tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post5666945056409347735..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: $SPX - Taking it to the Limits SChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-54932998735143840052013-01-04T12:22:33.301-08:002013-01-04T12:22:33.301-08:00I'm afraid of UVXY too. I ever lost lots of mo...I'm afraid of UVXY too. I ever lost lots of money on UVXY. I bought TZA at $12.14. Now it seems no chance for me sell it and reload it at $12. Hopefully good luck.HJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11100222387715095597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-30814083930519157482013-01-04T11:53:13.896-08:002013-01-04T11:53:13.896-08:00??? and....? nothing ????? and....? nothing ??Mishkahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04376452143913290454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-48735080572953348692013-01-04T11:44:50.911-08:002013-01-04T11:44:50.911-08:00not, reset my buy to $12 and leaving it there. I t...not, reset my buy to $12 and leaving it there. I think it gets there in a final push..<br /><br />Really want to buy UVXY though, but promised myself not to buy and hold that one overnight anymore as my new year resolution of tight money management.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-66898371683009815922013-01-04T11:37:03.560-08:002013-01-04T11:37:03.560-08:00I'd also have a "Current Position/Trade H...I'd also have a "Current Position/Trade History" section so readers can see what and when you make your purchases in real time, and where your stops are. Again, helpful for transparency and credibility IMO.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-39304507543316514672013-01-04T10:15:25.144-08:002013-01-04T10:15:25.144-08:00Hi SS76,
Did you reload TZA at 12.1$ ?
Hi SS76,<br />Did you reload TZA at 12.1$ ?<br />HJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11100222387715095597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-52232859335592833902013-01-04T09:16:01.953-08:002013-01-04T09:16:01.953-08:00The main point I'm making about the VIX is jus...The main point I'm making about the VIX is just that we are in a very unusual market. I think people should therefore be open to thinking outside the box. The seemingly impossble can become reality. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-14900064395046551202013-01-04T08:59:20.126-08:002013-01-04T08:59:20.126-08:00ya, I'm with you there, its certainly intrigui...ya, I'm with you there, its certainly intriguing at this juncture. VIX cash is almost at 13.50 I am looking for, but UVXY is trading futures so can come down much more. Also still plenty of room on the RSI to come down, so leery.<br /><br />TZA on the other hand is really compelling here.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-49230874211589524142013-01-04T08:50:16.774-08:002013-01-04T08:50:16.774-08:00Very rare!!!Very rare!!!SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-62135265332190196582013-01-04T08:50:01.901-08:002013-01-04T08:50:01.901-08:00The behaviour of VIX has been very unusual this we...The behaviour of VIX has been very unusual this week. The only prior examples occurred around 1987 and around the flash crash in May 2010.<br /><br />"In fact, prior to 2010, one would have to go back to the days following the 1987 stock-market crash to see such sharp losses."<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/id/100352607SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-14637174410155399372013-01-04T08:34:35.690-08:002013-01-04T08:34:35.690-08:00VIX getting hammered today again. UVXY still hang...VIX getting hammered today again. UVXY still hanging in there today, but I think it'll follow VIX lower even if delayed. <br /><br />One thing I am waiting to see on UVXY is low daily volume. Too much volume for UVXY daily is a sign of hot money chasing it imo. I will buy it on low volume when it is "boring" and complacency high. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-51959383852603494852013-01-04T07:15:03.543-08:002013-01-04T07:15:03.543-08:00Yes I agree that it is a good idea to keep the sho...Yes I agree that it is a good idea to keep the short term and big picture charts and discussion separate. I plan to make changes going forward.<br /><br />Thanks again.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-6466316463147612122013-01-04T06:58:46.680-08:002013-01-04T06:58:46.680-08:00SC, like I previously suggested. Have one page st...SC, like I previously suggested. Have one page strictly dedicted to long term charts, and a seperate page dedicated to short term. It makes you transparent and easier to follow.<br /><br />Your blog though, do as you wish of course.