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Monday, April 4, 2011

$SPX - Big Picture - "Unwinding the Great Bull Market"

The cycles are important in my work.  When looking at the big picture, my theory is that the market should "unwind" in a similar pattern that it went up during the "Great Bull Market" over the last century. 

The following charts show a pattern of how this "unwinding" may now start to occur.  As shown in the yellow boxes of the first chart, the cycle may be indicating a "Freefall" to the target at 1206 SPX next (as previously calculated).  I have also proposed a triple bottom for SPX as a result of similar patterns in several cycles that I am monitoring. 

Following this "Freefall" and triple bottom, I have suggested a strong rally up to 1352 SPX.  According to the pattern in the lower chart, this may be the final top prior to commencement of a multi-year bear market.  Let's call this the "Great Bear Market".    

2-Hour Chart






In the following chart my analysis suggests we are currently at the equivalent of the 2007 top.  The market is about to decline to the triple bottom proposed 1206 SPX target by trading down from the Right of the chart towards the Left in a similar pattern.  The triple bottom would be point C on the above 2-Hour Chart. 


7-Day Chart

57 comments:

  1. If i look at that 7 day chart I see a massive invs head and shoulder forming.

    Interesting work and food for thought, we will need to sell of right now for it to play out. At what point is it void? 1350?

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  2. What do you mean cycle? And how you descripe it?

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  3. Your 1352 fits pretty good with Charles Nenner - he got major long at SPX 700 with target of 1356 SPX - after this move is reached he sees DOW at 5000 by end of 2012 - who knows ???

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  4. I'm also short markets right now big at 1333-1330 and holding - hopefully we get our decline , but if we wont move below 1300 this week - then it might be a sign to get out and long markets - according to your time line we should also see below 1300 or so end of this week ,,

    On Thursday we have ECB rate hike comming ( which is expected and priced in now ) do we sell off from there ?

    On Friday we have US debt limit again , do they find a plan with US debt ?

    But imho the biggest event is this thursday with the ECB rate hike ( which MAY signal weaker euro , higher USD which means most likely lower markets )...

    But who knows nothing is for sure and I'm not very confident shorting a lot here - but as long 1333 on ES is holding I'm short. Remember the ES did not break 1333-1334 but SPX did.

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  5. There are many matches in multiple cycles that are adding up so that gives me confidence. Ultimately the market is boss so we wait and see.

    ckorey, 1340 is important, and I wouldn't want to see anything over the Feb high 1345.

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  6. Sqwii,

    I'm heavily short as well. Looking for a big play here.

    Some more food for thought. The big picture chart above predicts a "green Monday" Oct 87 style rally -massive spike up (during a long bear market)...

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  7. SC time will tell , very choppy and boring action for now - someone loaded big april 15 puts yesterday and aggresive on SPY - so time will tell , Goldman Sachs must have read your blog ;-)

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  8. Maybe it was Goldman who sold the puts...

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  9. hehe I saw that too .. 245,000 april 15th 1330 puts.

    LOL I thought maybe that was SC loading up the truck hehe :)

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  10. Lol. I really think we should tag 1340 SPX here, and then see if the bears take over control.

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  11. nice downtick after FED minutes right now

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  12. will you cut your losses if the market keeps going up SC? Would you consider going long even if it is for a short period of time? Thanks.

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  13. At this point I am fine with the mkt action. No reason to look at it differently at this time.

    If the mkt did prove my theory incorrect, then yes I would cut the shorts. I would have to review carefully to consider a long position. 2 weeks ago was time to be long - I don't see reasons to be long here at all.

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  14. I will take positions on either side of the mkt long or short provided I have done the analysis backing that position.

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  15. SC we got close to your 1340 - maybe top ? But at least hope you dont revise it up up and up ;-)

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  16. No definitely no revisions to 1340. It's important a number of ways.

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  17. I think we turned today - today confirmed the move down with the MACD histogram getting lower on SPY.

    Look at SPX or SPY then you see its getting lower since 30th March , så a top should be in now.

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  18. No sell signal yet........still looks like 1350ish.

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  19. Well...to get anything real exciting going on the downside we're going to have to get an S&P close below 1330. And then a lower close the next day.And so on.We're at 1332 today,so that trend "needs" to start tmrw. The VIX is not cooperating yet either.Down again in the 17's. Ouch! And every day there is a "hot" sector that kind of holds things together in general. Today it was the metal and mining stocks.Lots of sector rotation going on too,which really isn't helpful at all getting the indexes down much.-I'd say tmrw is key for getting a downtrend going,and breaking some support levels. We'll see.

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  20. It seems like every time the markets dip into the red like at the end of the day, the fed pumps money into the markets to push them into the green or as close to even as possible.

    This will have to end to even have a pullback.

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  21. You guys are trying to pick a top without confirmation.

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  22. Also-Nenner does not say 1352 now he says could go to 1400.

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  23. Yes, hit, now let's see. I like the first reaction.

    One fact standing out is the weak performance of financials Rifin. Financials have been much weaker than SPX since the March 16th bottom. Also, rifin has lower highs since April 1st contrasting SPX. It appears that financials are already leading down.

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  24. SC looks good for now - time will tell , but this may be the reversal also with tomorrow biggest event = ECB RATE HIKE , already priced in I guess ???

