tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post5524316764389825519..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: $SPX - NDX Still Leading DownSChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-72924312722888615572011-12-19T21:35:31.796-08:002011-12-19T21:35:31.796-08:00SPY may be able to reach near that level, but more...SPY may be able to reach near that level, but more likely Dec 27th.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-72868220184531994862011-12-19T21:34:38.197-08:002011-12-19T21:34:38.197-08:00It will take weeks to reach $37 for Silver. I hav...It will take weeks to reach $37 for Silver. I have a plan for Silver and Gold in terms of short term moves. Let me show those charts tomorrow.<br /><br />Gold is the "smoother" safe haven trade. Silver is more erratic with quick moves. I'll show why Silver is acting this way in the short term charts. It makes sense.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-59272903732402957262011-12-19T19:34:03.022-08:002011-12-19T19:34:03.022-08:00SC
do you see a retracement above 1240 on the spy...SC<br /><br />do you see a retracement above 1240 on the spy THIS week?<br /><br />thanksstevesteve121https://www.blogger.com/profile/14841650249336534400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-69376336310481462802011-12-19T18:13:11.845-08:002011-12-19T18:13:11.845-08:00I don't think you'll see Silver at $37 in ...I don't think you'll see Silver at $37 in just 3 days.....the way I'm feeling, we'll be lucky to see Silver at $30. Anyways, it is due for a bounce, just hope it happens very soon.<br /><br />What seems clear to me though, is that the safe haven trade seems to be reappearing with Gold, but NOT with Silver. <br /><br />SC, why do you think Silver will be a safe haven too? Gold has always behaved differently to Silver, and it is doing the same now. Gold had minimal losses today while Silver was hammered.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-30147617666606092262011-12-19T13:12:33.061-08:002011-12-19T13:12:33.061-08:00Hi SC
silver and gold running up to dec 27, is th...Hi SC<br /><br />silver and gold running up to dec 27, is the silver target of $37 around those date? or later on in January and the rise for this week is just a small one?<br /><br /><br />Thanks!Santahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12676163183934734551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-33585235329266275462011-12-19T13:02:43.856-08:002011-12-19T13:02:43.856-08:00I'll have the short term charts out later. Ev...I'll have the short term charts out later. Everything going very smoothly. <br /><br />Today down day for SPX as expected.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-8633349001077708462011-12-19T12:44:43.934-08:002011-12-19T12:44:43.934-08:00I agree with you SC.
This week seems to be quite b...I agree with you SC.<br />This week seems to be quite bullish according to my model.Bobo Mikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13312529043980317394noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-63271634931723769652011-12-19T10:26:18.616-08:002011-12-19T10:26:18.616-08:00Starting today/tomorrow Silver/Gold can run up int...Starting today/tomorrow Silver/Gold can run up into Dec 27th. Let me show a chart on how this would look.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-19667428034381200512011-12-19T10:12:55.332-08:002011-12-19T10:12:55.332-08:00Hi SC
Looking for your input on silver price this...Hi SC<br /><br />Looking for your input on silver price this week and next week? you mention silver bounce significantly for a week (which week is it that you seeing?) <br /><br />Thanks!Santahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12676163183934734551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-6322055118755186792011-12-19T09:17:41.335-08:002011-12-19T09:17:41.335-08:00Bluemoon, that means Gold and Silver have little o...Bluemoon, that means Gold and Silver have little or no downside. Same as 2008. <br /><br />My thinking is S&P is about to put in a short term bottom. Tomorrow morning perhaps. <br /><br />Silver and Gold bounce significantly for a week. Maybe another chance to accumulate Silver/Gold Dec 28-30 with S&P tanking.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-74284905439210316392011-12-19T08:43:04.770-08:002011-12-19T08:43:04.770-08:00SC, per my calculations we are at 11/14/2008SC, per my calculations we are at 11/14/2008Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-31186598887283261972011-12-19T08:39:11.027-08:002011-12-19T08:39:11.027-08:00SC,
what i find interesting is that in 2008 silv...SC, <br /><br />what i find interesting is that in 2008 silver already reached the bottom by the time the intermediate top on the USDX was achieved on 11/21/2008. this today would correspond with bottom in silver in place by or around 12/26/2011 if we are to continue following the pattern. <br /><br />This would also imply that the dollar is near the intermediate top/ stock market is at the intermediate bottom. USD has one more chance to top before 1/8/11 then weakness should kick in for a couple of weeks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-14304326138458081802011-12-19T08:29:21.545-08:002011-12-19T08:29:21.545-08:00My view on the dollar fractal chart (which I quite...My view on the dollar fractal chart (which I quite like) is that we are already in Oct of 2008 in terms of the dollar. <br /><br />There is absolutely no way Silver and Gold are going to those levels.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-60533179783036071722011-12-19T07:43:32.356-08:002011-12-19T07:43:32.356-08:00New low for BAC this morning.New low for BAC this morning.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-33864554982244427622011-12-19T07:33:52.383-08:002011-12-19T07:33:52.383-08:00SC,
US dollar is testing the resistance that mark...SC,<br /><br />US dollar is testing the resistance that marked the beginning of crash in '08, equivalent of august 8th, 2008.. gold fell 15% during that dollar break out, but per fractal we should not break that level yet, not for another 3-4 weeks:<br /><br />http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/5231/streamingserver8321772.gif<br /><br />for PM bears - if this level does not hold i see 24$/oz silver written all over, could even overshoot to the downside because of panic this time around. Gold silver ratio is in bullish alignment testing overhead resistance at 55 .. if its taken out 60+ gold silver ratio could be achieved fairly quickly, thats 14XX/oz gold at least.