SPX can continue somewhat higher, but is likely to see a 10% drop during 2022. The index is becoming overextended on the weekly chart. The 50 weekly average makes a good target. Weekly
When we consider the math in more depth this looks more serious. Before we did not have to include inflation. It was negligible. Now we have considerable inflation.
Let's assume inflation is also 10%. A 10% drop in SPX becomes a 20% drop in real terms inflation adjusted.
The word crash itself is overused. I only use this term to describe the largest historical drops. A crash is not realistic for 2022, and we already saw a large decline last year. Normally these events do not happen so close together in time.
New York the covid--testing sites ---lines are long --it use to take 4 hours to get results --now 24 hours ---it is getting worse and people will see it!
December 2018 redeaux....Vix target of 58 got to get back at Joe M because he has brains enough to see the Build Bolsheviks Better boondoggle socialism, no one should have to pay for someone else's kids or illegal aliens...
SPX is probably getting closer to a 10% drop.
ReplyDeleteWhen we consider the math in more depth this looks more serious. Before we did not have to include inflation. It was negligible. Now we have considerable inflation.
Let's assume inflation is also 10%. A 10% drop in SPX becomes a 20% drop in real terms inflation adjusted.
SPX isn't much higher currently than at the end of August. If it is outpacing inflation it certainly isn't by much.
ReplyDeleteSo all these talks of impending market crash isn't to pan out in 2022 ?
ReplyDeleteThe word crash itself is overused. I only use this term to describe the largest historical drops. A crash is not realistic for 2022, and we already saw a large decline last year. Normally these events do not happen so close together in time.
ReplyDeleteStill though SPX is getting closer to a significant decline.
ReplyDeleteWe should see SPX higher first.
Thanks SC, same view here and also looking at cycles. short term bottom 21/22nd Dec
Delete"Biden to deliver Tuesday speech on omicron variant as Covid cases rise"
ReplyDeleteBiden speech may kick off a Santa rally... Some sweet talking to calm Covid nerves. SPX tested 50 day average last week as support.
ReplyDeleteSunday night futures down. Buy the dip SC?
ReplyDeleteYes let's pick up some bargains
DeleteSC Rally until Endo of year and then big drop to 4500?
ReplyDeleteis this your thought?
many thanks.
Yes, Year End is important. 2021 strong year with little correction.
DeleteUVXY testing to the gap area identified last week.
ReplyDeleteSCDecember 16, 2021 at 10:50 AM
"There's a $20 gap on UVXY"
Bought AMC $28.15 starting a position.
ReplyDeleteThere probably will be one more chance for AMC under $25, but with the price action last week the bottom is likely in place.
ReplyDeleteAMC chart and target posted later.
sc,
ReplyDeletewhat's cheap down at these levels???
DWAC found support at 50 day average
DeleteBanks? Rising interest rates good for earnings.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteSpx 4500--------better be support?
Santa --does not look like he is coming!
Biden speech tomorrow though
DeleteMore mandates, more authoritarian government, more scary talk, that will really tank the markets.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeletePTON---looks cheap here???
I'm buying this dip
ReplyDeleteSc,
ReplyDeleteManchin---put a stop to him so far!
Let to be seen?
"AMC CEO Adam Aron: Record 7 million people went to theaters this weekend"
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeleteThat 7 million --more infections ---our infection will double by New Years!
Lolol
Deleteguys,
ReplyDeleteNew York the covid--testing sites ---lines are long --it use to take 4 hours to get results --now 24 hours ---it is getting worse and people will see it!
I want to hear the Biden Bullshit!!
December 2018 redeaux....Vix target of 58
ReplyDeletegot to get back at Joe M because he has brains enough to see the Build Bolsheviks Better boondoggle socialism, no one should have to pay for someone else's kids or illegal aliens...
sc,
ReplyDeleteI guess the chances of new highs are getting smaller and smaller-
what ever pop we get in the next two days --could be the final pop for the year
Am I correct?
SPX can still pop to 4,700 but then 4,400.
Deletesc,
ReplyDeleteI see the same ---high is in for the year