Monday, April 1, 2024
XLE - Strong Oil!
The talk of cutting rates during the inflationary Cycle is pressuring Oil shares higher. This coupled with worldwide wars underway, and the bursting of the the mirage that electric cars would reduce oil consumption in the short term is leading to an Oil surge. In addition, on the supply side, the artificial selling of Oil out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been absorbed easily into the market and time is running out. Weekly
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This is one of the most explosive charts I have ever seen.
ReplyDeleteXLE has been consolidating for years for the coming Oil spike! Price is strengthening and rising week after week!!
ReplyDeleteWe can see the 200 weekly starting to firm up as it prepares to launch XLE and GUSH into the stratosphere!
ReplyDeleteI am bringing this situation to your attention to put on watch. Price is getting a little overbought here and I would not chase just yet. We should expect some flattening before it goes vertical...
ReplyDeleteThanks SC - seems like oil could re-test or even best the 2007 highs of $147...USO/GUSH/XLE could do very well in the near future.
ReplyDeleteExactly! Oil may actually just gap up to $150 repricing to a new level.
Delete$250 seems like a good target once it breaks out from this large base.
Delete"U.S. crude oil cracks $85 to hit highest level since October as geopolitical tensions mount"
ReplyDeleteOil cracks 87 today. SPX pulling back...seems like they could be inversely correlated for a short period of time. Let's see if we get any action into the eclipse Monday.
DeleteThat is a good point. At some price high Oil becomes quite damaging to the market and they can become inversely related. Oil makes very aggressive moves at times for example in 2008.
Deletelooks like you prefer XLE for trading oil instead of USO?
ReplyDeleteBased on my charting it is Oil company shares specifically that are extremely undervalued. XLE is an etf that represents that sector of the market. UCO is different because it's an Oil commodity fund.
DeleteSo although the commodity Oil is anticipated to rise, yes my preference in this case to trade is actually Oil stock.
thank you.
Delete"U.S. oil touches $87"
ReplyDeleteMight be getting close to the vertical phase soon with war tensions rising in Iran/Israel
DeleteNotice on this chart that XLE didn't experience the bear market of 2022 that we saw in SPX. Instead XLE consolidated and grinding higher.
ReplyDeleteLong uso calls and just bought some xle to go with it. Thanks SC. Pretty sure the hedge funds are short both oil/energy stocks, so we could see some explosive short covering once oil moves higher.
DeleteSPX correction with inflation. All the things we have talked about. Though watching UVXY it hasn't moved much.
ReplyDeleteOil shares should get a little higher in short term. GUSH looking to test 2022 levels of $50. It's not overbought.
ReplyDeleteIran getting ready to strike Israel - could see the next leg up start soon.
DeleteCrude can certainly trade at an increased premium due to increasing geopolitical risks.
DeleteUVXY reverse split today
ReplyDeleteUVXY looks like it's basing for a spike of sorts
DeleteAgree it seems so. Maybe later in May possibly...
Delete"Saudi Aramco CEO says energy transition is failing, world should abandon ‘fantasy’ of phasing out oil"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/saudi-aramco-ceo-says-energy-transition-is-failing-give-up-fantasy-of-phasing-out-oil.html
Iran has launched drone attacks at Israel, IDF military says
ReplyDeleteSPX had a bad week. Just as I'd said in March it was due for a bad week.
ReplyDeleteThis week SPX should recover.
ReplyDeleteSPX nearing the bottom of its island top - QQQ looks more like an island top and in similar position
DeleteDJT has come down to what soon may be attractive for a least a bounce. Probably a bounce and lower.
ReplyDeleteMany people may be surprised that oil didn't spike on Iran attack. But it's a worsening situation and we wait, that spike is coming...
ReplyDeleteIf Israel takes out Iran's oil capabilities or takes them offline temporarily...oil going to spike to 150 by end of month lol. Currently not priced in...
Deletethat gap at 85 is now closed, Long LABU 96
ReplyDeletestopped out again, bear is here, 10 yr destroying growth stocks
DeleteI'm thinking LABU may be worthwhile in the 80's but only bounce to ~ $115
DeleteBought DJT $23.40.
ReplyDeleteTrump immunity claim April 25th. Stock can bounce as a result.
DeleteBought OXY $66.10.
ReplyDeletePlan to build up positions in Oil stock GUSH. When Oil spike imminent I'll then load XLE calls.
ReplyDeleteAre you thinking within next few weeks?
DeleteFor now Oil just slowly warming up and accumulate GUSH and OXY. Oil can rise more short term.
DeleteIt will take some time for Oil to get ready though for the big move probably months for the biggest move.
Took profits DJT $27.60.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDelete"Trump Media shares soar by more than 20% on second day of strong gains"
Oil shares up this morning on Israel strike overnight.
ReplyDeleteSPX still really showing no signs of bottoming. Looking like a bit lower yet.
ReplyDeleteJust as I'd suspected..
ReplyDeleteSCFebruary 22, 2024 at 11:21 AM
"Market is up on fake Nvidia news the hypeiest stock out there. Hope everyone is getting ready for the selloff that soon follows.."
Nvidia big plunges likely coming but it will mess around at the top first.
ReplyDeleteAI isn't going to help people when mortgages reset to 15%
ReplyDeleteGlobal military spending reached a record high of $2,443 billion in 2023 amid a “global deterioration in peace and security,” the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said Monday.
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting for lower prices on Biotech XBI and LABU. Soon...
ReplyDeleteSure enough, more selling to come
ReplyDelete"GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, well below expectations"
ReplyDeleteNotice Oil shares are up today.
ReplyDeleteThat's a "tell"
DeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete