tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post909322344300167098..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: $SPX Freefall and VIX SymmetrySChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-6819935037026361112011-03-30T16:12:28.381-07:002011-03-30T16:12:28.381-07:00@ John Smith
Yes and the QQQ's have also just...@ John Smith<br /><br />Yes and the QQQ's have also just gone to new all time highs. The $TRAN are close,and have been an important leading indicator for years.Anyway,we'll have to see if some of these bellweather stocks like AAPL can break hard here soon. If we're going to get back to...and under 1250... I would think many stocks are going to have to get some big haircuts quickly. I'll look forward to the next post.Believe me, I would like to see an 8 to 10% correction as much as anybody.cantdrive55https://www.blogger.com/profile/03599205756408583352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-80752871997666253582011-03-30T15:54:45.826-07:002011-03-30T15:54:45.826-07:00SC-The RUT pushed to new highs today as you know I...SC-The RUT pushed to new highs today as you know I'm sure. Does that mean anything for your cycle work?? Thanks in advance. J.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-62579742907033649302011-03-30T14:07:58.763-07:002011-03-30T14:07:58.763-07:00BTW, I believe I figured out the math. My near te...BTW, I believe I figured out the math. My near term SPX target is moving down from 1222 for sure. I'm doing the calculations and will post later. I will have a target date for the bottom as well.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-6407741151355386182011-03-30T13:59:19.149-07:002011-03-30T13:59:19.149-07:00That sounds great GGuy. I'm interested to lea...That sounds great GGuy. I'm interested to learn how your timing cycles work. Thanks very much.<br /><br />I follow a number of markets, and the cycles work on everything. My time is the limiting factor, and I find that if I try to keep track of too many things at once it becomes less effective. So I generally try to keep things simple if possible.<br /><br />Having said that, I am working on gold and oil since they are interesting. I am often rambling about financials as I consider that they give important signals in advance of S&P etc....SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-59453305645743117032011-03-30T12:54:13.881-07:002011-03-30T12:54:13.881-07:00SC,
i will be glad to share our opinions on cycles...SC,<br />i will be glad to share our opinions on cycles. I'm starting a blog about it, with the main purpose of kepping track of my view and how they change when market make them change.<br /><br />Anyway, your impressive record made me reconsider my cycle count. I now give 50/50 to mine or your pattern. So i did just 10 minutes ago what a trader should do in that case: sold my long on S&P.<br /><br />What other markets do you follow? I'm going to write about S&P, Gold, EurUsd and maybe sometimes Natgas (still trying to overcome that wild beast^^)EllipseTradinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16037205404813011806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-68411315155638657932011-03-30T12:43:44.033-07:002011-03-30T12:43:44.033-07:00I agree with you in some ways ckorey. Tomorrow mo...I agree with you in some ways ckorey. Tomorrow morning selloff to low 1320's probable, but then test 1333 after that. I am not seeing anything higher than that at at this time.<br /><br />I'll have new charts tonight.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-52204054607622055742011-03-30T12:32:04.645-07:002011-03-30T12:32:04.645-07:00Don't see the set up yet. Would have to pull b...Don't see the set up yet. Would have to pull back below 1315.<br />Right now I see a pullback to 1320ish and then a strong move higher before any meaningful sell off.<br /><br />That would also complete a large invs head and shoulder formation to about 1355-1365.ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-55983538507459683502011-03-30T11:44:18.093-07:002011-03-30T11:44:18.093-07:00This is the second best shorting opportunity of th...This is the second best shorting opportunity of this year in my opinion. The best one comes later. I expect at the pink line around 1333 is the optimal spot to short. <br /><br />This rally from 1249 is mild compared to the selloff coming next. This isn't even my opinion - it is per the cycle as shown in the yellow box on the left of the chart.<br /><br />This rally has been slightly stronger than I thought with the 1317 target breached. That may indicate that my 1222 target is actually too high. I am looking at this very closely now.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-16635173670056195572011-03-30T10:57:06.150-07:002011-03-30T10:57:06.150-07:00It looks like it could go to 1342 or so before com...It looks like it could go to 1342 or so before coming down very hard as SC has been saying,who knows if it will even get there-if you're going to short-this is close enough I'd say.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-21149806854623561032011-03-30T09:55:03.643-07:002011-03-30T09:55:03.643-07:00One thing of note is that copper is selling off. B...One thing of note is that copper is selling off. Bears watching.ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-24096912206574300122011-03-30T09:40:44.267-07:002011-03-30T09:40:44.267-07:00It's 12:40 EST and we're sitting right at ...It's 12:40 EST and we're sitting right at SPX 1330. Our recent 2 yr high was 1344...so I guess we'll find out what's what here very soon. For a downturn scenario...we sure don't want to blow thru that and turn 1345 into support. Then SPX 1400 becomes a real possibility.'End of Qutr' is tmrw...so who knows(?) about "this" week...but we need to be below 1300 by this time next week. It wouldn't hurt to have AAPL trading below 320 either,and have the VIX up to at least 25. I would say those are "musts" to get a good selloff going. We shall see.cantdrive55https://www.blogger.com/profile/03599205756408583352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-68894921780540818372011-03-30T09:39:43.626-07:002011-03-30T09:39:43.626-07:00My top estimate was slightly low, but that is inde...My top estimate was slightly low, but that is independant of the overall cycle which is clear - we are going to go hard down, and soon.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-77278317944447907822011-03-30T09:23:50.343-07:002011-03-30T09:23:50.343-07:00Thinking the surprise may be on the upside blow of...Thinking the surprise may be on the upside blow off.ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-71083132383418505782011-03-30T08:59:31.347-07:002011-03-30T08:59:31.347-07:00Most likely we cool off to test the gap at 1320. ...Most likely we cool off to test the gap at 1320. After that we could test that line around 1333. <br /><br />So the potential upside is about 5 points. The downside is at least 90 points, maybe more. The downside is going to really surprise people here.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-45963541643860472822011-03-30T08:00:53.652-07:002011-03-30T08:00:53.652-07:00The top pink line on this SPX chart is around 1333...The top pink line on this SPX chart is around 1333. That should be a brick wall. These charts will need to be tweaked but the big down move is still intact according to the cycle.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-11951252025241832062011-03-30T07:51:03.014-07:002011-03-30T07:51:03.014-07:00I have not had a sell signal in two weeks so just ...I have not had a sell signal in two weeks so just letting it run.ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-10980633225916294182011-03-30T07:45:51.107-07:002011-03-30T07:45:51.107-07:00still looking pretty strong this morning. sitting...still looking pretty strong this morning. sitting on some intraday support right hereBlakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-15182985529986207332011-03-30T05:34:54.787-07:002011-03-30T05:34:54.787-07:00I still think we reverse today. A while back I me...I still think we reverse today. A while back I mentioned that from the cycle there should be a powerful spike up right at the end to finish. I think this may be what I am looking for.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-48506315384097421572011-03-30T02:03:11.045-07:002011-03-30T02:03:11.045-07:00Trying to delve into your ideas. Thanks for the bl...Trying to delve into your ideas. Thanks for the blog.Igalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16294319467321556031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-49662367793947503592011-03-29T22:49:00.204-07:002011-03-29T22:49:00.204-07:00After hours is up as well. SC, where is your line ...After hours is up as well. SC, where is your line in the sand to close out shorts? My April puts took a big hit today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-61792918819095988422011-03-29T16:20:39.208-07:002011-03-29T16:20:39.208-07:00I think we pull back to 1300ish by the end of the ...I think we pull back to 1300ish by the end of the week then move higher to make a lower high.ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-9495898562785356812011-03-29T15:24:40.024-07:002011-03-29T15:24:40.024-07:00SC-we're really not very far off on your call ...SC-we're really not very far off on your call as of yet. Remember at Xtrends-Atilla closed his short at 1285 saying a top was near and it went to 1340 after he said that before plunging as he predicted-so it's really the end result that matters-all the rest is noise.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-69200771092652469992011-03-29T15:17:24.237-07:002011-03-29T15:17:24.237-07:00As a bear I would much rather see this close than ...As a bear I would much rather see this close than what we had yesterday. It was too obvious. Anyone who chased the short side this morning was stung, and won't be likely to try again tomorrow. <br /><br />This kind of mechanism with some building up of intensity is what I like to see at the time of an important reversal.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-62957165657352503502011-03-29T14:21:27.275-07:002011-03-29T14:21:27.275-07:00Guess it all comes down to 1320 either becoming su...Guess it all comes down to 1320 either becoming support or resistance tomorrow. One thing for sure,regardless of whether you're a bull or a bear...that was a very bullish close today.cantdrive55https://www.blogger.com/profile/03599205756408583352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-60699557912524873262011-03-29T12:23:15.378-07:002011-03-29T12:23:15.378-07:00Going to need a very hard reversal to make your ch...Going to need a very hard reversal to make your chart come true.<br /><br />Strong upside at the moment.ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.com