XIV - Decline has Commenced - Update

XIV plunged and came close to the initial downside target, and has bounced back to the orange trendline. 

Notice that XIV bounced at the blue trendline from August.  XIV is extremely weak and the blue trendline will not hold.   

The orange line may provide resistance or XIV may be able to overshoot it.  In any case the largest plunge is yet to come... 

2day Chart

Before:

This model shows similarity to XIV.  Notice the sudden drop with no warning, and continuation lower:

XIV - Reversion to the Mean

Mean reversion is the theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back toward the mean or average.

XIV has overheated and a reversion to the mean is likely in the months ahead. 

When prices become this stretched from the normal, the move tends to be quite violent with a panic decline.

2day Chart

This model shows similarity to XIV.  Notice the sudden drop with no warning, and continuation lower:

Not much room for downside on this chart for UVXY.  Price slowly grinding along support with time.  Spike up likely within a few weeks.

2day Chart

Gold - Bitcoin Signals Big Trouble for Gold

Bitcoin spells big trouble ahead for Gold.  The headlines are everywhere "Bitcoin - the new digital Gold".

Of course Bitcoin will not replace Gold.  Gold has the most history of any asset.  However, Gold is out of favour, and as Bitcoin builds momentum in a few years time people may actually believe that Bitcoin has replaced Gold!

Gold has been forming a classic Bear Flag over the last two years, and it is nearly complete.  The large size of the flag and measured moves are indicative of a large leg down coming in this bear market. 

Weekly Chart

XIV - Parabolic Move Ending at Resistance!

The parabolic move for XIV is almost over.  Price is reaching into overthrow territory.  It may become grossly overbought by reaching the orange trendline before turning down.

The "Trump trade" is coming to it's end.  The parabola, of course, will end very badly. 

Daily Chart

UVXY - Short Term Support and Resistance

UVXY gapped up above the blue resistance, and is currently trading within the fairly aggressive turquoise fork.  Price should transition into the orange fork with a more gradual and realistic pathway going forward.

It is unlikely that UVXY has bottomed, but a stronger bid is to be expected short term.    

30min Chart

UVXY - Building Strong Base

Momentum for XIV is dissipating by the week, and while XIV struggles, UVXY is forming a strong base. 

A selloff for SPX into January 2018 is anticipated. 

60min Chart

 

$SPX - Bull Market from 2009 has Terminated!!!

Cycles show that the Bull Market for SPX since 2009 has terminated at resistance.  Price has been grinding along resistance, but failed yesterday with a key reversal.

A lower low is to be expected in the months ahead for SPX to start. 

The model shows that the topping process will be characterized by whipsaws and chop.  The topping process is shown forming as a double top. 

Daily Chart

SPX - 2017 Top Detailed Model: