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Monday, May 21, 2018

SPX - Breakout - Whipsaw Phase to Intensify

SPX found strong support as expected and has rallied up to test the white trendline identified in April. 

SPX is breaking out.  However, the whipsaw phase is about to intensify.    

SPX Daily

















Before:

April 2, 2018

"SPX is approaching long term channel support and testing the 50 weekly moving average at 2,565.  Expect a big bounce soon as least up to channel resistance as identified."

30min Chart















87 comments:

  1. SPX is going to be an exciting market in coming months. The whipsaws are becoming larger as this phase accelerates.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you SC - so SPX is clearly moving up to 2830 now. When does the second leg down begin?

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    2. At this point it's too early. Still in the whipsaw phase.

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    3. Ok interesting - I thought the second leg down was supposed to start soon? Is the whipsaw phase taking longer than expected?

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    4. I look at SVXY and SPX separately. The timing is different for each. For example one may reach a higher high while the other does not. The second leg down should start at a different time for each.

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    5. OK thank you SC - we are still looking for 2830 SPX this month for the next long UVXY trade?

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  2. i agree brother 2830 should come then down to 2600?
    complicated

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    Replies
    1. Yes, that is correct.

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    2. i guess we will wait for top and short

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  3. Meanwhile bitcoin trying to levitate to avoid the dreaded death cross. It's not going to be able to do it...

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  4. i will continue to buy big dips and then sell to mee looks like 2660 or 2830 ?

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  5. sc do you have turn date botton on june 1st?

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  6. SC - we are still looking for 2830 SPX soon?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, SPX run is coming! Second leg still months away.

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  7. 1 June Bradley Date is fast approaching...and RUT is currently at an All Time High...Coincidence? Hmmmm...perhaps the Majikal VooDoo correlation between Dr Bradly and small caps RUT will continue with an upcoming change in trend lower, perhaps lasting into August...then again, maybe not... but once again, it's now time to Be Careful!

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  8. The S&P could drop down to 2672 2700 after that I believe we move higher

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  9. sc is there any way you could show the top chart in a much longer version so i could see better

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  10. SPX is following the 2018 Model posted March 8th. The sideways move is almost over and another strong rally is coming for SPX to the next target of 2,830.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks SC! From 2830 SPX you think it will selloff again to 2600 for the next whipsaw?

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    2. Should only see a small pullback from 2,830 SPX, then run higher to terminate the rally.

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    3. Are you expecting new highs to terminate the rally SC or a lower high than 2873?

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    4. New highs for SPX. Still on track for 2,950 target. Other indices such as the DOW won't be able to make a higher high.

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  11. i bought the dip yesterday do you plan on buying upro or something else?

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    1. Yes, UPRO looks good with the sideways move ending and the UPRO split complete.

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    2. what price would you buy upro `or are you waiting for next week

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    3. Price looks attractive here for UPRO. Probably see $49 in a few days. Sideways move is almost over. Maybe a chance at $46 if there is a dip this month, but it is very close to breaking out to the next level.

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  12. Do you notice price action for the markets after all UPRO splits? tended to trickle down for a few weeks after the split: https://imgur.com/a/SyRSR0D

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  13. Sc are you expecting a small dip here I'm still long here from the bottom I've been buying spxl on every dip when do you plan on going long

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    Replies
    1. SPX should edge a little higher this week to around 2,760 then small pullback to 2,710.

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    2. SINCE WE HIT 2780 DO YOU THINK THAT SMALL FROP WILL BE 2720 NOW

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  14. Done!

    SCJune 1, 2018 at 8:15 AM

    "Price looks attractive here for UPRO. Probably see $49 in a few days."

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    Replies
    1. im still in looking to sell soon

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    2. Wonder if were going to 2800 SPX before pulling back a little?

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    3. SPX stall here and small pullback next.

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  15. RUT still making new all time highs while Dr Bradley's date has come and gone...Coincidence? Hmmmm...well, all models are wrong, some are useful. So, while the VooDoo Majik may be gone, SC's keen insight seems to be on target...but, always in motion the future is, so Be Careful!

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  16. SC,

    UVXY finally hit $10.

    Is now a decent entry price or $8 in the cards?

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    Replies
    1. At least I am starting to monitor UVXY again. Small pop is likely, but much too early for a big move.

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  17. seems like the bulls could push any button they want

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  18. is everybody alive lol bitcoin getting rocked

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    Replies
    1. yea scaling in some SPX shorts here 2785. Should pullback soon...

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    2. Doesn't seem like we are going to make it to 2830...might be too much resistance below 2800

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  19. We are seeing normal price action. Periods of high volatility, such as we saw in February, are followed by periods of low volatility.

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  20. Meanwhile bitcoin is testing support once again. However the bounces are getting smaller. It still needs to capitulate.

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    Replies
    1. Could you elaborate on that?

      At what price bitcoin is a buy in your view?

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  21. Sc it seems like the S&P is going up 16 days and dropping 16 days and drop it what is your Target by the 29th of this month on the S&P 500 or after July 5th

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  22. SVXY at 14 and at top of resistance - should pull back soon?

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  23. I think SPX made a low, Today.

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  24. Perfect!

    SCJune 1, 2018 at 8:15 AM

    Price looks attractive here for UPRO. Probably see $49 in a few days. Sideways move is almost over. Maybe a chance at $46 if there is a dip this month, but it is very close to breaking out to the next level."

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    Replies
    1. SC when do you plan on going long upro I've been trading the dips you could call

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    2. SC - are we en route or heading close to 2830 SPX?

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    3. Next run to 2,850 SPX.

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    4. sc are you expecting more weakness in the spx
      i bought the other days dip or are you expecting for spx to go up from here? im still expecting 3200 end of year

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    5. Just waiting for this dip to finish.

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  25. SC, what's your turn date? I have 6/26

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! I'm only getting clusters of minor turn dates right now.

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    2. Probably around the end of the month.

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  26. SC--A death cross is developing in gold (50 day moving under 200 day MA). Do you see gold <1000 and platinum <700 w/i the next 6 mos? Any thoughts on this as a final washout as happened in 2001? Much appreciated-J

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! The large scale model does show another leg down in the bear market which began in 2011. For the last several years gold and silver have consolidated sideways, but it still seems likely that the final leg down is coming, and it is one of the largest drops in the model.

      I think it could take a couple years to hit bottom at this pace.

      Yes the classic death cross indicates we are getting closer though may see some chop first or even a last gasp of rally before it finally sinks.

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    2. Sc you plan on buying this dip
      July bought more spxl 44

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  27. it wouldnt suprise me if we have a big move up from here

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  28. Beautiful! There's $46!

    SCJune 1, 2018 at 8:15 AM

    Price looks attractive here for UPRO. Probably see $49 in a few days. Sideways move is almost over. Maybe a chance at $46 if there is a dip this month, but it is very close to breaking out to the next level."

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    Replies
    1. Sc are you expecting drop in spx

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    2. SPX may retest 2,700 this week but it is forming a low. 2,830 next in July.

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  29. Done!

    June 4, 2018 at 11:41 AM

    "SPX should edge a little higher this week to around 2,760 then small pullback to 2,710."

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  30. Out spxl and UPRO waiting for sell off
    Will buy back spxl out at 45.44
    UPRO out 47.88

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  31. sc at what point are you going long this market 2680 2700?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, should drift a little lower, looking good.

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  32. scared money dont make money next pop up to 2730 and the down

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  33. Yup she probably grind lower into that date and then a pop into Sept 2850?

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