tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post5315974542508973501..comments2024-03-27T08:45:49.016-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: $SPX - Medium Term (Updated)SChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-92201919586156275462011-03-27T18:54:36.056-07:002011-03-27T18:54:36.056-07:00There is good evidence for a bottom in the 1220...There is good evidence for a bottom in the 1220's, but the key is that I am looking for a triple bottom. That should mark the bottom in any case. We can review once in the 1220's and see how things are shaping up.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-46322367099155527402011-03-27T13:27:40.784-07:002011-03-27T13:27:40.784-07:00Hello SC,
You expect A = C (95 pts) but any chan...Hello SC, <br /><br />You expect A = C (95 pts) but any chance we might see A = 1.618*C? This market is so stretched, I think it is doable for SPX to briefly beak 200DMA, currently at 1190. Thanks a lot!ejoyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577581622675549753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-8163458950735213002011-03-27T01:17:26.203-07:002011-03-27T01:17:26.203-07:00SC-I NEVER take this guys advise seriously but Im ...SC-I NEVER take this guys advise seriously but Im amazed at the charts he posts,and the time he must put into them, that no one but he can understand. Anyway-its Humble Students site and he just posted-for what it's worth- "extreame bearish on all indices" ect.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-91196520174259745072011-03-27T01:05:49.285-07:002011-03-27T01:05:49.285-07:00Thank you.Thank you.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-32297801771333404282011-03-26T21:34:50.563-07:002011-03-26T21:34:50.563-07:00There will be new charts coming tomorrow. I am sa...There will be new charts coming tomorrow. I am satisfied with this medium term chart and target SPX 1222 as is (no changes). <br /><br />I am expecting a hard drop this week. Tues looks more probable than Monday for the selloff to start. It is possible that Monday retests the Friday high 1319, and that would be fine.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-4864425229450827622011-03-26T21:26:53.228-07:002011-03-26T21:26:53.228-07:00Any one know a quick way to "reverse" bl...Any one know a quick way to "reverse" black and white on this site? Using IE 9 in Windows 7 -- and the white text on black background "killing" these old eyes.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14520637767170071195noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-80598391073675895432011-03-26T18:03:49.551-07:002011-03-26T18:03:49.551-07:00SC-will you update this weekend or wait untill you...SC-will you update this weekend or wait untill you see what gives Monday? Thanks.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-35205563565697851312011-03-25T15:57:21.672-07:002011-03-25T15:57:21.672-07:00SC---
The strength of this market has been awe in...SC---<br /><br />The strength of this market has been awe inspiring--I took the remainng 30% of my calls off today but held off on buying puts---there is another large pomo on Monday and mutual fund monday awaits coupled with the wild card of the market having every incentive to keep this thing up into the end of the quarter <br /><br />I really like your chart and your annalysis but there is going to need to be a big trigger event over the wknd. to break this pigmbt1027https://www.blogger.com/profile/07855038642982156816noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-44941768091244326562011-03-25T11:56:51.330-07:002011-03-25T11:56:51.330-07:00Yes, that move to 1352 should be the start of a mu...Yes, that move to 1352 should be the start of a multi-year ugly bear market. I think the long term bottom is unbelievably far down. Let's just say if there still is a functioning market once the current monstrosity unwinds, that will be a positive.<br /><br />Of course this whole process will take time, and there will be surprisingly long and sharp rallies along the way.<br /><br />Have yourself a great weekend as well!SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-22636555555031654712011-03-25T11:18:04.949-07:002011-03-25T11:18:04.949-07:00SC-first of all thanks for all the work you've...SC-first of all thanks for all the work you've posted. My question is do you think-that once it hits 1352 ect that will end this bull market? I was curious if you've thought about long term ect. Thanks again and have a great weekend.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-42421445267053653982011-03-25T10:44:41.841-07:002011-03-25T10:44:41.841-07:00LolLolSChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-68929498001253778602011-03-25T10:21:33.052-07:002011-03-25T10:21:33.052-07:00SC-any chance you could tell me what the Mega Buck...SC-any chance you could tell me what the Mega Bucks Lotto number will be next week also??john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-53062027815385314482011-03-25T08:26:02.021-07:002011-03-25T08:26:02.021-07:00amazing is right.amazing is right.