tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post7215416149007065350..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: $SPX - Cycle Analysis Shows Volatile Swings AheadSChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-23865622085685600892014-12-22T11:34:15.673-08:002014-12-22T11:34:15.673-08:00SPX Cycle Update posted!SPX Cycle Update posted!SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-83364717992113826972014-12-22T07:28:15.399-08:002014-12-22T07:28:15.399-08:00Sold XIV at $34.45.Sold XIV at $34.45.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-22858660653979862972014-12-19T14:44:30.894-08:002014-12-19T14:44:30.894-08:00if I am reading right, commercials went short big ...if I am reading right, commercials went short big way<br />http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SP.png<br />http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/ES.pngrose2797https://www.blogger.com/profile/03282586687131575995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-24125336447701007332014-12-19T05:26:58.477-08:002014-12-19T05:26:58.477-08:00I was wrong about oil in my post one month ago.
Ma...I was wrong about oil in my post one month ago.<br />Maybe in the future it will reach 52.70 gap from 2009.<br /><br />This blog is usually correct on a few calls...and then it proves to be incorrect for a few months after.<br />I think it will be wrong on the upside and we will go into the 2100s (2130?) through January.<br />The ECB meets Jan 22? Also China will pump stimulus if it needs to.<br />We have one month of going up next.<br /><br /><br />Be CarefulNovember 17, 2014 at 6:24 AM<br />3 outcomes until Dec 31.<br /><br />a) correction to 1994, this is probably going to happen.<br />b) correction to 1925, possible but not likely at all.<br />c) correction to 1904, this will not happen. 7% pullback? would require a global catastrophe. will not happen. absolutely not.<br /><br />We will not close below 1925 the rest of the year, as stated earlier. What the VIX does is irrelevant, divergence...who cares? Breadth divergences across market will be of no consequence. Market sideways to mild down at worst. Best case 2070-2100 very soon.<br /><br />Once again, I expect this blog to post a bullish forecast until at least late January.<br /><br />Gold is not going below 1100 anytime soon. Waffle back and forth here or a tiny bit lower.<br /><br />Oil may touch 68-70 at worst.<br /><br />Look, the fact is ECB and BOJ will be firing money at any deflation threat for months to come (not to mention the interest rate control). Recessions will make them keep rates down...and apply all kinds of cockamamie stimulus plans. This idea that market breadth/"cycles" is going to offset trillions of dollars of global liquidity and zero interest rates is incorrect. Stop being logical.Be Carefulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927950605562456501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-37417166599546187422014-12-19T04:19:46.949-08:002014-12-19T04:19:46.949-08:00This guy is also goodwith cycles www.tripstrading....This guy is also goodwith cycles www.tripstrading.comAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04028886010757338809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-61659525371595091792014-12-19T04:02:18.981-08:002014-12-19T04:02:18.981-08:00VIX
http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/
VIX<br />http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/<br />joedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11431570805275310899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-45387124545144520682014-12-18T10:39:46.147-08:002014-12-18T10:39:46.147-08:00I expect we'll test the high for SPX around Ch...I expect we'll test the high for SPX around Christmas at the Cycle Orange arrow. Not likely much higher. <br /><br />The first week of January looks negative for SPX and the Cycle shows a drop from Orange to Blue into that time frame. I think the Oil/Russia situation calm for a week, and then unravel again with SPX plunging again into the blue arrow.<br /><br />It's a choppy market which is my favorite!SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-8854954876219376112014-12-18T10:20:55.241-08:002014-12-18T10:20:55.241-08:00BONDS
http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/BONDS<br /><br />http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/joedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11431570805275310899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-71014287507479140352014-12-18T10:20:07.329-08:002014-12-18T10:20:07.329-08:00Your timing has been perfect SC. Well done! If I l...Your timing has been perfect SC. Well done! If I look at your cycle correctly, the Orange arrow is a lower level than the previous high. So, you don't expect a higher high around Christmas?<br /><br />If I also read your circle correctly, the first months of 2015 look bearish and the stock market is likely to go down for a few months. Is that correct?<br /><br />Many thanks for your work. BestBobo Mikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13312529043980317394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-55829046757540937482014-12-18T08:38:49.104-08:002014-12-18T08:38:49.104-08:00Quite a solid bounce for VIX off 16 today. I thin...Quite a solid bounce for VIX off 16 today. I think we'll see 14 to 15 tested though.