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Thursday, October 11, 2018

$SPX - Deep Pullback Confirmed

The deep pullback scenario played out and price is approaching the main support.  The 2,750 deep pullback target was reached today.  An underthrow is possible though.


Upside is becoming quite attractive to the magical 3,000 SPX target, and we would expect that in approximately 6 months. 


The weak bull market continues with the main channel intact.


Daily Chart

101 comments:

  1. We have seen confirmation of the deep pullback which is great since it is the most profitable scenario!

    SCOctober 4, 2018 at 8:37 AM

    "Yes, that is correct. The difference is the size of the pullback. Shallow pullback to test white trendline or deep pullback to 2,750 main support."

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  2. Notice that the midfork was overthrown by 40 points. A 40 underthrow gives a price of 2,680 SPX. So possible we could see that figure on a capitulation.

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  3. There's 2,725!! Touching main support.

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    Replies
    1. SCOctober 11, 2018 at 8:38 AM

      The deep pullback target 2,750 has been reached!

      "Today the pink line is at approximately 2,725. A little more downside yet..."

      Delete
  4. Might add one more batch UPRO later. Waiting to take SVXY position.

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  5. Outrageous profitability! Crashes every 6 months!! The frequency is unprecedented. The golden age of trading!!!

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  6. Nice bounce off main support!!!

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  7. I bought a 44 spxl have a nice average cost hopefully we get it we get a bounce to 2850

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    Replies
    1. Like you, sold all longs at the top, just bought all back today

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    2. frank the shortterm charts were topping indicators were horrible i bought at 49 45 and 44 spxl good average

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  8. What, no whipsaw? This is too easy, buy the selloff. Will we at least test 200 day or test SC's 2680?

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    Replies
    1. We have seen a big bounce off main support.

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  9. looks like 2850 then down to lows again will see?

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  10. A retest of the low could come soon. Lower low possible in a few weeks.

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    Replies
    1. do you plan on selling your c heap stock or buying more

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    2. Yes I may look to exit and reenter.

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  11. Similarities to Jan 28 to Feb 15. I would not be surprised to see a big wick white candle tomorrow as
    seen on Feb 11

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  12. A lot of pressure on the markets every rallies being sold

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    Replies
    1. Yes need capitulation to form a bottom on this move in my opinion.

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  13. Halloween is coming after all

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  14. There's the Retest.

    SCOctober 18, 2018 at 8:04 AM

    "A retest of the low could come soon. Lower low possible in a few weeks."

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  15. SC: Is this a buy opportunity in your opinion ?I suppose yes!
    After this rebound can we see another minimum in the first days of November before up trend resume finally?

    many thanks..

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    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX is trading at main channel support. It may see a little lower on an underthrow before the uptrend resumes.

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  16. 2691 should be the bottom if it gets aggressive 2650 I'll be buying a monster position down there

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  17. Midterm elections are the next big event. November 6th. So there is a little time to work with here to form a low prior to the election.

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  18. The meltup to the 3,000 SPX target will likely kick off around November 6th.

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  19. The weekly SPX is not oversold yet.

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    Replies
    1. How deep do you think S&P goes by Nov 6th? thx

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    2. I estimated 2,680 based on a 40 point underthrow which is the same size as the 40 point overthrow of the mid channel.

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    3. SPX looking strong with a bounce off main support. Might see 2,785 with a final lower low to finish the decline.

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    4. the only thing that bothers me is the amount of days
      we are below the average

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    5. That is true on the daily but the bigger picture looks good. Weekly SPX and averages are extremely strong.

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  20. 2,680 reached!

    SCOctober 23, 2018 at 10:00 AM

    "I estimated 2,680 based on a 40 point underthrow which is the same size as the 40 point overthrow of the mid channel."

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  21. cut through like swiss cheese big rally common went long spxl 41.20

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  22. All in. Started buying below 2680, mostly techs. I'm also looking for a big bounce

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  23. 10% correction is 2646....could overthrow a bit

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  24. Bears are trapped for now. Resistance 2,785 SPX.

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  25. SC, given the recent action in the markets, do you still think there is chance for indices to get back to highs? Lot of technical damage has been done in very short time. thx

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the weekly chart is very strong, and pointing to further upside. The weekly is almost oversold. In the February decline it didn't get oversold at all. So yes, a rally to new highs is expected from oversold.

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    2. SPX is more oversold now than in February.

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  26. i believe a rip your face off rally is coming thats my opinion bought more spxl at 40

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  27. I won't be a bit surprised if we go up really quick into November

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  28. SC
    Are you looking to take a bigger position here or are you looking for a lower low? Or neither?
    Thank you for all of your great calls.
    Scott

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    Replies
    1. Yes, increasing. It's tough to catch a capitulation right at the bottom so the strategy is to space out the entries with some time. The daily chart is about to turn up so I think we are close. A bounce next looks likely. Lower lows are possible but the reward is becoming attractive.

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    2. Bounce next, maybe one more chance for a lower low afterwards? Timing is looking good for the end of this decline. Coming up to the midterms. I am confident it'll resolve to the upside.

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  29. Bought @ 2640 Lot´s of divergences, extreme sentiment, oversold conditions you name it. In my charts i had these price zones. Glad it worked out. Let´s rock.

