tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post7754886760607142968..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: $SPX - Reversal and Expanding Cycle UpdateSChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger115125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-10462764410751374212013-06-04T05:59:06.188-07:002013-06-04T05:59:06.188-07:00New chart update posted.New chart update posted.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-84714777551115142122013-06-03T22:47:50.515-07:002013-06-03T22:47:50.515-07:00Bounce was due but I think SPX heading lower next ...Bounce was due but I think SPX heading lower next week. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-15835672290420716782013-06-03T18:23:34.537-07:002013-06-03T18:23:34.537-07:00Lovely bounce of the lows yesterday, looks like we...Lovely bounce of the lows yesterday, looks like we are finally in a corrective 4 & I'm looking for new highs at some point.<br /><br />Short UVXY at 6.90.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11933996022410844025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-79359201088149284162013-06-03T14:59:13.315-07:002013-06-03T14:59:13.315-07:00I'm not familiar with him, just thought it was...I'm not familiar with him, just thought it was interesting that the dates lined up with historical events.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-68466091367889588972013-06-03T13:38:50.561-07:002013-06-03T13:38:50.561-07:00SC, Puetz has been short market for last 2 years.SC, Puetz has been short market for last 2 years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-34031151209685802862013-06-03T09:55:15.153-07:002013-06-03T09:55:15.153-07:00There is panic in Nikkei but no panic in the S&...There is panic in Nikkei but no panic in the S&P. The horizontal red line is the most important in S&P. No panic until that breaks for S&P. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-27657342783087401392013-06-03T09:26:53.257-07:002013-06-03T09:26:53.257-07:00I'm short SPX, but will wait for UVXY. There ...I'm short SPX, but will wait for UVXY. There is no rush imo. Yes, I think there will be other entry points that are attractive.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-77411843169995757232013-06-03T09:16:57.090-07:002013-06-03T09:16:57.090-07:00"Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it gener..."Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks."SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-190302443884582022013-06-03T09:11:09.085-07:002013-06-03T09:11:09.085-07:00SPX hasn't dropped enough yet to be called a c...SPX hasn't dropped enough yet to be called a crash obviously, but the Nikkei has fallen 19% from May 22. <br /><br />That is significant.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-57635573032196530282013-06-03T09:05:02.597-07:002013-06-03T09:05:02.597-07:00Interestingly the lunar Cycle was quite accurate. ...Interestingly the lunar Cycle was quite accurate. The market topped on May 22. The full moon was May 25th: <br /><br />"The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace"<br /><br /><br />SCMay 13, 2013 at 8:12 AM<br />Solar eclipse was May 10th, and lunar eclipse full moon is May 25th.<br /><br />"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000." <br /><br />". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."<br /><br />SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-54706909896879062772013-06-03T08:52:27.309-07:002013-06-03T08:52:27.309-07:00Probably a lot of support for VIX around 15 now. ...Probably a lot of support for VIX around 15 now. It might settle to test that level then rise more.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-75258412966393644522013-06-03T08:47:28.044-07:002013-06-03T08:47:28.044-07:00Might see some chop around this level.Might see some chop around this level.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-47061239731987042272013-06-03T08:39:43.469-07:002013-06-03T08:39:43.469-07:00We did see near 12 for VIX. That might have been ...We did see near 12 for VIX. That might have been the low. When SPX rallied in May, VIX just simply didn't come down much. <br /><br />In the Cycle model it shows a decent bounce for SPX from near the horizontal red line ~1560 SPX or so to put in a lower high. I expect VIX to cool off a lot on that move which would present a good spot for UVXY. <br /><br />So if UVXY does follow through and pop here, then there should be resistance around $8 range, and can see $6's again afterwards. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-57909475744680207562013-06-03T08:37:23.917-07:002013-06-03T08:37:23.917-07:00SC,
Are you about to load up UVXY or still awaitin...SC,<br />Are you about to load up UVXY or still awaiting the next entry point?Darrenderekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14788762622411637127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-11948858423481830372013-06-03T08:36:04.040-07:002013-06-03T08:36:04.040-07:00Market did follow through on the downside, and so ...Market did follow through on the downside, and so probably UVXY can test around $8 which has been resistance. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-55883149163194009362013-06-03T08:34:29.161-07:002013-06-03T08:34:29.161-07:00I think there is resistance for VIX low 20's.I think there is resistance for VIX low 20's.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-18182947031704535792013-06-03T08:33:55.697-07:002013-06-03T08:33:55.697-07:00Around 20 VIX has been resistance going back for m...Around 20 VIX has been resistance going back for months. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-41336990494401177362013-06-03T08:18:05.618-07:002013-06-03T08:18:05.618-07:00Will UVXY hit $8 on this run?
Too many false star...Will UVXY hit $8 on this run?<br /><br />Too many false starts....hard to get excited.<br /><br />Watching XIV closely for break under 21PayDayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165480697513927357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-27343469009137138652013-06-03T08:10:56.314-07:002013-06-03T08:10:56.314-07:00Any short term targets for VIX here?Any short term targets for VIX here?Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11004676359273995104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-48537887624826453772013-06-03T06:37:10.997-07:002013-06-03T06:37:10.997-07:00Let's wait and see how things unfold early thi...Let's wait and see how things unfold early this week. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-27099859045512524232013-06-03T00:31:20.577-07:002013-06-03T00:31:20.577-07:00SC,
is it still possible that VIX will go down to ...SC,<br />is it still possible that VIX will go down to 11-12? if not, does it mean that VIX is about to shoot up from here until Point P in S&P is reached?Darrenderekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14788762622411637127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-85814307814408478102013-06-02T19:43:06.180-07:002013-06-02T19:43:06.180-07:00Well more validation that the bottom is in for gol...Well more validation that the bottom is in for gold and gold stocks. Aussie gold stocks, many majors, currently up over 10% on volume despite gold being down 1.7% Friday.<br /><br />They are on fire in Oz today with the broader market lower. Capital flows into the gold sector could be massive if things get ugly in the broader market.beetlejuicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317530269578300545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-16708962605827052102013-06-02T12:28:58.415-07:002013-06-02T12:28:58.415-07:00Yes, the history from 2011 shows that VIX futures ...Yes, the history from 2011 shows that VIX futures etf performance increases when VIX is at higher levels - in the upper part of it's range.<br /><br />I can probably show some performance comparison charts to visually show this compounding effect.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-4595328654277432402013-06-02T10:56:52.534-07:002013-06-02T10:56:52.534-07:00Thanks for the example, that helps and we'll s...Thanks for the example, that helps and we'll see that the UVXY price action will act different as the VIX risesPhilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11004676359273995104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-47300154585209723892013-06-02T08:57:36.051-07:002013-06-02T08:57:36.051-07:00Well, we will see. The market really hasn't d...Well, we will see. The market really hasn't declined much. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.com