Pages

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

VIX - Trending up for 5 Years!

VIX is king in this market. Volatility, as seen on the chart, has been trending up for 5 years!!! The biggest moves are yet to come. For now though VIX is testing the long term trendline. It may underthrow the trendline slightly before the next pop. Weekly

113 comments:

  1. So yes in fact VIX is close to the trendline near 16. VIX may undercut the line slightly here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also, how do you account for CB’s using SVIX to crush volatility?

      They been doing it like crazy since Oct and even worse in March! Vix should be 50 instead of 16

      Delete
    2. What we can see from the chart is that we're in a relatively low volatility period at the moment. However over 5 years we can see that volatility trends are rising and we can expect that the largest volatility is ahead.

      Delete
  2. Sc,

    Good time to enter UVXY or will it hit $2?

    Surprisingly no R/S yet, which usually happens when it breaks $5

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's early. Timing - we may have to wait until after the Covid public emergency ends May 11th.

      Delete
    2. Not sure I follow. What does end of Covid emergency have to do with VIX?

      US debt ceiling default risk would have more impact on volatility, imho.

      Delete
    3. Markets having a relief rally as the emergency ends.

      Delete
  3. Agree that default fears are probably the next volatility event.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "A default on our debt would trigger an economic and financial catastrophe,” Yellen warned.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Treasury General Account will be empty in May at current burn rate $50B/week

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yellen has said June.

      We should hear more estimates soon. They are quickly running out of funds in any case, and this time there is no appetite to raise the ceiling.

      Delete
  6. Hmm a default would be bearish for Oil

    ReplyDelete
  7. Odds of a default is probably 0 no ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is what is interesting.
      Most people assume no.

      Yet Janet Yellen is the head of the Treasury. She is warning again today about default and she is the person who knows.

      Delete
    2. Odds of US default at 17%.

      Check out the U.S 1yr Sovereign credit default swap (just hit at a record high).

      This is the cost of insuring U.S Treasury bonds against the risk of default.

      As it stands now the U.S has a default risk higher than China.

      Do I think they actually will default? No...but there may be some credit downgrades while they dither

      Delete
  8. sc,

    Is this the top or too early to tell SPX 4150 seems to be resistance and the fact that Potus starts his campaign for re-election, or is this a one drop?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pullback for a couple weeks here and then up into June. All part of a topping process.

      Delete
  9. June is the timing to watch.

    "Yellen told lawmakers in January the government could pay its bills only through early June without increasing the limit, which the government hit in January."

    ReplyDelete
  10. They seem to have a deal already....


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it passed the House. Problem is it won’t pass the Senate. Senate will send it back to the House. Biden doesn’t like it either.

      This is the stand-off.

      Delete
  11. Do the opposite of what they tell u

    ReplyDelete
  12. Another imminent bank failure...VIX below 16

    Clown world

    ReplyDelete
  13. Carolina, ¿que vehículo de inversión comprarías?. Muchas gracias desde España por tus comentarios!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Sc... vix now in the 15s...

    Do you think market topped ?

    ReplyDelete
  15. "The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns"

    ReplyDelete
  16. Biden now wants to negotiate the “non negotiable” debt ceiling deal....lmao

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Commander in Chief lol

      Delete
    2. Every time I see Biden it reminds me of the movie “Dave” where a body double poses as the President bc the real President is in the basement on life support

      Delete
  17. We were looking for selling in the month of April and in fact Oil shares did have a bad month. It can get a lot worse....

    ReplyDelete
  18. Sc

    VIX 21 now

    Can it hit 30 or will it
    finally break out of the triangle and shoot for 100? Haha

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX did see a reaction at the long term trendline and popped 15 over 20.

      Delete
  19. VIX is still filling in this triangle a while longer in my opinion. 15 to 25 is the range for now. It will whipsaw traders out and then shoot up high when ready.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I think we may see an undergrowth of the trendline also. When that happens we will have to move quickly and enter volatility positions because it won't last long and then the VIX moon shot occurs.

    ReplyDelete
  21. "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said that failure to raise the debt ceiling will cause a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S."

    ReplyDelete
  22. Debt ceiling should be raised, I don't think out politicians are that foolish, if they put it off- we will drop quickly!

    ReplyDelete
  23. I see small H&S pattern on SVIX. Completing R shoulder now.

    ReplyDelete
  24. @Dunn6ster,
    Normally I would agree with you but debt ceiling default and crashing economy into election year is bad for incumbent President. So D’s better suck it up and eat what McCarthy is serving up.

    ReplyDelete
  25. SPX can rally towards 4,200 May. Expect selling to 4,000 June.

    ReplyDelete
  26. DRIP ever so close. May dip once more before she goes

    ReplyDelete
  27. sc,

    we been stuck in the same range for more then 30 days, a lot of traders are in cash (big boys), waiting for a debt ceiling solution, I know want Spx 4200 but SPX 4150, seems to be a problem, any advice?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know it's been pretty slow. We're in a lull at the moment. The volatility started in 2018 and ramped up. But here we are in the eye of the hurricane. It's slow under Biden. Different personality than Trump.

      The biggest action in volatility is still ahead. So we wait the VIX. Until then let's see what we can do. There's always some action somewhere. Oil as a short still is working. Soon that will be ready.

      Delete
  28. 10% daily move for LABU/LABD, any idea which way to go in about two to three months?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 98 pt on double top breakout for Xbi
      DRV target 98 on weekly triple top breakout

      Delete
    2. I like the biotech alot. Starting to firm up. It may be seasonal so expect more action approaching Fall and Winter.

      Delete
    3. That double top breakout was sweet as it gets...90 will be sticky....then off to 102 max

      Delete
  29. SC .. do you see the VIX 182 happening this year ? 2024 or 2025?

