Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
Market behaviour is looking consistent with a March 6th turn date.
are you selling at open because i was thinking smashdown friday
I plan to exit TVIX today sometime. SVXY is in a very tight range. TVIX can get whittled down a bit as we head into March.
Coronavirus is simmering down a bit. China's factories have reopened. People may calm down over the next two weeks.
Have you noticed any trends / indicators lining up to Feb 27th being an important date?
Yes, February 27th or 28th. I'm expecting this quiet period to end and the market to move more actively from that time.So I don't see it as a turn date so much as a change in the market behavior at that time.
SCFebruary 3, 2020 at 1:28 PMSPX is incredibly weak, and will not be able to surpass today's high of 3,268, but it will be retested again soon. Plan to short that level aggressively.3,200 SPX lower low soon, probably later this week.SPX is breaking, and will be choppy to start with then fall precipitously to the 200 day moving average.Selloff target 3,080 SPX month-end February.
well that didnt happen obviously lol
shorted tvix at 43.80
short covered that was nice
SC, Inverse vol has been diverging quite a bit here. I'm not so sure we see a lower low if it couldn't make one on the last 2% rally in SPX? https://imgur.com/a/ibOplAK
I know. It is a warning, yes, but the question is more about the timing.
We're approaching the $45 TVIX target.
Sold TVIX at $43.30.
Smart choice I'm short this pig againI think we go up 50 points spx
Good made 3 points
I'm shirt tvix at 43.40
Great call I still think shorting large pops are the way to go I made over 20 points shorting this
Sc I guess your looking to buy at 37
It may make sense to reenter TVIX soon. Tomorrow or Monday.
what price thou? 37
Let's try for $37 and $46 TVIX next week.
whats 37 and 46 mean are you sayin 37 to 46? thanx
SC we are at 47s now. Are we en route to 65?
Maybe, but let's wait first.
Are you still thinking we'll get to 37s TViX next week? I don't mind holding...it's a good entry as is. Will add if it gets there. Thanks as always for your updates SC!
Yes, I think so Rob. There is still time to build positions in TVIX and it should settle back. Agree. Big move is coming for TVIX March and the monster move April into May.
We didn't quite reach the $45 target today. I think it'll achieve that next week.
close enough thou
We have a good plan. Everything is coming together nicely.
i am sure you do
Theres your 45
Sc... do you have an updated chart on bitcoin ?Thanks
Yes, coming right up. Bitcoin may cool off a little here.
Gold is rippin i am looking for es to test 3280 to 3300 before rippin higher
sc now that we ran to 47.73 we might not get 37?
Short tvix 47.60
we got suckered again just like jan 31 selling our longs to early
Covered tvix 45.80
Shorted tvix 47.55
shorted tvix 48.30
There's no serious damage done yet to markets.
we missed that move up
Here in Italy, in the northern part, there are already many deaths from Coronavirus, nobody tells us the truth, the communist media are silent, want to maintain electoral visibility and deny the true situation about the epidemic. They allowed all types of non-EU immigration entry from Africa and we know that in Africa the Chinese are now very numerous, China has long since invaded Africa economically and with the boats from Libya thousands of AFricans have also arrived in Italy. Help us, talk about it on your sites is a request for help. https://www.liberoquotidiano.it/news/italia/13566608/coronavirus-italia-nuovo-record-contagi-europa-no-finita-altri-casi-in-arrivo.html?fbclid=IwAR2ZJk3DsoUm4hTubUmU02YhW715HJNjNApbyZ7hzi8S0L1OLs0ZjEuTwgY
Terrore della agenzia per la borsa italiana la Consob per un eventuale crollo della borsa domani all'apertura dei mercati..... https://www.milanofinanza.it/news/borsa-domani-consob-seguira-minuto-per-minuto-situazione-202002231608016939?fbclid=IwAR0EdnqH3mzlbL5jKJywfkPDXyORwT85DAJIVQUzZtDl6lxahnapb29VGxs
In Italy many northern countries have been isolated from the army, you can no longer enter or exit. Schools have been closed, theaters and cinemas and football stadiums have been closed. The Italian football championship will be played behind closed doors, without an audience. Just like in China, even in northern Italy only food supermarkets are now open, everything else is stopping. The crack of the world stock exchanges will not start from you Americans, Trump would prevent it for electoral reasons, but against the chaos that is being created in Italy with coronaviruses and with quarrels in government, Trump and Italy cannot do anything, as I already have explained, everything will flow into Europe creating a colossal black swan. Go low on SP500, get ready for a 2250 for the end of the year.
Thank you! Appreciate the info from Italy!!Yes, the panic is coming!
Ciao SC , ti ripeto, sarà dall'Italia che arriverà il cigno nero dei mercati mondiali, l'Italia credo abbia un segreto nascosto con la Russia. Putin vicino a Salvini. Putin deve far pagare all'Europa le misure antieconomiche decise per lui a causa della Crimea. Putin vuol far crollare l'Europa.
The Italian stock exchange on futures is collapsing. -745 points from 24750 to 24000 hours 2:35. I assure you that before June 2020 the world markets will suffer the black swan that has been expected for years. The 11-year bullish cycle sp500 has ended and will have to drop heavily. I believe that the 2009 stock market valuations are more than possible.