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  30. Yes, continuing to build long positions, and increasing. The daily chart for SPX is a common one, and it is in a configuration to turn up very soon.

    My feeling is that a move is coming towards 2,750 next.

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  31. The economy is far stronger than people realize. I see it first hand. It is absolutely booming, big numbers are coming. I think we will see 6 to 8% GDP based on the volumes.

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  32. long spxl 39.50 i believe a very sharp rallly is coming tommorow
    just my opinion

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  33. The only ingredient left is that the weekly SPX is still not quite oversold. It's close...

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    Replies
    1. Sc what's your target spx to down side 2580?

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    2. All of my downside targets have been met. I think it is really close to a low. Right now we are testing the 2016 SPX trendline. It still looks good for a run to 3,000.

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    3. That's why I bought today I thought it was close to a low

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  34. sold 39 and 40 dollar spxl stock at 43.40 will buy back if we dip

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  35. Fibs approx. 2730, 2770, 2810.

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  36. This pop was showing on the daily. It has turned up, and probably see higher prices for a week or so next.

    SCOctober 27, 2018 at 8:47 AM

    "Yes, continuing to build long positions, and increasing. The daily chart for SPX is a common one, and it is in a configuration to turn up very soon.

    My feeling is that a move is coming towards 2,750 next."

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    Replies
    1. SC are you expecting a secondary dip to test the low again

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    2. Prices likely to move higher for a week or so. 2,750 is a given. 2,800 possible. Having said that I suspect a washout low mid November.

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    3. SC , this Washout low in mid november is a good point to add long position ? if we can see price lower 2700 i think so. Is target always 3000 around february 2019?

      many thanks !!

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    4. If the washout low occurs SPX would see one more lower low. Following, yes, new high. It would make a nice entry.

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  37. 2,750 SPX reached today. Spike up may come next.

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  38. Replies
    1. Yes, I've been waiting patiently for bitcoin to bottom. A capitulation is likely to occur soon, possibly later this month. I think we can see 5,500 or less.

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  39. Enjoying the spike up!

    SCNovember 1, 2018 at 8:50 AM

    "Prices likely to move higher for a week or so. 2,750 is a given. 2,800 possible."

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    Replies
    1. are you expecting another drop down and then up
      to 3000?

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    2. Yes, most likely. Later this month.

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  40. Short term resistance 2,790 SPX.
    Prices can cool off a little. Support 2,730. I think one more pop after. 2,830 possible. Then risk of the washout low later in the month.

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  41. Replies
    1. It's amazing how we missed uvxy on the move up and on the move down as well

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    2. It was disappointing, but volatility is expanding. Larger moves are coming...

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  42. SC: so now you are wait a temporary market top around 2830 in a few days and than a pull back or a washout low around end month and finally a big up rally to 3000.. It seems twisted but that's what I understand. is it right?
    Many thanks

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    Replies
    1. The daily and weekly are at odds with each other. Daily is pointing up and weekly is pointing down. Often this situation resolves with a washout.

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    2. SPX can settle back short term 2,750 and still move to 2,830. Yes, generally that is the idea.

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  43. SC do you have a chart for oil or know where the price is going?

    Thank you

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    Replies
    1. Short term oil is looking oversold and bounce soon, but the Saudis have problems to resolve which is keeping pressure on oil. For the next year oil is consolidating in the $45 to $80 range.

      The Saudi Aramco IPO was delayed quite simply, I think, waiting for higher oil prices. $150 or even $200 oil in 2020 would be attractive for the IPO!

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  44. SPX cooling off as anticipated.

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  45. SC 2750 now. Good call!! Now market should start a strong rebound towards 2830... right?

    Many thanks!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX is following the washout pattern.


      SPX has dropped into the 2,730 range as anticipated. The next level to watch is SPX 2,830 to 2,850.

      This is a "line in the sand". SPX needs to find support this week above 2,700 otherwise SPX will retest the low prior to the run to 2,850.

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    2. SPX sitting right on the pink line currently.

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  46. gap closure at 2682 might be in play here....penalize the folks for betting Blue......

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    Replies
    1. That's definitely a possibility because gaps always get filled that October 30th 31st Gap is going to get filled at some point the question is is it going to be now or is it going to be later

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  47. Replies
    1. SPX looks likely to hold above 2,700 this week. Therefore rebound.

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  48. Where will be washout take spx and when

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    Replies
    1. Let me update charts. Still probably weeks away.

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  49. Replies
    1. Bitcoin does look to have formed a low for now, and may see a nice bounce, but it's not a capitulation. Still expect lower prices eventually.

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  50. There is a resemblace between
    Oct 12 - 13 Mov 2017
    and
    March 25 - to now/later

    That would mean a test of the area Jul 17 - Sep 2 2017 1870-4956 usd

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  51. 5,500 bitcoin has been reached. Not capitulation yet. Bounce to 6,500 and down to 4,500.

    SCNovember 7, 2018 at 5:33 AM

    "Yes, I've been waiting patiently for bitcoin to bottom. A capitulation is likely to occur soon, possibly later this month. I think we can see 5,500 or less."

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  52. Replies
    1. SPX cooled as expected this week and is holding well. Nice example of an inverse head and shoulders for SPX.

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