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Thursday, March 8, 2018

SPX - Calm Seas and Smooth Sailing Ahead

SPX has likely completed the volatile first leg down, and calmer markets are ahead in March and April.   

The SPX model shows a slow and steady grind up next.  Dips should be relatively minor as the model predicts a relentless grind higher.  The next several weeks look relatively flat as SPX builds a solid base.

60min Chart

















SPX 2018 Model:















82 comments:

  1. More charts are coming soon. It was important to post this model first to explain. The market is highly correlated to this model.

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  2. Is the selling point of svxy higher than $15 now or is $15 the first selling point on the way up?

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    1. $15 target may be at or near an important high.

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  3. So, no 2900 this month, now in May?

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    1. Probably not. Originally it seemed a spike up may be possible, but it appears a slow grind up may be more likely.

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    2. Thanks SC, so low volatility is probably the play

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    3. Yes it's an ideal setup for low volatility coming off a volatile month and with "bad news" marking the bottom.

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  4. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=D&st=1928-10-01&en=1929-12-31&i=t73348150623&r=1520585896629

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  5. Very nice!

    SCMarch 2, 2018 at 6:11 AM

    "Planning to add to positions this morning. VIX doing nothing. A measure I have is the highest that I have ever seen it. Bullish."

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  6. I may book some profits. I'm thinking of exiting a third of my positions. By this model the upside looks thin for the next 10 days or so anyway. I don't expect it to come down much though.

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  7. Sold one third UPRO at $150.

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  8. Well played, SC!
    What are the odds...a HIGH on Bradley's 9 March date...Coincidence? Hmmmm.... Given the VooDoo, we could potentially see a choppy to lower OpEx into the next major turn date of 21 March. The Government shutdown is still in play until the 23 March vote, so Be Careful!

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    1. Thanks! You too. Those dates are hitting beautifully!!

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  9. Sold one third SVXY at $12.85.

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  10. Today's SP500 target may be 2780 by day's end...which is close-enough-for-Government-work close to the originally guessed 2800-ish. VIX is dropping...but nothing is ever guaranteed, so...Be Careful!

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  11. sc when u say upro might be sodt we are talking how many points 3 to 4 points? i sold my spxl im still long upro

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    1. Dips likely to be minor during the run-up.

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  12. Nice and steady. Smooth sailing haha!

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    1. SC your Feb 1 chart shows the second leg down happens in April, but the latest chart shows an uptrend in April.
      Would you please clarify which is which.

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  13. I think the pattern for the top is ending diagonal and your post from 8-th February nails it. I do not think it is smooth sailing and grinding higher for months.

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  14. Bradley VooDoo to ponder...9 March was clearly a HIGH as predicted well in advance by...uh, Dr Bradley. The next FOMC meeting is 20-21 March...and the next significant Bradley Date is 21 March...Coincidence? Hmmmm....the setup indicates a potential low, so Be Careful!

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  15. Yes, there is the question of timing. Typically the rallies take longer than one would expect. Will the rally be a quick spike or slow grind up? We will have confirmation soon enough. So let's see as things progress.

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  16. it would not suprise me to see market spike up here

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  17. Two lower closes since 9 March Bradley Date turn...Coincidence? Hmmmm...looking like W4 down is underway, so...Be Careful!

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  18. SPX has filled it's gap today and basically trading at its 50 dma.

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  19. Always in motion the future is...all models are wrong, some are useful...and the following is just a guess. Using RUT daily chart (since it's a little less manipulated than SP500) it appears that W4 down is underway in the form of an ABC...today's OpEx induced bounce is B, that should be followed by C into a 20/21 March low. If Bradley's VooDoo continues, 20/21 March will mark the W4 low, which will be followed by W5 to higher highs into month's end. As previously mentioned, 20/21 March is also the FOMC meeting, and 23 March is the next Govt Shutdown vote...Coincidence? Hmmmm...play at your own risk, and Be Careful!