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The biggest move will be after the 2024 Election I believe. Just when no one suspects. There will be pops and spikes and false starts before the big moves.

      Delete
  30. Sami,
    No one knows the answer to that?

    ReplyDelete
  31. The Vix may have a move up into early June!

    ReplyDelete
  32. Well my 4,200 SPX has hit!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is the next target sc ?

      Down ?

      Delete
    2. SPX can still see higher but it's going to be a grind for small gains. Then it will get more interesting June to September.

      Delete
    3. What is the low target you.have for 2023 ?

      What price do you think we go down to in 2023 ?

      Thanks

      Delete
    4. For 2023 frankly I'm not expecting too much, but market conditions are deteriorating as we approach the 2024 election.

      I'll post the SPX chart.

      Delete
  33. "Fraying U.S.-China relations and rising tensions over Taiwan have influential business leaders such as Elon Musk and Warren Buffett sounding alarms about a possible invasion – a matter that will likely loom over the 2024 election."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly as I've said for years

      Delete
    2. Buffet is an insider and has pulled out of Taiwan. He knows what is coming.

      Delete
  34. This was correct. Next we will see a default scare and pop in volatility in June. Oil and SPX to drop.

    SCApril 25, 2023 at 10:25 AM
    "Pullback for a couple weeks here and then up into June. All part of a topping process."

    ReplyDelete
  35. What level do you expect spx to drop of to ?

    ReplyDelete
  36. very hard to predict this scenario!

    ReplyDelete
  37. The vix have to go up 18 , it doesn't looks like

    ReplyDelete
  38. it will rise, if default scare happens, very doubtful, at this time!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Look at the weakly chart, the 50 moving average cross 200

    ReplyDelete
  40. ummm did anyone take the double top breakout on XBI

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am looking at LABU/LABD. The volume makes me very confused. Very different pattern than BOIL/KOLD. Any thoughts?

      Delete
  41. Gov't are looking take money away from covid and use the funds in different areas, bio-techs may not be in favor to after the debt ceiling debate becomes more clear!

    ReplyDelete
  42. sc,

    You were looking for a double top, you will get it Tuesday, if not today!

    US action on short-sellers likely in 'next few months', a DOJ official has said per Reuters.

    ReplyDelete
  43. R.i.p ocgn.... weve been holding the bag on this pos since 4 follars .... ouch

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OCGN may go lower yet but still it's an aggressive stock when it moves. In May they said the pandemic was over. So what happens come flu season and Covid shows again?

      Delete
  44. Today we can see GUSH selling off again. So regardless of debt ceiling deals the weakness in oil shares is signaling a selloff coming in SPX soon. July into August selling likely

    ReplyDelete
  45. SC, don't you think NDX is going to ATH like the dax?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is possible with NDX. Other markets are weaker.

      Delete
  46. Ndx is running being lead up by less then 10 companies, it can keep going, ride the wave to it stops, normally this never ends well, but we will not know to we get their, be nimble!

    ReplyDelete
  47. Oil down again! Very weak. GUSH is about to Crack $100 support

    ReplyDelete
  48. I think that the vote tonight will not end well, bit the debt ceiling will be raised later in the week, Nvda went to 380 today, I am waiting to see tonight's outcome, Aapl is holding us up today!

    ReplyDelete
  49. SC vix break the line, no capitulation

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We'll see the reaction to the VIX trendline soon enough

      Delete
    2. VIX being manipulated with SVIX. Not sure how VIX will reestablish to trendline without some unforeseen black swan

      Delete
  50. GUSH making a little bounce but support is going to break. Oil shares under massive pressure down.

    There's always this fascination with trying to short the strongest stock. Tech for example. As I say the best strategy is to short the weakest and Oil shares are incredibly weak.

    ReplyDelete
  51. I think you're wrong about the vix, the market is too strong

    ReplyDelete
  52. SC what is your downside target for the S&P by sept?

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DRIP does look to be getting ready to spike. Rising since November! I do think oil shares will drop July and August. SPX will decline significantly this summer.

      Delete
    2. Let's wait for this rally to finish then look at SPX targets

      Delete
  53. As long as we stay above Spx 4160, we can go higher with minor pull backs, no fear yet!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SPX should grind higher for now but it looks like a nasty summer.

      Delete
    2. Will VIX hit single digits?

      Delete
    3. Doubt it would get there now

      Delete
  54. This debt ceiling deal is the worst case scenario in many ways. The market is tired of debt and that is why inflation continues to be the problem. There is a lack of ability to balance the budget. Since they haven't addressed the problem the market will force them to address the debt in due course.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Vix very low, do you really wait it up again? I am not

    ReplyDelete
  56. VIX should be ready July. We'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  57. LABU running, should be good over $8.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Yes the market is likely to continue to rally higher short term. However what I anticipate is that the recession will return and the market will collapse rapidly losing all gains. VIX can spike to around 40 initially. Russia has been slowly wearing down Ukraine and as Russia scores victories in the war the markets will sink even further. VIX reaching 75 in this Cycle.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So 40 July and 75 Sept/Oct?

      Delete
    2. First the market will get choppy before the larger declines. Market are rallying for short term and then choppy topping process. So it'll take time. I was thinking over several years.

      Delete
  59. market gonnna get slammed in the face is it gonna be july lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The rally still had legs for a bit but yes. Once everyone believes in bull market, down she'll go

      Delete
    2. wonder how high are you thinking 4500 to 4600

      Delete
    3. Market gonna look like Biden on a bicycle! Lmao!

      Delete
  60. wait 3 weeks, next 5 after are statistically are worst months

    ReplyDelete
  61. SC, can you give us a roadmap and targets for the next weeks in SPX and VIX ?.

    ReplyDelete