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-3289793953796027862013-01-04T06:53:04.547-08:002013-01-04T06:53:04.547-08:00stopped out TZA $12.23, will look to reload a bit ...stopped out TZA $12.23, will look to reload a bit lower, maybe $12.10.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-3963067055598207762013-01-04T06:51:06.740-08:002013-01-04T06:51:06.740-08:00firm stop set, $12.23, break evenfirm stop set, $12.23, break evenSS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-70203625208715917852013-01-04T06:04:38.622-08:002013-01-04T06:04:38.622-08:00My forecast and cycles are gloomy for 2013. Havin...My forecast and cycles are gloomy for 2013. Having said that, I do see very positive spots coming in the years ahead. So I'm certainly not saying that this is the end of the road, or anything of that nature. <br /><br />We have had many rough patches since 2000. This year is just likely to be another rough patch albeit it looks particularly nasty this year. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-5141198989104971912013-01-04T03:22:32.245-08:002013-01-04T03:22:32.245-08:00why don't you share 'what it potentially m...why don't you share 'what it potentially means for the lows we are making' with the rest of us ? Surely it's not a secret, is it? cbear2https://www.blogger.com/profile/16201145337136246467noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-5612074079767569032013-01-03T19:10:31.787-08:002013-01-03T19:10:31.787-08:00SC,
Are you familiar with Gann's 60yr cycle a...SC,<br /><br />Are you familiar with Gann's 60yr cycle and what it potentially means for the lows we are making?AMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16653995150217130058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-54102123378918468172013-01-03T13:25:46.513-08:002013-01-03T13:25:46.513-08:00According to ECRI, recession may have started in J...According to ECRI, recession may have started in July 2012. Of course the market and the economy are different animals. <br /><br />Just reminding to keep in mind that with the market marching up on a sugar high, things aren't as rosy as they may appear sometimes. <br /><br /> http://www.businesscycle.com/SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-30413003447415497532013-01-03T12:38:33.652-08:002013-01-03T12:38:33.652-08:00Dipping.
SCJanuary 3, 2013 7:37 AM
"Thanks S...Dipping.<br /><br />SCJanuary 3, 2013 7:37 AM<br />"Thanks SS. Seems there is a decent chance for a dip today. Sometime soon can dip about 15 points."<br />SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-22380743505809669472013-01-03T12:31:03.596-08:002013-01-03T12:31:03.596-08:00If the jobs data is good tomorrow, which I suspect...If the jobs data is good tomorrow, which I suspect it will be, combined with the comments from the FED minutes that many think QE will well before the end of the year, I think the market will sell right off. I'm positioned for it with TZA and I think its a hold for a few days. My stop is set at $12.25 (mental stop). My target for Tuesday is $13.30SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-11506723264532669432013-01-03T10:29:06.819-08:002013-01-03T10:29:06.819-08:00I have a low in early March around 1300 - 1320, be...I have a low in early March around 1300 - 1320, before taking off to new highs...SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-49894970486636020722013-01-03T10:09:57.299-08:002013-01-03T10:09:57.299-08:00Once the topping process is complete the next shor...Once the topping process is complete the next short term target would be around 1380. <br /><br />That is just a short term target for January. I have big picture charts coming with measured targets for the first half of the year, and wait until you see them!!! SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-14392431433289193562013-01-03T10:05:23.759-08:002013-01-03T10:05:23.759-08:00Hi SC
Not understanding this bears time is coming...Hi SC<br /><br />Not understanding this bears time is coming mean, even hitting 1380, isnt that a large pullback? basically 100 points from this level. I would think bears time meaning at least 200 to 300 points drop. <br /><br /><br />Thanks!Santahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12676163183934734551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-81900955416106127422013-01-03T09:50:18.935-08:002013-01-03T09:50:18.935-08:00Joe, looked on your site and see your TZA chart......Joe, looked on your site and see your TZA chart...<br /><br />What are you thinking for a next move on this one?SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-43351147532642962592013-01-03T09:48:37.125-08:002013-01-03T09:48:37.125-08:00After the topping process completes, the model sug...After the topping process completes, the model suggests a test of the red trendline. Late Jan that would be about 1380ish SPX.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.com