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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

$SPX - Coiling

A large triangle may be in the works with price action coiling.  There are several trend/fork lines crossing in the 1190 area. 

Today looks quite bullish in my cycle work, but tomorrow looks more problematic (bearish), and so may see a dip after today.  It might be wise to approach carefully as the triangle matures - at least on a short term basis.

30min Chart

99 comments:

  1. Hi SC & followers, silver & gold could be getting ready to tumble shortly.

    Also SPX looks like it could drop to 1100-1110 area.

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  2. Wow did anyone see that drop on SPX? it was crazy

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  3. Rocky open for sure.

    Austria's Financial Minister Denies Wire Reports That Parliament Had Rejected Increasing European Bailout Fund (Story Developing)

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  4. I have been watching that triangle for some time. Looks like it breaks one way or the other around sept.21. Question is, which way does it break.... up or down? I am inclined to think down but that's just a wild guess.

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  5. close out oil short for very small profits. Still short silver for now. also adding to my dollar long here

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  6. Anybody else sees similarity of todays gold price action with the fall of 1979? It hit first top in early october, then coiled for 2 months and after that doubled in price by January 1980.

    If we are to apply the same time line/price targets - im coming up with 3840 USD/Oz of gold by December 24th 2011. That puts silver (if we are to challenge april's gold silver ratio of 30 in this timeframe) at atleast 128 USD/oz+ .

    This all would happen within 3months from today. We can only guess what would be the driving force for such gold price explosion.

    1979-1980 Chart:

    http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/1360/gold198027835457.gif

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  7. The white line on the chart above comes in at 1189. Not far away now!

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  8. Why gold and silver trading lower although Greece default seems like obvious? So does that mean if Greece survived both will shoot higher? I though gold and silver both reached to this height due to fear of debt so surprise by reaction

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  9. Bkuemoon to double from here expectation put you with other people who claims gold to be 5k or to da moon; time is different and don't think it will happen within one year, big gold bull will shake one more time small investors before taking to that height

    Just my thought

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  10. SB,

    don't categorize people but rather look at the price action. Im simply drawing parallels. History has a tendency to repeat.

    SC,

    Is there anyway your cycle is 3-4months off? Both metals run from here into the fall/winter and then "crash" around december 2011 - january 2012?

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  11. Next cycle peak on the SPX 60min chart is likely first thing in the morning.

    http://tinyurl.com/3seujlo

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  12. Booked the gains.

    Hit the SPX trendline 1189.

    Both RUT and Rifin only have double topped with this morning - weaker than SPX. That puts this rally on shaky ground short term at least.

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  13. Just bought more TZA here. I am sticking with the idea that the markets will have to test 1000 on the S&P and 10000 on the Dow. I believe it will happen in next couple of weeks. Then it will be interesting. We will then see panic which we have only had a little taste of even though the markets have come down significantly since July.

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  14. Thanks Zigzag that could be, could be a little early yet, will consider shorting today or tomorrow morning.

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  15. Zigzag, could that time (11ET tomorrow) be a bottom instead of top?

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  16. Yes, if we can get a big enough swoosh down in the morning that could definitely happen.

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  17. 1197 is where the turquoise line rests. I'll be watching that if it continues to grind higher.

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  18. Very cautious here with this rally today, looks like it could be a fake push up on very light volume.

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  19. Hello SC, ZigZag

    How big a swoosh down, you guys are expecting to make a bottom
    by 11 ET ?

    Like hitting lower white line @ 1145 SPX, or the red/orange pitchfork line @ 1120 SPX ? Wow-wee it would be, ....... but just asking.

    Thank you for your Analysis, SC .
    How much weakness in SPX you're expecting tomorrow? and are you really expecting the (day)Low around 11 ET ?

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  20. Eminis/SP failed at upper range for the day ....as posted I am a bear! Got swing shorts in off the high.........master cycle says it should be fun! Good trading to all! joed

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  21. gabeR

    Just checking, you sold longs somewhat lower? But you did not go short till today? or adding to previous shorts?

    You're an inspiring trader. Are you expecting SPX selloff to start tomorrow or later, like next week -- after the options expiration?

    Thanks, look forward to SC and your posts/thoughts.

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  22. pattern wise we wont see new lows in the next 2-3 wks

    lots of bears, lots of bear blogs

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  23. Hi Anon, I'm not sure if we will have a swoosh down before that cycle time or not. My thinking is the 11:00ET will be the next peak and I'm using that as a time to exit some longs that I got on that cycle low on Monday.

    The Aug 9th cycle low on my daily chart should hold IMO.

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  24. My cycle analysis was bullish for Mon, Tues, and today. Tomorrow is fairly bearish and Fri is flat. It doesn't always line up ideally, but it does suggest a higher probability of a selloff tomorrow.

    The 11 ET time is intriguing as a result. SPX closed right at the white trendline 1189 after surging over it briefly! Cliffhanger close...

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  25. anon

    I have been doing some teaching so I sold the rest of my longs yesterday into the high so my mind was clear or I would have today..........todays shorts are the start of my swing position! Thank you for your kind words! Good trading

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  26. Sorry bluemoon wasn't trying to hurt your feelings..........

    Good call Blake on day silver call......any signal for today?

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  27. Stockboom,

    Still short this morning, but if it doesn't get additional weakness in the next couple of hours, it will likely close out and possibly go long. For now I am short, I will let you know if it changes.

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  28. Ok Blake will wait for your inputs

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  29. I am very bullish on the dollar. Started building my position around 74.5 on the dollar index. I have 75% of what I want now. Waiting to get another buy signal soon to add teh other 25%.

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  30. Hi SC & followers, I wonder if gold & silver are slowly starting to roll over here. We should start to see some weakness over the next week or so. I think if gold closes below 1800 it is bearish.

    I am bearish SPX going into Oct but I wonder if they push this market higher to the 1230-1250 area before we plunge to 1000-1050 to end wave 5.

    Like to hear your thoughts

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  31. Muzz,
    I see 1790 as a more important level for gold than 1800.

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  32. SPX still holding fairly well, 1215 is an area to watch. Top out this morning looks likely, and drop.

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  33. Thanks SC & Blake, let's see how it plays out :)

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  34. Sold my longs from the Monday 14:00ET cycle low. It's close enough today for me :-)

    http://tinyurl.com/3o3rkew

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  35. dollar looks like it might have one more push lower intraday, but it looks very close to a local bottom to me. Should push over 80 on the next rally IMO. I am tempted to pick some up here, but going to wait till the action turns bullish

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  36. Great work zigzag, are you looking to short yet or waiting?

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  37. Hi Blake

    i have jumped in HZU at 1168 for scalp bope i will be ok; what is your system telling you?

    Thanks

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  38. Thanks Muzz and Blake, I started a small short on that last spike.

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  39. Stockboom,

    I do not know what HZU is. I am still short silver. No change yet. From the looks of it, there could be quite a bit more downside here, there still doesn't appear to be much fear in the PM's yet. I will let you know when I close out my short, but no reason to right now.

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  40. The metals are getting killed, I am loving it :)

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  41. Agree Blake the metals are in a down trend now let's just go with the flow, I see more downside over the next week or two. The may really get smashed hard before one more big rally then I think an even bigger fall coming down the track :)

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  42. SC- Thursday Down, Friday Flat. What does cycle says for next week?

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  43. Metals getting killed? we are near 1800 gold and 40 silver, nowhere close to getting killed yet.

    Silver landed on the important '10-'11 support line, from here it usually rallies. Lets see if this will repeat for a 5th time.

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  44. Sal - Late Monday, Tues look quite bullish, but there is room for a decline today/tomorrow.

    I need to make some calculations to determine the rest of next week. Should have that later today. Will let you know.

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  45. Pull up multi year chart for silver and look at 150DMA, it held since '08. Currently its at 38.20, if we get a sustained move below then that would be significant, otherwise it could just bounce and keep on grinding higher.

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  46. bluemoon- Are you long gold and silver right now?

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  47. closed out silver short for now...will wait for a new signal before re-entering in either direction

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  48. Financials in particular have held well all day today. I'd like to see some weakness in them before shorting.

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  49. Adding to swing position shorts at 1206.5 in the night session....have a cycle turn for the 16th and 20th.........if my cycle work holds up this kinda move can leave without ya trying to get the perfect setup! Good trading! joed

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  50. EMINI DEC

    RESISTANCE ........1209,1212 upper 1225! Good trading!

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  51. Gabe,

    Still looking for 950 by Oct?

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  52. SPX daily cycle alignment hit another top today.

    http://tinyurl.com/3nb9can

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  53. ckorey

    Yes............or I am wrong and the cycle inverts! Price will talk soon enough! Good trading!

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  54. Gabe,

    So 250 SPX points up or down?........................wow

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  55. ckory


    Target SPY 99
    EMINI DEC 980

    That's just this year.............Good trading! joed

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  56. ckorey

    Thanks but I have stops.......our country needs the luck! This is a complete reset not he 80's retrace! Good trading! joed

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  57. SPX weekly line chart points to probable peak this week.

    http://tinyurl.com/3zjfnzr

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  58. buy signal on silver last night. looks very significant actually

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  59. I am traveling so I am not trading, but I would probably go long silver here if I was going to be in the office today.

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  60. Added to my dollar long. Now have a full position. Have a good day everyone, i am traveling so wont be around. See you next week

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  61. I talked yesterday of the EMINI DEC 1220 resistance area............todays daily mid range resistance was 1214.75....price high came off at 1214.50 and is now at 1202.......Good trading! joed

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  62. Gabe,

    See a pullback to 1185ish SPX then there is room for move higher to 1260.

    Be careful.

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  63. MY LAST POST SHOULD HAVE READ..........

    I talked yesterday of the 1212 resistance area...

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  64. ckorkey,

    that is my take as well, but if we fail at the 1185 level, then I can see Gabe's scenario unfolding quickly.

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  65. more specifically,i have the 1160-1180 zone as the area that can halt the pullback.

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  66. PK,

    Yep, but has to pullback first lol!

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  67. gold silver rebounding nicely, target 1900-1950 gold, 43-45 silver, the reassess.

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  68. From the high of 1371 to low of 1101..............

    50 fib ................1235

    61.8 fib .............1260

    I have turn dates end of next week.

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  69. SC - I exited my longs today - On sideline - Waiting for confirmation for short or long continuation signal - What is your read?

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  70. Short term Divergences are developing to enter short (Not yet) Need confirmation

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  71. SC - Your cycle analysis still stands Bullish for Monday and Tuesday? What do you see for rest of next week?

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  72. Finally, the Financials are relatively underperforming today. 1215 SPX area was hit as mentioned yesterday.

    For today, my cycle analysis showed flat. It turns quite bullish again late Monday, and Tues. Waiting for the next set of data to see after that.

    A pullback is possible, but all things considered, may only see a sideways consolidation here.

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  73. SC - Thanks - you were right on the money on this move up (as usual) Keep up with the intelligent performance.

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  74. 1185-1187 should hold then up again into FED meeting.

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  75. Look at June 27th to July 7th.

    Repeat?

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  76. I've been watching that similarity as well.

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  77. Consolidation and move upward OR smart money is holding the market till they sell their positions and drop it to 1065 - Which way? Please give me a hint.

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  78. I think there is one more pop next week.

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  79. I still like my daily cycle for a top here. Next move should be a a test of my Aug 9th cycle low. Break that, and it gets ugly fast.

    http://tinyurl.com/6c5xgf5

    Have a good weekend.

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  80. ZigZag - Great cycle chart. Short term divergences are calling for a sell here. We shall see what Monday brings. Thanks for the response.

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  81. GET READY TO RUMBLE......................!!!!!

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  82. gabe you think we start falling this week?

    Sept 20 could be a possible greek default

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  83. Sami


    Yes I do............and if my cycle work continues to hold up most will be left behind because of the force of it! Good trading!

    “KNOWING WHEN TO TRADE IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN WHICH LINE TO DRAW”

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  84. Stay tuned - spotted several patterns that may prove interesting (to say the least) for next week. There could be a surprise coming as I will explain.

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  85. http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/8492/spydaily.gif

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  86. http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/8492/spydaily.gif

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  87. http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/8492/spydaily.gif

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  88. http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/3151/spydaily2.gif

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  89. GOLD ETF.............GLD DAILY

    http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/8688/gldgolddaily.gif

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  90. SPX weekly cycle suggests top.

    http://tinyurl.com/3ca7bgx

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  91. Gabe,

    Nice charts, still see room up to 1230-1260 but you never know.

    I have no sell signal yet.

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  92. Gabe,

    From your charts do you expect SPY to rise to about 126, then drop to about 100 by Oct. 20?

    Also, thanks for all your contributions. As a novice I look forward to your (and SC's) insight as I try to learn about cycles and market analysis.

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  93. kygold61

    I trade "time" first and price S/R into it.....it seems everyone here is more interested in targets! Although I am short and will have a nice profit in the next day or so...I believe there is still time into the high! My style is to continue to take the short side intra day with large positions and small stops til it takes! If you will notice my swing chart with the GREEN line retracements, there has been NO overbalince in swings so there is no geometric evidence that this market is on bull move up! By the way my neural net system has done %450 in 18 months and is still short, of course it is a trend system for the large moves and is slow to react by design but it is sonething to note! Good trading! joed

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  94. Completely agree regarding time vs. price. The value of timing is underrated. It is a natural tendency to focus on price, but it is time that is the most important.

    The time cycles will dictate price targets.

    What I have found is that my time cycles have been working well, and have found it best to focus first on trading the timing cycle analysis, then fine tune price targets.

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  95. Gabe,

    Thanks for your response, and very impressive track record.

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