Don't you believe Louis? Best wishes to you then, I hope you will save yourself.
I know them all .... :-)
Bounce off 3280 then up
SC - S&P futures just gapped down 40 points from Friday's close...Is this a long entry for 3450 SPX?
SPX has already achieved it's measured move. Close enough already. It is still forming the high and will bounce soon to complete the formation. I won't go long at all. Best to wait for short entry.
The deaths per day has slowed in China. We have a window to work with 2 weeks for a bounce.
Common Sc: the deaths have not slowed.They are changing the way they count.They are lieing.The numbers are at least ten times what they are saying.Now they are forcing people back to work.This has pandemic written all over it.The elite care about the money not the people.I agree with Buck,this has grave potential.Futures down 700 as I type.
Leewa, thank you for your opinion
SC - should we wait for the gap to fill at 3338 SPX before shorting again?
I'll take a look at the numbers but yes best to wait for bounce at this point to reload short.
Economic impact of coronavirus will be clearer in ‘three or four weeks,’ Mnuchin saysFRIDAY THE 13th!
Today the Italian stock market has reached almost -5%, what did I tell you yesterday? I think it's just the beginning. IF you follow Italian events as if they were the oracle of your future, it is a piece of advice that I give you. You will thank me. Connect to the .IT media and you will know what could happen on the international markets. Good luck.
Siamo ormai al -6% sul MIB italiano e le notizie sul coronavirus e sul Governo vicino al fallimento, sono sempre più incalzanti. Dove sono i twitt di TRUMP? Che fa dorme o si è messo al ribasso anche lui?
Italy is a fly in bucket, its a dying economy that was due to pullback....the down move was setup weeks ago by MM's for rotation after opex....3092 will be lows...then back up for election theater.....
Shorting TVIX? Great idea!
Thank God I covered my TVIX short Friday I'm looking a short this piece of crack again I want the how Hi it's gonna go here
Vixen up 35%Uvxy which is suppose to be one and half times vixen movements up 20%What a scam man.....Ughhh
It's just getting warmed up. Give it some time...
once again we are under the last gamma of 3250.This time it should increase the selling pressure.
Attention to the key threshold for 10-year US Treasuries yields: if 10-year rates fall below this level, then fears about the return of a recession in the United States could materialize. And, unfortunately, things are not going exactly right, if we consider how the markets are reacting to the spread of the coronavirus beyond the borders of China, especially in Italy and South Korea.
they need to hold 3250 close.If not under 3200 tomorrow.
Spy 322.80 dont hold 316
Sc u still see all time high
It is still possible
24 VIX!!!SCFebruary 15, 2020 at 9:20 AM"Yes, the VIX rectangle chart continues to look good. The upper boundary is at 24 VIX. Let's say VIX 22 on the next run into March.Looking out further the 60 VIX is also likely to be hit."
Yes you were right we sold way 2 soon
Working towards $65!SCFebruary 11, 2020 at 8:19 AM"In about a week TVIX low and then a parabolic run to $65."
SPX probably bounce soon, but it looks like lower to February 28th. Month end low.
Are you buying tvix before feb. 28 or waiting for march 6th entry?
Es has 3 big red bars you might get 4 or 5 like august
gap at 2205 is going to get taken out, if MM's want cheap shares and rotate out of cyclical stocks tied to longer term virus and supply chain issues, this is the time they would like to do it, so the gap at 3090 could be in play....then off to 3450 again for elections....
No wayt Spx hits 2205 maybe 3090 on this move
3090 just in March, the decline will last into June and much lower.
Yeah but these guys outright make comments like the market's going straight down to 2020 you might hit 3090 But we will bounce Many times
Deve chiudersi il super ciclo decennale dal 2009, si chiuderà dentro il 2020 tra 2200 e 2300 di Sp500. lo stesso varrà per DAX e MIB.
louis, I meant 3205? first 3205, 2167 then 3090.....not much more than that and it could happen in 7-10 days...
enough with your guys comments, typing error, get over it....
margin calls will be coming
I short this piece of krapp TVIX on every mass of pop I'm already up 4 bucks on this piece of ship kits sit here and do nothing and just wait for a trade
SC- Are you buying this tvix dip this week or you waiting for march 6?
TVIX has hit the initial target of $65. VIX also hit 24 target. We do have to be a little cautious here now that we've seen the moment of recognition Everyone sees.Once TVIX hits this high expect about a 50% retracement. Around $52.I am open to a TVIX entry this week but only for trading.
I think end of February month end low.March 6th to March 13th is the next window I'm looking at for selloff. Then I have another timing in April.
This initial move for TVIX is parabola. Mathematically they are high energy but collapse. So my advice is if you are chasing use precautions.
Bigger moves in March and April.
Are you saying not to short this thing or not to buy this thing what do you mean by don't Chase it don't buy it
TVIX stumble tomorrow.
I never hold a short position overnight when the volatility is like this if this was a 100 would hold it
Nimble is good!
New chart posted!