<br /><br />SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-69841313875682170082014-12-18T07:29:34.507-08:002014-12-18T07:29:34.507-08:00SPX up a few more days into probably Monday, dip a...SPX up a few more days into probably Monday, dip a little, then up and peak around Christmas at the Orange arrow. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-44703809195064342892014-12-17T10:09:28.928-08:002014-12-17T10:09:28.928-08:00Yes I am expecting a higher high at Point A.Yes I am expecting a higher high at Point A.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-40188571057270654112014-12-17T09:32:42.096-08:002014-12-17T09:32:42.096-08:00So A, you are expecting in March, from the chart ...So A, you are expecting in March, from the chart looks higher high, around 2100 2200 what people have been sayingrose2797https://www.blogger.com/profile/03282586687131575995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-66188433017374360342014-12-17T08:46:03.326-08:002014-12-17T08:46:03.326-08:00I'm not sure if the orange arrow will be highe...I'm not sure if the orange arrow will be higher or lower high for SPX. It'll be close I think.<br /><br />For XIV target is $34 to $36 this month. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-72861191094093654762014-12-17T06:21:46.877-08:002014-12-17T06:21:46.877-08:00SC, are you expecting a lower high or higher high ...SC, are you expecting a lower high or higher high in s$p, when are u planning to sell XiVrose2797https://www.blogger.com/profile/03282586687131575995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-9213722154665266902014-12-16T12:51:00.326-08:002014-12-16T12:51:00.326-08:00Bought XIV at $29.65.Bought XIV at $29.65.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-12725793809641996882014-12-16T08:50:39.729-08:002014-12-16T08:50:39.729-08:00My plan remains to just trade the big gyrations un...My plan remains to just trade the big gyrations until the Cycles have matured. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-62196788568254040402014-12-16T08:49:15.160-08:002014-12-16T08:49:15.160-08:00I'm satisfied that everything is setting up ac...I'm satisfied that everything is setting up according to the Cycle. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-23159320727559726872014-12-16T07:55:31.524-08:002014-12-16T07:55:31.524-08:00http://tinyurl.com/labxevf
my identified target p...http://tinyurl.com/labxevf<br /><br />my identified target price for VIX ($22.49) has been hit...expect my target price for UVXY ($41.75) will be hit as well...<br /><br />SC...you have previously 'misinterpreted' your SPX cycle...you may want to remain open to the possibility that you are doing so once again...point A may have occurred on December 5, 2014... rotrothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12478305615437936046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-42288382332394056912014-12-16T07:39:36.393-08:002014-12-16T07:39:36.393-08:00Well I think US equities are expensive, but they d...Well I think US equities are expensive, but they do look ok for coming months. The US was hit relatively the hardest in 2008 which is why they are doing relatively better than many other countries now. This relationship should hold true for a few more years but not forever... <br /><br />So the US is the best of the worst for now, which isn't exactly positive lol!SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-30846301129985890552014-12-16T06:50:38.219-08:002014-12-16T06:50:38.219-08:00Thanks. Let's see if the cycle is validated by...Thanks. Let's see if the cycle is validated by the coming course of events. It is true that US equities look safer than equities abroad, such as French equities for example. BestBobo Mikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13312529043980317394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-86362680430344779372014-12-16T06:45:08.805-08:002014-12-16T06:45:08.805-08:00SPX should do ok in the coming months. After reac...SPX should do ok in the coming months. After reaching Point A then it deteriorates rapidly.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-1519634812950791962014-12-16T06:42:57.695-08:002014-12-16T06:42:57.695-08:00Thank you!
Yes, the Cycle shows a roughly 50% ret...Thank you!<br /><br />Yes, the Cycle shows a roughly 50% retracement from Dec high to the Oct low. We're very close to that right now. Therefore, the low for SPX should occur soon.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-41926707103018457282014-12-16T05:10:00.305-08:002014-12-16T05:10:00.305-08:00Hi SC, well done for your work. I had a look at yo...Hi SC, well done for your work. I had a look at your cycle and it seems that the S&P may reach a low of 1950 before bouncing back.Do you agree? Tomorrow is the FOMC Meeting, maybe this will be the catalyst. The macro picture is quite frightening as Russia is under hard pressures. Equities are not the best place to be in the short run. Thanks for your views. Bobo Mikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13312529043980317394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-54466407494241842232014-12-15T10:57:03.019-08:002014-12-15T10:57:03.019-08:00Tx! Price was turned away again into time today a...Tx! Price was turned away again into time today after chasing stops! Best and Happy Holidays to all. Life is fragile!joedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11431570805275310899noreply@blogger.com