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Monday, April 2, 2018

$SPX - Channel Support and Resistance

SPX is approaching long term channel support and testing the 50 weekly moving average at 2,565.  Expect a big bounce soon as least up to channel resistance as identified.

30min Chart

131 comments:

  1. Well should have taken profits on Thursday except I was tied up with the long weekend. Oh well. I'll wait for the big bounce.

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  2. Is it Dr Bradley's VooDoo underway...or just another Coincidence? Hmmmm...Be Careful!

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  3. gbtc up as gxbt down bought more spxl 37.50

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  4. I think the $INDU wants the 50 WMA. . .and I think it wants it today.

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    1. That could be. SPX has tested it's 50 weekly at 2,565, but the DOW 50 weekly is a little lower at 23,100.

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  5. For the PapaBears of the world...if W1 ended at 2585-ish, and Friday was W2, then W3 could target 2330-ish, with a final W5 low around 2200-ish (bearish targets are complements of Brother Pretzel). And as mentioned, Dr Bradley's VooDoo dates indicate a significant low/turn around 1 June...Coincidence? Hmmmm...SP500 down 3% at this time, so Be Careful!

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    1. Wrong counts from this brother, corrective moves lower and 40 week cycle low. April and May are higher.

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    2. I agree krasi april may higher

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    3. Always in motion the future is...and the battle between bull and bear continues...but thank you for your insightful thoughts...the truth will be revealed in due time, until then...Be Careful!

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  6. im prepared to go ballistic at bottom

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  7. it wouldnt suprise me too see 2700 by fri mon

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  8. $11 SVXY has been reached today, and was up last week!

    SCMarch 20, 2018 at 10:46 AM

    "I think it may be possible for SVXY to test around $11. The weekly is starting to curl up though. If we are down this week we will see 3 weeks up next."

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    1. good call next target 13 spx 2700 still in play
      your thoughts

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    2. SC - are we expecting 1 or 2 round trips between 2800 and 2600 during this whipsaw phase before the next leg down occurs?

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    3. SC - are you thinking we could still hit 13s on SVXY next week?

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  9. 2489

    Be Careful March 28, 2018 at 6:38 AM
    S&P 2519.36 will happen soon.

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  10. 2528, 2519, 2489. All will happen. Some before April 13.

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    1. i doubt it but if it happens i will buy a boat load

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  11. that was probally the bottom till june

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  12. sc your back up whats your thoughts on upro

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  13. Gosh damn. Squeeze. 2675, 2692, 2711, 2725. So much work ahead.

    Be Careful April 4, 2018 at 6:52 AM
    2528, 2519, 2489. All will happen. Some before April 13.

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    1. I agree with your 2489 number but not now sometime the end of May June that's what I believe

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  14. sc thoughts on upro still 150 thanks

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  15. out of spxl 37 and 38 stock out at 42.34 still have large position

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    1. Always good to take some profits in a choppy market. Nice to have some cash to take advantage of opportunities along the way.

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  16. SPX nice reaction to the 50 weekly and channel support as identified!

    SPX may reach as high as 2,925 on this move. Expect a couple pullbacks on the way. The first around 2,700 from the resistance as shown on the chart. The second in the 2800's.

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    1. That's awesome I got 20 thousand shares of spxl average 4 0 and I still have my U pro that I bought thanks for all your help much appreciated that will be fun if we could get 29 00 on this move

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    2. UPRO target $165 but there will be pullbacks along the way probably from around $137 to $143, $150.

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    3. Nice, will buy 8000 shares more UPRO tomorrow.

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  17. Nothing quite like the certainty of uncertainty...coincidence? Hmmmm....well, if you're still uncertain due to the ongoing uncertainty, you're certainly welcome to consider this... www.pretzelcharts.com ...for certain, always in motion the future is, so certainly Be Careful!

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  18. Seems like another wave down to 2525-2565 before the rally to 2800. Now I see why SC called this the whipsaw phase. Totally wild!!

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  19. Market has spoken! Strong reaction to the 50 weekly and channel support. Up until April 17.