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  20. it would not suprise me to see a rally into friday

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  21. SC, does the 'smooth sailing' prediction come with a life jacket? ;-)

    Just a guess, but the low may likely occur tomorrow at the latest, with a nice bounce perhaps fully underway by 21 March...Coincidence? Hmmmm...today will likely end on the day's low, so Be Careful!

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    1. Haha. Glad I took profits on a third position.

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    2. You should have sold it all LOL what are you talk it's now 4 the S&P 500 still 2900 or now that's reverted to a less position like 2850

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    3. I still think we'll test close to 3,000. However, for now we are seeing whipsaws. 2825 to 2850 SPX is a resistance to watch.

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    4. what is your time line on 2825 your thoughts and thanx

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  22. Wonder if this is the second leg down now in the previous model?

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  23. Price cooling off here and that is fine. I expect we are still in a trading range. These are whipsaws.

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  24. Frankly I welcome volatility. It's profitable.

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  25. This looks like the second leg down in the previous model. I wonder why no one is paying attention to it. Volatility will stay till June this year thanks to Mr. Trump. Watch out near the end of March and April.

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    1. Yes - I see it too. Could be a doozy if the previous model is correct. 2100-2400 into end of June.

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    2. trust me where paying attention

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  26. i believe s and p will spike up 40 points this week

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  27. Decided to protect profits.

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    1. SC if we are about to enter the second leg down in the previous model - where would that take SPX to - 2100?

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    2. I think it may be possible for SVXY to test around $11. The weekly is starting to curl up though. If we are down this week we will see 3 weeks up next.

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    3. I know you're around to protect your profits you think there's a big drop down coming in the market what are your thoughts

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    4. It doesn't make sense to me to sell something at 12 because you're going to go to 11 is it going to 11 I'll buy 50000 shares of it 11

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    5. At this time all I am doing is trading the whipsaws up and down. SVXY is a trading range $11 to $13 for now. I don't see a big drop coming until most likely May into June.

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    6. Rob, it's early. I'm reviewing and let's see how things shape up next.

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    7. Ok for now SC - you're looking for 2850 SPX?

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    8. There is some resistance 2,850 SPX. More at 2,900.

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  28. One step at a time. Sometimes cash is king.

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  29. In my opinion i think we pop up here

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  30. sc do you plan on getting back in ?

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  31. RUT is rising, VIX is dropping, Spring is arriving, snow is falling on the White House...and yup, it's 21 March...Dr Bradley's day...Coincidence? Hmmmm....market could possibly rally into 26-27 March, maybe completing W5 up...but since these silly coincidences are all based on VooDoo Majik, Be Careful!

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  32. It does look like the market is starting to thaw. I've been approaching cautiously but there are encouraging signs. Today SVXY is showing relative straight compared to SPX. It may be leading up.

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  33. It looks to me like we're going higher

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  34. The trading range is well established now. I'll be looking for an entry SVXY $11 for the next run to $13. I expect it'll trade in this range until May.

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  35. Down this week and up for 3 weeks next.

    SCMarch 20, 2018 at 10:46 AM

    "I think it may be possible for SVXY to test around $11. The weekly is starting to curl up though. If we are down this week we will see 3 weeks up next."

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  36. I'll be looking to enter long tomorrow.

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  37. Replies
    1. Just for fun lol. Might see $20.

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    2. I'll be interested in UVXY in April, especially May.

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  38. Huston, we may have a problem...not exactly 'Smooth Sailing' and not exactly the anticipated Dr Bradley rally...Coincidence? Hmmmm...RUT is still holding up relatively well, but Congress is still negotiating...and since all models are wrong and only some are useful, please Be Careful!

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  39. big rally coming after this decline mark my words

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  40. We hit a rogue wave haha. Nothing calm about this week, but smooth sailing starting next week.

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    1. SC have to say this is kind of starting to look like the second leg down in the previous model...which we did think would start in March...

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    2. 2460 is where the big boys are taking this.....

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  41. It is coming. Second leg down May into June. Whipsaws first.

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    1. Unless this reverses soon, appears to be second leg down right now. Could take another two months to bottom.

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