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-5412674010319135272011-03-25T08:07:53.073-07:002011-03-25T08:07:53.073-07:00it will be amazing if we turn down here.it will be amazing if we turn down here.Blakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-4532602297711851962011-03-25T08:00:55.185-07:002011-03-25T08:00:55.185-07:00Bingo 1318!!!Bingo 1318!!!SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-21399278680893237122011-03-25T07:35:42.197-07:002011-03-25T07:35:42.197-07:001315 SPX now, I'm heavily short. Also long VI...1315 SPX now, I'm heavily short. Also long VIX.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-83895377747769574302011-03-25T06:28:34.363-07:002011-03-25T06:28:34.363-07:00thanks again SCthanks again SCBlakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-86968346608751182462011-03-24T21:54:45.208-07:002011-03-24T21:54:45.208-07:00Something to keep an eye on this weekend is the Ge...Something to keep an eye on this weekend is the German elections:<br /><br />http://news.xin.msn.com/en/business/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4735315<br /><br />Merkel's future seems cloudy. She has been a big bailout supporter.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-57032980961560401032011-03-24T21:02:14.327-07:002011-03-24T21:02:14.327-07:00We're in the very final finishing thrust of th...We're in the very final finishing thrust of this rally in my view. Timewise my micro cycle looks to be complete ideally as of tomorrow morning, and that means this rally should be finished almost right away. <br /><br />It is quite possible we see a reversal tomorrow, or if it is able to hold up and hover into the close, then Monday would look ripe for the selloff.<br /><br />I'm sure we are going to drop off here first and there is plenty of evidence to support that. Financials $rifin topped on Monday, and leading down. VIX looks like it has bottomed on my charts. Many of my charts are looking unusually extreme. I'll show charts on the weekend.<br /><br />The intensity really started to pick up towards the end today. The bears are in the pressure cooker. What better time is there to put shorts in place?! Upside to my target 1317 from today's high is 5.5 points and downside is 90 points.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-55191326869365846272011-03-24T19:22:39.176-07:002011-03-24T19:22:39.176-07:00SC-I agree with your 1352 call but could it go the...SC-I agree with your 1352 call but could it go there right from here and then head down-rather than seeing 1222 first?? Thank you.john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-78602138478424102362011-03-24T15:05:55.604-07:002011-03-24T15:05:55.604-07:00SC---
Did you see this article at the close:
htt...SC---<br /><br />Did you see this article at the close:<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/article/someone-leak-something<br /><br />So the bullish spin is they know something ---the other take away is these guys have shown their card to the primary dealers----last week the primary dealers had unbelievable monetary incentive to kill all the put buyers thus the continual gap ups-----<br /><br />We will see next week if this buyer knew something or whether they now just painted a large target on their ass--mbt1027https://www.blogger.com/profile/07855038642982156816noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-64603902727563161712011-03-24T13:17:31.252-07:002011-03-24T13:17:31.252-07:00SC--
Im out of 70% of my calls today---looking to...SC--<br /><br />Im out of 70% of my calls today---looking to exit the rest tomorrow----probably going to be forced to buy puts to carry over the wknd which I hate doing----market rising on puffs and puffs of pomo smoke here----good size pomo tomorrow and monday<br /><br />wanted to get your feedback based on the close if your looking for that 1317 tomorrow----the best "f" U job would be a Friday move up and then something to happen over the wknd. for a gap down on Mondaymbt1027https://www.blogger.com/profile/07855038642982156816noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-51380664210027531822011-03-24T11:25:20.710-07:002011-03-24T11:25:20.710-07:00Short RUT should do well. I will fine tune some c...Short RUT should do well. I will fine tune some charts and targets for RUT.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-63892279161374983472011-03-24T10:10:58.843-07:002011-03-24T10:10:58.843-07:00SC-may I ask your thoughts on RUT I'm short vi...SC-may I ask your thoughts on RUT I'm short via TZA calls-thank you!john smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13257994128428186972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-70329109152457969222011-03-24T08:49:20.382-07:002011-03-24T08:49:20.382-07:00I did short some here SPX 1307. I still think it ...I did short some here SPX 1307. I still think it can test 1317, but I can see a pullback here to maybe 1294.<br /><br />Financials $rifin a little weaker contrasting SPX. Also VIX perking up from todays lows.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.com