$SPX - 15min Update

I thought it was interesting that the close was right at the white triangle that I have been charting for some time.  This may be a backtest and significant support level.

15min Chart

$SPX - Volatile Day

On the weekend I said this:

"My cycle analysis has been working very well in capturing the turn timing for major swings.  Weakness Monday may not last long because the cycle analysis looks very bullish starting later on Monday, and especially Tuesday."

"On Friday, price was stopped at the red fork line.  I suspect that a pullback here may only test the turquoise fork line, and then the rally may resume once again."

There was a strong bounce up from the turquoise line into the close as per the analysis. 

I'll size things up in the morning, but I think mkts could bounce strongly from a weak opening.   

15min Chart

$SPX - Similar Bottoming Patterns

The similarity of the recent bottoming pattern compared to mid-June suggests to respect the strength of the current rally. 

My cycle analysis has been working very well in capturing the turn timing for major swings.  Weakness Monday may not last long because the cycle analysis looks very bullish starting later on Monday, and especially Tuesday.

There are several other intriguing patterns that I am monitoring closely.  The price action tomorrow will be important, and I will have further details on that tomorrow. 

On Friday, price was stopped at the red fork line.  I suspect that a pullback here may only test the turquoise fork line, and then the rally may resume once again.

2hour Chart

$SPX - Coiling

A large triangle may be in the works with price action coiling.  There are several trend/fork lines crossing in the 1190 area. 

Today looks quite bullish in my cycle work, but tomorrow looks more problematic (bearish), and so may see a dip after today.  It might be wise to approach carefully as the triangle matures - at least on a short term basis.

30min Chart

$SPX - Triangle Apex Hit - Bullish

Interestingly, on Friday SPX declined with a direct hit at the triangle apex.  In terms of timing, strong reversals often occur at a triangle apex.  In this case that would be bullish for the markets.

The turquoise fork lines that I have shown in previous charts have continued to be useful in outlining the sideways consolidation that the markets have experienced since early August. 

The cycle analysis that I have been using with good success is quite bullish next week. 

As well, Nasdaq 100 has been outperforming SPX, and that is often another positive indicator.   

15min Chart      



Nasdaq 100 has been outperforming SPX as shown in the following comparison, and has been increasing it's lead in recent weeks.  The index appears to be leading up.

15min Chart



$SPX - 15min Update

The turquoise fork lines from the August 29th SPX 15min chart have worked well in marking turning points.  The top was marked with a slight overshoot, and in addition, there was a decent bounce up from the lower line today.

My cycle work called for a decline with peak bearishness centered on today (as mentioned last week).  According to that analysis, the cycle remains moderately bearish until Friday.  Starting this Friday it turns quite bullish again including the majority of next week.

15min Chart

$RUT - Looking Top Heavy

Last Friday, I said that my cycle work was bullish for this week.  That has been accurate with the market grinding higher this week.  Using that same analysis, next week looks bearish particularly early in the week centered around Tuesday. 

This also matches up with the summer 2010/2011 timing similarity that I outlined in the last post.

The small caps hit an interesting point yesterday with a reversal down. 

4hour Chart