    SCApril 5, 2018 at 12:38 PM

    "SPX nice reaction to the 50 weekly and channel support as identified!"

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  20. sc you are expecting 2700 area by april 17th then a dip and then 2800 is that correct thanks

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  21. SC - gold seems like it could be a good long-term short soon somewhere between 1375-1400? Might be close to making its final highs in the next week or so?

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    1. You want to be careful about shorting gold if this starts going north in a significant way.

      http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BGEIX%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=t51927868715&r=1518688120012

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    2. Gold topping, bitcoin bottoming. Inversely correlated.

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  22. RUT daily chart shows a H&S...and the right shoulder is peaking...Coincidence? Hmmmm...perhaps bank earnings will save the day, then again, maybe it's time to Be Careful!

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  23. Strong week. Notice SVXY really perking up.

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  24. sc do you plan on selling on april 17th your thoughts

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    1. We are testing near the 2,700 SPX resistance on the chart and timing April 17th due for at least some consolidation soon or possible pullback.

      I plan to take some profits and watch how things shape up next.

      SCApril 10, 2018 at 9:02 AM

      "Market has spoken! Strong reaction to the 50 weekly and channel support. Up until April 17."

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  25. OpEx week, H&S on RUT daily chart, and a potential turn by 17 April...Coincidence? Hmmmm...bearish OpEx weeks have become rare events, but if the H&S pattern plays out in the next few days, then it's time to Be Careful!

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  26. We'll see what happens next. Protecting profits. Concerned bitcoin capitulation may occur soon.

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    1. SC - I take it possible bitcoin capitulation could impact SPX as well?

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    2. Bitcoin capitulation could drag down SPX short term. SVXY may washout if it happens.

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  27. There is a possibility that we could get smaked down here
    2600 ? sc your thoughts

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    1. It is possible. I'm going to sit back and review some charts.

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  28. OpEx week and another rally...Coincidence? Hmmmm...nothing to see here folks, move along, move along. RUT H&S is now null & void...but 17-18 April may become the high...so, Be Careful!

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  29. sc your thoughts on spxs at this point looks like markets topping or spxu opposite upro thanks

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  30. SC,

    Is 14 a good place to add UVXY? Or are you still waiting for $10?

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  31. Any updated charts on where we are headed?

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    1. I'll post an update soon. Just waiting to see a little more price action. So far so good.

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  32. SPX has reached the initial target identified on the chart. I'm just watching here for now.

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  33. i will be going long after we hit 2640 50 area and then we should move up to 2750

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  34. sc what level would you go long spx for a big move into end of month your thoughts and thanx

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  35. anybody going long at the bottom 2650 area

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  36. I'll wait and see how things look Monday.

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  37. Not expecting much to happen this week. SPX looks to be forming a sideways move. 2,670 to 2,700 For the next 1 to 2 weeks most likely.

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  38. it would not suprise me to see a massive rally this week

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  39. big rally coming in my opinion bought spxl at 41 80

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  40. Hey fella,

    On your previous post, "Bitcoin capitulation", have you changed your view?
    Basically you think that Bitcoin should make fresh highs this year?

    Cheers,

    Bobo Valentino

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    1. On my bitcoin chart bitcoin bounced at the midfork and now is nearing the upper fork resistance.

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    2. Cheers SC,

      Could you elaborate on that?

      Or your crystal ball is cloudy at this stage?

      What is your target price at the end of the year?

      Best

      Boby

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  41. The 17-18 April HIGH remains...Coincidence? Hmmmm...and LL remains a reliable contrarian indicator...time to Be Careful! (just kidding LL - trade safe!)

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  42. SVXY support has risen a little. $11.40.

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    1. Support $11 previously.

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    2. Seems like SVXY could wash out here...

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  43. Replies
    1. better wait for SC, don't have to be in the market all the time

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  44. Was a GREAT day for uvxy...Coincidence? Hmmmm...NOPE! Trade safe...and Be Careful!

