Markets are weak and another shot of volatility can come next! A rate cut next week may be a disappointment if it does not match the markets expectations. Daily
Thanks for your comments, Rob. Things have gotten more interesting. I thought Oct would be an S&P up month since the election is on 11/05, but it's already 9/16 so I'm not sure if we have had enough time to hit the bottom. So far, only 2/10 times were down before the election.
Covered shorts on DJT at $12.50 from $42.40. Since I made this comment about DJT, Trump has had at least 2 assassination attempts, lost the debate and now large blocks of free trading shares have come available in DJT.
SCJune 28, 2024 at 7:48 AM "The debate is done and not much will happen now in terms of Election for a while. DJT could come down under $15. I'll plan to get in before the Election."
Volatility should pop again soon. Double divergence now in UVXY daily. Triple I think will be better setup. For UVXY can see around $35 the 50 weekly target.
October is the worst month for stocks in a presidential year, VIX still holding strong as SPX continues to make new highs...something seems off about this.
SC, you mentioned UAVS long time ago. It seems all the dron and flying taxi sector is moving. UAVS went up to 32% today. Any thoughts on this sector or UAVS?
SVXY ran into a brick wall of overhead resistance at the orange trendline.
ReplyDeleteNotice a death cross is imminent on SVXY daily.
ReplyDeleteThank you for sharing your thoughts. We had hindenburg omen a few months ago. Do you think UVXY $100 and UVIX $48 are possible in September?
ReplyDeleteIt is coming soon - sometime between September-November I think. We have a second Trump assassination attempt - another black swan?
DeleteThanks for your comments, Rob. Things have gotten more interesting. I thought Oct would be an S&P up month since the election is on 11/05, but it's already 9/16 so I'm not sure if we have had enough time to hit the bottom. So far, only 2/10 times were down before the election.
DeleteSMCI could be a catalyst for SMH/QQQ to take a big dipper. They still haven't filed their earnings report:
Deletehttps://justdario.com/2024/09/smci-the-nuclear-nothing-burger-that-can-expose-nvidia-shenanigans/
It's still a negative market environment by the Cycles. I'm not expecting that much for UVXY but I would do some hedging at least.
DeleteThen what is your price target?
DeleteSeptember the weakest month for stocks and gold...how will the month end?
ReplyDeleteThat's a 200 point SPX rally in the last two days...maybe it will top out going into the Fed meeting...
DeleteWeekly Hindenburg Omen signal:
ReplyDeletehttps://x.com/datruthbomb/status/1834325371661271189?s=46&t=YH-vYkuZLLPqBXU_zUYtaQ
Wondering if oil finally bottomed at 65 and getting ready for some sort of spike soon?
ReplyDeleteBoeing strike is a significant problem right now for the US.
ReplyDeleteBoeing is the fourth-largest defense contractor in the world and is one of the largest exporters in the United States by dollar value.
The longer the Boeing strike continues the more pressure it puts on the market.
ReplyDeleteIWM breakout PNF target is 269, 275 extended
ReplyDeleteit could be fast too
Sure enough SVXY continues to struggle. Back at the trendline...
ReplyDeleteCovered shorts on DJT at $12.50 from $42.40. Since I made this comment about DJT, Trump has had at least 2 assassination attempts, lost the debate and now large blocks of free trading shares have come available in DJT.
ReplyDeleteSCJune 28, 2024 at 7:48 AM
Delete"The debate is done and not much will happen now in terms of Election for a while. DJT could come down under $15. I'll plan to get in before the Election."
That means you think the market will go UP until the election in November? Are you still holding UVXY? Then what is your thoughts on UVXY?
DeleteVolatility should pop again soon. Double divergence now in UVXY daily. Triple I think will be better setup. For UVXY can see around $35 the 50 weekly target.
DeleteI think $35 is a good goal to reach. Market is getting interesting with Israel/Lebanon, Japan's new PM & Yen, the east coast strike, and election.
Deletenat gas looks like it may launch higher soon. not sure the catalyst tho
DeleteOil/vix might be getting ready to launch in October...
DeleteUVXY popping with the double divergence as anticipated
ReplyDeleteToday, UVXY has already reached $31. Are you still aiming for $35?
DeleteYes UVXY still looking likely to see more upside.
Delete$27 support now for UVXY. Consider raising UVXY target into $40's.
DeleteVolatility rising into the Election.
Volatility is up as the SPX is at the highs - perhaps another 2018 vol spike setup...
DeleteAre you referring to a timeline before or after 11/05?
DeleteOctober is the worst month for stocks in a presidential year, VIX still holding strong as SPX continues to make new highs...something seems off about this.
DeleteRight! SPX and VIX are both doing well, which doesn't make sense. I'd like to hear other people's thoughts..
DeleteInflation pops!
ReplyDeleteFlorida hurricane devastation much worse than anyone had thought
ReplyDelete"According to GasBuddy data, about 25% of the nearly 8,000 stations in the state are out of gasoline."
ReplyDeleteThe market is looking weak as the Boeing strike continues to drag on...
ReplyDeleteIt seems the market will go up till 11/5 as everyone needs money for the election. maybe a short mild correction next week though.
ReplyDeleteHopefully it will move soon, bit too quiet now ha
DeleteMy Election prediction is coming with reasoning and full comments along with how to trade it. A very special Election indeed!
ReplyDeleteuvxy/vix look like a cup and handle ready to launch higher - just awaiting a catalyst
DeleteWill we see any fireworks into 11/5?
DeleteNice cup and handle!
DeleteSC, you mentioned UAVS long time ago. It seems all the dron and flying taxi sector is moving. UAVS went up to 32% today. Any thoughts on this sector or UAVS?
ReplyDeleteI'll check this out
DeleteAny thoughts on WTI oil price? will WTI go back to USD$80?
ReplyDeleteI have an update and I'm watching the Oil. I do like it. It's still consolidating.
DeleteMostly right now I'm trading Election plays. That's where the action is...
ReplyDeleteNew chart posted!
ReplyDelete