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  25. they are trying their darnest to keep it out of the red. markets are so rigged. look at the TSX, it is in the red and primarily commodity driven. It is allowed to pullback even with commodities making new highs. south of the border...totally different story

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  26. Thanks Nicky. My opinion is that the cycles always overwhelm with time anyways despite games that are played.

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  27. Copper very strong today.........not in keeping with a sell off.

    All my indicators still long.

    Let's see how they close.

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  28. Well,another day where you get an intraday pullback,but no follow through ,and end up with the DJIA and the S&P higher. VIX is also now below 17 and the dollar is still falling.Not a good equation for getting any meaningful sell-off in the market.

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  29. Maybe, just maybe a pull back to 1315ish.

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  30. If SPX breaks the recent highs of 1344 I am going to take the loss on my shorts at 1333 - if we break the highs I think we will see 1420 SPX sometimes this summer..

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  31. How are you feeling this morniing SC?

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  32. Good thanks! Watching financials closely. They should signal the turn first. Financials have been weaker than S&P since early March, and are not "agreeing" with this rally.

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  33. I see a triangle here which should take it to just shy of 1350. Next week is opex, don't think we get a pullback before then.

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  34. That being said my indicators are starting to weaken.

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  35. http://www.ellipsetrading.com/?p=163

    Closed the short when index touched the average. Leaved my VIX long in place.
    If they do not crack now , tomorrow i'll make my blog reading $200/month subscription :)

    (just kidding , obviously. Sometimes a little luck simply happens)

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  36. I'm going to keep an open mind for the possibility of a correction to still happen for roughly 2 weeks from today.That is of course, providing we're not 800 pts lower by next week. Anyway,I want to get through OpEX and through the first week of the next options period...and then make more of a "biased" opinion.that is unless I have to get biased much,much sooner. There are some mixed signal here,as well as a few news items that could also create some problems.Most times news does not matter...but sometimes it does. The 2001 correction was because of the "9/11" disaster,and nothing else.Anyway,we'll have to see if we can get a close below 1330 for starters. It might even happen today. We'll see.

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  37. That may be all the pullback we see.

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  38. seen this act before. markets dip in the morning or midday. gets the bears excited, then the bulls reload and push the markets higher. deja-vu?

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  39. The way I see it that was likely the first warning "shot over the bow" this morning. Financials $rifin are showing some weakness today hovering just over the lows of the day with a lower low on the last dip.

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  40. Looks like consolidation now before a move to 1420 with maybe good earnings comming next week ?

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  41. I wonder if Japan didn't have another earthquake and tsunami warning that the markets would have finished in the green. The dip in the day came right after there was news about the eartquake. I agree that it could be consolidation before a move higher. I hope I am wrong, but I am ok because I only started to short yesterday.

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  42. $NDX topped 5 days ago and appears to be in a downtrend. Financials are weak also. $Rifin closed near the lows of the day today. Neither $NDX nor $Rifin have surpassed the highs from early March unlike $SPX and others.

    This contrasts with $SPX and when the former leaders are still leading down from Feb, I don't see how this can be viewed as anything other than bearish.

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  43. SC, future is up again. At what point, will this pattern be invalidated, both price wise and time wise?

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  44. Good morning,

    Dollar continuing its slide and the market is not making new highs. It would be interesting to see the market drop with the dollar.

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  45. I've been thinking that it shouldn't go past the Feb high 1345, no specifics in terms of time.

    One short term symmetrical pattern that I am watching suggests this may be the last bounce with the bottom to fall out on the next dip.

    Let's see how it goes today, and I can show that chart on the weekend. I haven't been showing many short term charts because I think the larger picture is more important here.

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  46. S&P futures up over 60 DJIA pts this morning.Everyday they make the case for another trip to 1250...or lower less and less likely.The 1330/1333 area is now getting to be super strong support. We'll have to see if they finally get a close above the 1345 area today or early next week. Also,many,many stocks and indexes are still ramping and making new 2 yr...or in many cases an all time high. It doesn't help that oil,gold and silver are going straight up as well,because it also makes all the stocks associated with them go up, like the miners and drillers.It is what it is...until it isn't.

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  47. I'm watching financials closely and they are weak.

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  48. still an hour left for this to develop a bit more.

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  49. Yes, Blake. My short term pattern looks like it is playing out. Financials were the canary in the coal mine. Also RUT and NDX providing strong signals.

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  50. Looking pretty good SC. If we don't bounce into the close, it will make for an uglier Monday

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  51. Interesting day for sure. Guess we'll have to see if this stupid Guv Shutdown resolve means anything going into Monday.Big rally into the close ,but the door to the downside is a little bit open. The bears are going to have to pick up the ball and really hold onto it next week if we're going to get 1320,and then 1300 broken. We shall see.

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  52. Lets see if your 15th april target is right , maybe we get a faster move down than you expected as we delayed the move down SC ?

    Your cyclical tells us 15th April - next friday

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  53. It was an interesting day, and frankly glad we are starting to see a move away from that narrow trading range.

    I am wondering the same thing myself Sqwii, the drop could happen faster, or the timing could be delayed. I will be having a close review of the timing.

    The price target at 1206 SPX remains per my calculations.

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  54. The market should bounce as SPY is very oversold; tick and pressure readings showing a bounce and possible bounce to new highs is a high probability play.

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  55. Anyone trade ES mini's?? If so-who's the best broker to use?? Thank you!

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  56. I use Interactive Brokers. They have low costs.

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