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  45. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  46. big rally coming to 2700 in my opinion

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  47. 2580 is base of descending triangle. The Bradley magic voodoo chart I'm watching says no bull until June
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSxUIY6XcAA7Xqs.jpg

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  48. Replies
    1. is that a top or a bottom in your opinion

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  49. Expecting a low but not much lower. SVXY I'm interested $11.40. UPRO as well.

    Because cycles are up since February I've been focussing on long trades. Cycles still up into May overall.

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  50. Interestingly, SP500 is still moving lower...as originally guessed starting way back with that crazy Bradley VooDoo majikal date of 29 Jan...Coincidence? Hmmmm...and then there's uvxy...the gift that just keeps on giving...assuming one can stomach the ride. Near-term target is likely lower...perhaps 2595-ish today...then again, maybe it's a big rally to 2700...well, whatever you believe, please...Be Careful!

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  51. Replies
    1. there you go being that contrarian indicator again...Coincidence? ;-)
      Hmmmm...standing aside for now...best to Be Careful!

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  52. what concerns me was april 2 april 3 april 4 setup looks like we could drop one more time before move up also was the tuesday turndate that sc was talkin about

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  53. SP500 bounces at 200-day, perhaps with help from ECB announcement, Korean Peace deal, and upcoming 1-2 May FOMC meetings...Coincidence? Hmmmm...GDP today could potentially cause a small pullback, but higher into FOMC meetings has been the pattern for many-many-many months, so Be Careful!

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  54. SC, any update on the chart? Thank you.

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  55. sc is may 1st still looking like a bottom and what would be your entry for upro again and thanx

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  56. SC - do you think we are just going to whipsaw in this 100ish point SPX range until May 11th and then we'll start the 2nd leg down?

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    1. SC - do you think we could see 2800 by May 11th?

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    2. So far SPX hasn't performed well but let's see.

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  57. anybody going long? looks to me that we go up into mid month
    apple earnings after bell

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    1. with possible 3rd wave down next, I would rather wait for SC, don't want to be hit by a train

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  58. Replies
    1. Sc do you think we will see UVXY at 12 by the end of next week or have we begun the second leg down now?

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    2. UVXY still likely to come down.

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    3. if that happens market will rip higher
      i bought upro at 124 do you think theres another low coming

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    4. SC - UVXY back to 12 would equate to about 2800 SPX?

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    5. SC - in a previous post you mentioned SPX up into end of this week, then should be down next 4 weeks into June once the whipsaw phase is complete - is that still the case? If so what are your thoughts. Up to say 2800 then down to 2300?

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    6. It may be early yet but the whipsaw phase is in the finishing stage. Some parts of the whipsaw phase have taken longer than I thought. I'm doing a review and will post an update soon.

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    7. Thanks SC - I assume you are waiting on UVXY to dip to 12 before going long?

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    8. Yes, that is the plan.

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    9. Thanks - looks like we are on our way to 2775-2800 SPX, which should provide us with UVXY at 12 and should be a great entry for the second leg down...

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  59. The range is tightening which is one of my least favorite configurations to trade. A lot of chop.

    Because we are approaching the big negative cycle I am becoming increasingly cautious. My focus will shift towards shorting in May and June.

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    1. SPX is very weak...can't even muster to get to 2700 hmm...

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    1. yes but after it gets slapped in the jaw 3000 to 3200 year end

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  61. i wouldn't be surprised if that was the bottom today looking for over 2700 buy may 15

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    1. contrarian indicator again? timing has been impeccable lately ;-)

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    2. im just trading but we held 200 day moving average
      like 7 times we should go up after monday i believe a short term bottom into the 15th to 16th top we will see and sc thinks 12 on uvxy so thats bullish to me right now.

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    3. yes Whipsaw City, see if they try to use the IHS to breakout

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    4. In my opinion we had 2700 to 2720 by May 15th and then slap down with a June bottom possibly 2580 to 2625 and then up to 3200 by year end just saying

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  62. looks to me 2730 and then down possibly 2620buy end may 20

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