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Thursday, February 8, 2018

$SPX - Rollercoaster Ride to Continue - Massive Rally Approaching

SPX plunged off major resistance this week.  However, the channel is intact, and still mildly bullish.  A new slightly higher high is likely to materialize according to the model.  

The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.   

Daily Chart















85 comments:

  1. The low is in but SPX should decline a little to 2,625 to 2,650.

    Get ready for a big bounce!

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    1. SC - any chance we could get a lower low to 2550 before we begin the ascent to 2900?

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    2. Not expecting a lower low.

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  2. SPX reverted to the mean, UVXY also reverted to the mean.

    XIV was just mean.

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  3. VIX elephant trader took some profits.

    "A mystery trader just made millions off the US stock market meltdown.

    The so-called “VIX Elephant” has a wager on a large increase in the CBOE Volatility Index, which serves as the stock market’s “fear gauge”.

    The index soared overnight to a reading of 37, more than doubling.

    The bet is expected to pay out as much as $US262.5 million — if everything goes according to plan."

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  4. Getting ready to take long position in SPX. Plan to use UPRO around $132. Target $165 next week.

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    1. i have anything cheaper then that or what about shorting volatility

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    2. what about shorting spxu when upro hits 132

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    3. SC is the SPX target for next week around 2800?

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    4. SPX could see as high as 2,900 next week.

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    5. With the drop yesterday, do you still think 2900 is possible just in 5 trading days? What could be the catalyst? Thx

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  5. UVXY resistance around $23. Big plunge next week to around $9.

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  6. There's 2,650 SPX!

    SCFebruary 8, 2018 at 6:08 AM

    "The low is in but SPX should decline a little to 2,625 to 2,650"

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    Replies
    1. Wondering if we hit 2550 first today/tmr then rally hard next week?

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  7. Always leave the last cookie in the cookie jar.

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  8. Shorting VXX or UVXY here with VIX at -20% backwardation is asking to get your head cut off imo. They might plunge like Tuesday afternoon but then coming roaring back.

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    1. i buy big blocks but they dont let me short more then 2000 sharesi will be a buyer of upro or s and p
      still waiting thou

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  9. SPX may still come down a little but I notice VIX is quite calm today. So I see enough reason to take position.

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  10. 2,625 SPX has been reached!!

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    1. SC wouldn't it make sense to Short uvxy down to $9 verse buying something at 133 to go to 160 your thoughts is backwardation a problem you feel uvxy could pop up I don't understand thanks for all your help appreciate

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    2. Shorting directly is a more complex trade. I am expecting UVXY to fall next.

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    3. There are so many different ways to do things. Etfs, futures, options, shorting. They all have advantages and disadvantages.

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  11. SPX holding very well, looking excellent. Would not be surprising to see a big green candle tomorrow...

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  12. VIX has plummeted 15 from Tuesday. Watch out bears!

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    Replies
    1. Might see 2500-250 tmr before the big rally. Either way it will rally soon...

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  13. Gap closed 2580. Wondering why it didn't close yesterday. Next gap at 2470?

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  14. I am concerned about the malaise of this correction. Ohh, it's just a correction, everything will be ok. The break from the upper channel was broken around 2470. The 200 day is at 2538. Geez, if a correction can not even test the 200 day? 2470 is very possible in my opinion.

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  15. 2507 is the ultimate low 6090 on nasdaq that couild happen
    and wouldnt suprise me

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  16. Stopping out of UPRO. SPX closed under the mid channel support yesterday. Daily SPX chart not even oversold yet.

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  17. Hmmm... Gartman just added to his shorts. Perhaps a bottom is near lol!

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  18. Let's see what happens. Either it recovers above the mid channel or it doesn't.

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    Replies
    1. i believe the low will be hit next week maybe monday or tuesday we will see

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  19. If SPX falls again today it'll drop 100 more next week.

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  20. There is a gap from September 8th 2017 the September 11th 2017 if we break the 200-day moving average of 2538 we will hit that which is 2468 to 2470

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  21. We may still rally hard next week SC...sentiment will be uber bearish now...

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  22. Just made day trade lol. Bought UVXY at $26.65 and sold at $27.50.

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    Replies
    1. Actually made more in 2 minutes than the UPRO loss haha.

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    2. That little U pro lost doesn't even bother me we made so much money anyways I'm waiting for the next big entry

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    3. They're probably closed this market right on the 200-day moving average and on Monday rip it to the upside LOL

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    4. It was a great week. This market is really fun...

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  23. SPX bounced from around 2540, could retest today.

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  24. SPX likely heading towards the lower channel support. I'll look at a long SPX probably later next week.

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    Replies
    1. What later next week? At this rate we will be below 2400..haha..is that what you are looking now?

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  25. It would not surprise me to see SPX down 3 more days in a row next.

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    Replies
    1. nice reversal into the close...perhaps we will see 2800-2850 next week...

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  26. I'll remain in cash for now.

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  27. Dangerous market. The knife is double sided for the bulls and bears.

    We are in the middle of the range.

    As shiny as the apple is on top of the tree I'll wait for the low hanging fruit.

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    Replies
    1. We really miss those low-hanging fruit LOL

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  28. Looks like quite a reversal today, let's see if it holds next week or even by close today.

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  29. Government extended until 23 March...key Bradley Date 21 March. Coincidence? Hmmmm...
    Still pondering if 20 Feb will be a high or a low...but it's OpEx week, so Be Careful!

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  30. Market recovered on Friday. Here comes the bull stampede! Back up to test the high SPX 2,875.

    I expect SPX to rally and flatten off this week. Calm week then SPX spike next week.

    I'm avoiding UVXY entirely. Don't touch. Chart update is coming.

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    Replies
    1. i tried shorting uvxy tvix and vxx they wont let me

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  31. Replies
    1. UPRO target $160 next week.

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    2. Seems like we will make a lower high on SPX towards 2775-2800 and then plunge to final lows around 2400s

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    3. thats a possibility thats why you cant go all in i trade spxl if upro hits 160 spxl will go up 15 bucks

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  32. SC where do you VIX this week? and how low can UVXY go? thx

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    1. VIX 20 this week then 12 to 15. UVXY $5 orange support.

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  33. UVXY up 4 weeks. UVXY down 3 weeks next.

    UVXY is at $22 and about to get cut by the double sided knife. $5 support..

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  34. Anything changed for you on silver lately?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Silver peaked in 2016 and should continue lower for a few years. Still quite bearish.

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  35. SPX doing exactly what it should. It has stabilized with a nice tight range. It'll be very quiet this week which is normal after a volatile week. Spike up next week very strongly.

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  36. Some say we will retest 200 day. I would like to see a big red candle closing at that level. Not sure if that will happen. On the upside, Larry Berman says 2725 break is an up market.

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    Replies
    1. SPX likely making a high. Dip looks possible to 2,625 next 3 or 4 days. Big spike to 2,875 next week.

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    2. SC is the final top in the model or do you see other new highs in the future above 3000?

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    3. The big picture is that this is the top forming. No higher highs this year.

      In future years we can see higher tops.

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    4. Ok..2873 SPX was the top before the crash...are we expecting a double top to form next week?

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  37. There was a choice. I could have rode out the dip but decide to book the profit.

    Will look for another long entry SPX soon.

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    Replies
    1. I will not short. In cash here.

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    2. SC, is there a change SPX tests 2700 resistance before reversing. Long weekend coming up which usually has an upward bias. Thx

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  38. A little stronger than I thought but she's trying to dip...

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    1. We may see SPX 2450 next week if the correction isn't over...

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