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-59678138532725352202011-12-19T07:22:49.440-08:002011-12-19T07:22:49.440-08:00My thinking on Silver is that from mid-July to mid...My thinking on Silver is that from mid-July to mid-August it pushed up with S&P declining. On individual down days for S&P in the summer, sometimes Silver was up and sometimes it was down, but overall it pushed higher. <br /><br />Same thing now. <br /><br />It will be the safe haven trade that pushes Silver and Gold higher. Prices are attractive for Silver and Gold at this level, and the safe haven trade is about to start up. There isn't much fear around currently, but there will be soon....<br /><br />Yes, Silver may bounce around here, but the target is $37, and will take weeks to get there.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-4233436313554017062011-12-19T07:00:04.053-08:002011-12-19T07:00:04.053-08:00SC do you still maintain 37 target for silver?SC do you still maintain 37 target for silver?UNBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13194353747615465208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-72500457032704172932011-12-19T06:53:06.919-08:002011-12-19T06:53:06.919-08:00Weakness in the futures last night. There could b...Weakness in the futures last night. There could be some weakness today. Starting from tomorrow morning and into Wed look stronger (for SPX). Silver a little soft this morning, but holding well over the last few days. The S&P futures tested the levels last night of Dec 15th, but Silver and Gold held up higher.<br /><br />Silver and S&P likely rise into Wed (even if a little weak over the next day). <br /><br />From Wed into Fri looks weak for mkts, Dec 27th looks very strong. Dec 28-30th look very weak.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-66826519275546878512011-12-18T20:39:07.370-08:002011-12-18T20:39:07.370-08:00Getting worse by the minute. I'm going to be ...Getting worse by the minute. I'm going to be scared to see what Silver looks like in the morning. S & P call looks good though, just the decoupling idea isn't holding true.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-14075846379876011832011-12-18T18:52:41.930-08:002011-12-18T18:52:41.930-08:00Beetlejuice, gotta agree. Silver looks really weak...Beetlejuice, gotta agree. Silver looks really weak, and frankly looks set to follow the markets lower. It just seems like it will get hit harder than the rest since its such a small market. Hopefully the rest of the week is more positive for silver, tomorrow is not looking good.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-55545294548365015412011-12-18T17:29:21.070-08:002011-12-18T17:29:21.070-08:00Why is it that I look at silver and see a bearish ...Why is it that I look at silver and see a bearish picture?<br /><br />Declining volume off Wednesdays low confirming a bearish flag.<br /><br />Looks like lower lows to come to me.<br /><br />SC I think if the stock market takes a hit silver isn't going to go unscathed and the dollar is still signalling trouble in fantasy landbeetlejuicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17317530269578300545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-57549777177604355402011-12-17T12:01:09.995-08:002011-12-17T12:01:09.995-08:00Bluemoon,
Excellent work, thank you for that com...Bluemoon, <br /><br />Excellent work, thank you for that comparison. The timing of events on the dollar makes a lot of sense going forward. The pieces of the puzzle are fitting well. Remember what happened to S&P in Nov 2008...SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-71492123036062559272011-12-16T21:02:17.199-08:002011-12-16T21:02:17.199-08:00SC, if we look at the Global Markets; Emerging Mar...SC, if we look at the Global Markets; Emerging Markets were the first to fall & Developed Markets specially started to Corrected after some time; exactly this is what we are seeing; We have seen BRIC nations almost at or near or some have also broken 2011 low.Financial Analysishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01582469523904040768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-16963071653696391412011-12-16T19:43:53.867-08:002011-12-16T19:43:53.867-08:00SC,
Can you assist to chart SPXU as well. Thanks....SC,<br /><br />Can you assist to chart SPXU as well. Thanks.Timerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06791098996226709854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-39475152334047571032011-12-16T19:23:19.470-08:002011-12-16T19:23:19.470-08:00SC, i started looking at the dollar fractal some t...SC, i started looking at the dollar fractal some time ago and was amazed at how well it correlated with 2011. First i was able to project the dollar break out date +- a few days, then it marked the first dollar top, the next dollar bottom followed now we are in the potential topping pattern similar to 2008. I'll let the charts speak from here (see below). First - chart at the top is 2008- you can clearly see consolidation from march to july followed by the break out from the channel. That break out day is important, i use it as an anchor point for future date projections (double red circle). There are a several important dates that follow: first top/bottom followed by major top in oct-dec 2008. Note the pattern of the big top - its a head and shoulders/triple top followed by a significant decline into December 2008. Now onto the second chart - 2011. The same consolidation, in fact it took 144 days in 2008 to consolidate vs. 138 -147 days in 2011. I was waiting for that date. Imagine me freaking out when dollar started breaking out a week earlier! It took two attempts but it was out of the channel in 147 days, only 3 days off and i was able to calculate this date months in advance! My concern was that there may be some time factor, the fractal couldn't keep the same timing i thought. the time may have changed/compressed/expanded. onto the next turning point: first top. It came in 12 days earlier than projected date - 10/16/11. First bottom, on the other hand, came in on the same date as projected 10/27/11! Next high was only a week off. 11/25 vs. 12/1.<br /><br />The implications are that the fractal seems to be still active. It follows similar time frames and most important thing is that in 2008 dollar topped out in november and then finally in march 2009. The first major top date today corresponds with 12/26/2011, or exactly 10 days from now. The beginning of the first dollar decline in 2008 (lower high) corresponds with 1/8/2012 after that date the decline would be expected. In 2008 the decline was quite significant and it marked the beginning of the next big leg up for the metals. Final dollar top came in march 3rd 2009 and corresponds with 4/6/2012 today.<br /><br />So the period of consolidation indeed could be very short this time around. We should keep an eye on these dates, dig into the charts may be you'll pick up something i did not. The turn may be closer than most think, in fact we may have turned already!<br /><br />http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/5065/dollarfractal.pngAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com