there gonna pump market up
ReplyDeleteMight see an early December pop!
DeleteInflation has eased but largely that is because oil is trading relatively lower. Once oil rises then so does inflation.
ReplyDeleteSc...
ReplyDeleteDo you see s&p 500 going below 4000 in 2024 ?
The 3,500 SPX low of 2022 is likely to hold for now although this chart shows that breaking eventually.
DeleteThe 200 weekly SPX is right near 4,000 but it's rising. We could test that next year.
I think the 50 and 200 averages will be tested a number of times. Certain indexes are weaker. Small caps in particular still look very weak and we can see capitulation in those stocks.
For VIX watch around 9. In 2017 the last major low VIX was in the 9's.
ReplyDeleteSC... OCGN Is done for ?
ReplyDeleteits trading 40 cents now.. down from our 4 dollar entry
you still see it going to 15 bucks?
I have a plan for OCGN. It's going to have it's run but from a lower base. So there's no point entering or averaging yet. I'm just waiting for the right moment. I am anticipating the run winter 2024/2025. Even though it seems cheap, and there is good value, I'll wait because it likely has more downside first.
DeleteNice strong runs for LABU up towards the prior high of June.
ReplyDeleteProbably a little more upside left. $130 or so.
DeleteSVXY our trade a strong runner. I think it'll go sideways soon though.
ReplyDeleteSPX rallying to new highs as shown. The chart is playing out very nicely!
ReplyDelete4900 plus
ReplyDeleteAlaway appreciate your insight. I agree with you. There are many reasons to be collapsed but there is no sign of collapse. What's your time line for the market drop? Any thoughts on NG?
DeleteSC.. so your saying we go to 5400 before we make a move down?
ReplyDeleteor where do you see this current rally topping out?
We did get the pop now SPX is sideways and down into January.
DeleteSCNovember 30, 2023 at 1:16 PM
"Might see an early December pop!"
SPX is almost overbought on weekly. Might see just a little more around 4,800 and shallow pullback to maybe 4,500.
Deleteif we hit 4500 i will go long there
DeleteDo you see the spx visiting oxtober lows in 2024 SC?
ReplyDeleteDoubt it with the Election year. More action afterwards.
DeleteCertain small caps do look weaker. KODK for example is in a bear configuration. It could capitulate soon. I'm watching and waiting.
ReplyDeleteanybody hear about nesara gesara
ReplyDeleteSorry Louis. Ubsurd
DeleteWhat's ubsurd
DeleteYes, but not sure how it would occur
ReplyDeleteSPX hit near 4,800 and that was resistance as expected. Heading into holiday trading now. Probably drift back up to test 4,800 again.
ReplyDeleteLABU running hot! Time to load up. Chart coming...
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete