Sunday, March 8, 2026
Oil - Historic Oil Shock!
Oil has surged 35% this week for the biggest gain in futures trading history. Records will continue to be broken as Oil shocks intensify. The Middle East has been unstable for a long long time, and finally war has engulfed throughout the entire region. We're in War Times and the largest beneficiary will be Oil!
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Oil may be the single best investment strategy for the next 10 years!
ReplyDeleteOil share sector XLE has been running since 2020. 2020 to 2023 was a 3 year run. Then went sideways for 2023 to 2025. Now the runup has started again probably for several years.
ReplyDeleteWhat is clear is that Trump had a strategic plan. First he knocked out Iran's nuclear sites last year. Then secured a source of Oil for war from Venezuela. Once the Oil was secured proceeded with a full attack on Iran.
ReplyDeleteSC how low do you see the S&p going this year?
ReplyDeleteLast year I had predicted a 20% drop in SPX and that was bang on. For this year I do think volatility is easing a bit after so many big volatility events since 2018. Obviously later I'm expecting much bigger with VIX going over 100 as war spreads. It takes time.
DeleteYes Iran is a factor but it is more critical for countries that rely on Middle Eastern Oil. That is why Korea and Japanese markets plummeted. Jerome Powell’s term as Chair of the Federal Reserve expires in May 2026. A new Fed Chair more in line with Trump will probably buoy markets.
DeleteUS markets have other problems too though. I see AI was a leader and it is getting weaker and weaker. Maybe we see that impact in the second half. It should be more interesting around the Midterms for declines.
Oil spiked to $120 overnight near the level when Russia attacked Ukraine. Price has settled with G7 planning to meet and discuss releasing Oil from reserves. As we know Biden sold half the Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Some supply is online from Venezuela though.
ReplyDeleteThe main adjustment now is that Oil trades higher now with a geopolitical risk premium.
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Delete"Oil prices have surged more than 17% since the International Energy Agency announced the largest release of crude stockpiles in its 50-year history."
ReplyDelete6200 SPX coming
ReplyDeleteLarge spike in Oil as Trump threatens to attack Iran’s energy facilities in 10 days, April 6.
ReplyDeleteVolatility pops, UVXY heating up!
ReplyDeleteTrump's getting ready to flatten Iran!!!
ReplyDelete$60 oil is a thing of the past. We'll never ever see that low again!
ReplyDeleteUS increasing troops and military in the Middle East. As the war intensifies in Iran in coming months the volatility will also increase...
ReplyDeleteMarkets can bounce here a few weeks while the military builds up in the region. Then a more substantial selloff for months.
ReplyDeleteLet it bounce and we'll short it...
ReplyDeleteBig spike in Crude after Trump speech!!
ReplyDeleteIn July 2008, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil hit an all-time record high, peaking at $147.27 per barrel
ReplyDeleteOil ready for the test of the prior high of $147 a barrel
Delete150-200 possible next week?
DeleteIs the inflation adjusted 2008 high of 147 equivalent to 215-250 today?
DeleteThe spot price for current physical cargoes of Brent crude oil soared Thursday to $141.36, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
DeleteGood point Rob about the inflation adjusted pricing. Even here at $100 Oil is very cheap.
DeleteHmm oil below 100, heading back to 60s again?
DeleteOil just taking a rest, next move up will be the most explosive in the Cycle.
DeleteMay futures expire on Tuesday 21st, may see some action then.
DeleteAnother dump for oil below 80 - could be a washout low...either oil dumps even lower into the 60-70s depending on how the ceasefire negotiations end on the 21st or it surges back above 100 towards 150?
DeleteOil will continue up due to higher demand.
DeleteOil/USO looks like massive bull flag, if can get over 100 soon, might get to 130-150 pretty quickly
Delete"Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy prices"
ReplyDelete"The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that Europe is going to run out of jet fuel in as few as six weeks."
ReplyDelete"Just two vessels were observed transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from LSEG."
ReplyDeleteFor fiscal year 2027, the White House has requested a historic $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget.
ReplyDeleteOil market in crisis as we approach peak gasoline summer July and August demand!
ReplyDeleteA lot of talk that Israel convinced Trump to attack Iran. No that's not it.
ReplyDeleteTrump stopped Venezuelan oil first. That is because China was buying oil at a discount. Then next Trump blocked Iran from supplying oil to China.
It's strategy and was planned that way.
"Trump’s net approval rating on economy and overall falls to lowest of his two terms, CNBC survey shows"
ReplyDeleteTrump is out of favor currently. I do expect that this will turn around and he will become popular again. He's oversold, though there will be a massive capitulation soon...
DeleteOne more oil spike into mid-May as the capitulation event?
DeleteEurope will run out of jet fuel and then gasoline this summer. There will be huge lineups waiting at gas stations! The oil crisis to intensity!!
DeleteSC - are you expecting 150 oil retest then another pullback? Get to 150ish and then another SPR release?
DeleteYes, ceasefire did little to calm oil market. Hormuz still basically closed as we head into peak summer demand.
DeleteOil consolidating here. The next move will be fast!
DeleteSC... does s&P 500 crash this year?
ReplyDeleteThe big one will happen after the midterms.
Delete"U.S. crude oil tops $100 on report Trump dissatisfied with Iran’s proposal to open Hormuz"
ReplyDelete"The United Arab Emirates said it will exit OPEC on May 1."
ReplyDeleteOPEC failing!
DeleteCrude spikes $107 a barrel!
ReplyDeletehits 110 overnight - 150+ as soon as next week SC?
DeleteFirst I think Oil seems to be stabilizing at the $100 level.
DeleteReports now updated with anticipated shortages of jet fuel due June.
ReplyDeleteOil shock incoming in 3..2..1…lol
DeleteExactly! It's all just timing now as the jet fuel runs dry...
DeleteTrump may attempt a fake "Iran deal" soon. It might look impressive on the surface, and could pop markets briefly, but won't satisfy the market for long.
ReplyDeleteDo you think DJT is a buy down here SC?
Delete"Trump pauses U.S. bid to guide ships out of Strait of Hormuz, cites Iran deal progress"
DeleteYes, I have plans for DJT and another closely related stock. The price is good already, but still there will be dips to enter later. Also it's early for timing. It's great and will run big!
DeleteOil still being manipulated lower lol...are we approaching an important top in SPX prior to some sort of 10-20% correction?
ReplyDeleteStill I think Oil is firming around this $100 level plus or minus. For SPX this level Oil just isn't that damaging. As Oil continues to move up over $200 and as gas prices double it will become very damaging to the the US economy. The US economy is more sensitive to high Oil prices than most other countries. High gas prices will eventually trigger a crash in SPX and recession. It's coming...
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