tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post2440944332791663394..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: $SPX - Bearish IndicationsSChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-10887424428757635892011-10-05T17:34:31.193-07:002011-10-05T17:34:31.193-07:00today's financials didn't catch up till th...today's financials didn't catch up till the very end. It seemed like the market wanted to roll over several times. Always the last 45 minutes is where the action, up or down! Russell was kind of weak today too. Do you see 1075 broken or make a higher low this week?curiousmindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01666424655241738081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-43778755558546168822011-10-05T12:46:01.599-07:002011-10-05T12:46:01.599-07:00Selling a lot of my longs into this rally at the c...Selling a lot of my longs into this rally at the close. Just bought them yesterday and made really good profits. Might just wait until tomorrow to see what will happen.fartninja33https://www.blogger.com/profile/15718266926887561917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-62405549349780013822011-10-05T12:04:27.055-07:002011-10-05T12:04:27.055-07:00Yes, I see a lot of potential for weakness tomorro...Yes, I see a lot of potential for weakness tomorrow....SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-2145301868827637362011-10-05T12:01:26.666-07:002011-10-05T12:01:26.666-07:00I agree SC not good to push this, are you looking ...I agree SC not good to push this, are you looking at markets starting to turn down tomorrow?Muzzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10089965117242010751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-44701988447412618232011-10-05T11:51:38.463-07:002011-10-05T11:51:38.463-07:00The metals have been so flat lately, that I have j...The metals have been so flat lately, that I have just been watching and waiting for some better action. I do think Silver should retest the lows, but I'm not sure if it could pop first or what. The larger swings are the ones I am mostly interested in capturing. I think we shall see some nice moves coming in the months ahead.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-62576262712030628852011-10-05T11:34:17.574-07:002011-10-05T11:34:17.574-07:00SC, where do metals go from here? Silver would pro...SC, where do metals go from here? Silver would probably pick up the liquidity and run up somewhat..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-1893926031224196342011-10-05T11:29:23.133-07:002011-10-05T11:29:23.133-07:00I have also been debating whether the low could be...I have also been debating whether the low could be in. I can't rule it out, but I'm seeing a lot of traders saying the low is in. That makes me think another test just lower than 1075 might be in order. <br /><br />Having said that, I wouldn't try to push a short trade too far here. Covering some or all at around 1095 may be a safe way to go, and then start considering longs on dips from there.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-68313521377656502482011-10-05T11:13:14.055-07:002011-10-05T11:13:14.055-07:00Hi SC, what level do you see SPX dropping to befor...Hi SC, what level do you see SPX dropping to before we start this rally into year end? I wonder if we have seen bottom already. I would have thought and was looking for a low of 1010 to 1050 level for a bottom. What are your thoughts?<br /><br />Thanks SCMuzzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10089965117242010751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-91561136357841991702011-10-05T11:01:16.530-07:002011-10-05T11:01:16.530-07:00Both RUT and Rifin - financials are weakening. Ma...Both RUT and Rifin - financials are weakening. Makes sense to short SPX around this level 1139 for a short term move.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-55874829916559408262011-10-05T09:21:25.324-07:002011-10-05T09:21:25.324-07:00The big difference between now and 2008 is that al...The big difference between now and 2008 is that all eyes are looking for a drop. Very few in Sept 2008 were looking for a drop. The bear trade is crowded this time.<br /><br />Look at how the media are trying to compare Morgan to Lehman. The bear trap is being set...<br /><br />"Morgan Stanley executives are battling a daily barrage of speculation and nay-saying to try to stem a sharp slide in the company’s stock, the New York Times reports."SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-23563876371936762812011-10-05T08:38:53.738-07:002011-10-05T08:38:53.738-07:00SC, here is another chart im looking at suggesting...SC, here is another chart im looking at suggesting further down side, perhaps all the way into 28th, we made lower low and bounced on the bank bail out news, that was purely emotional, not technical:<br /><br />http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/2985/dowoct2011.pngAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-61203126596631568232011-10-05T08:31:23.802-07:002011-10-05T08:31:23.802-07:00I see the spot you are looking at in the chart wit...I see the spot you are looking at in the chart with the bounce in 2008. This time instead of crashing the support it'll bounce very sharply. It's clear from my cycle work. <br /><br />I really feel that we need to see a moment of panic though. We did not see that yesterday imo. Uneasy maybe, but it was not panic. As well there hasn't been any really "bad" news. A piece of significant news at a turning point is preferable. <br /><br />Financials have not followed through today. Bearish.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-37181400532786640202011-10-05T08:09:34.978-07:002011-10-05T08:09:34.978-07:00SC, you dont think we could be on the verge of the...SC, you dont think we could be on the verge of the waterfall here like in '08? back then we bounced before cliff diving ....<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&st=2006-01-02&en=2008-12-31&id=p46393682888&a=245329863&listNum=4Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-7100221100636052282011-10-05T07:04:59.190-07:002011-10-05T07:04:59.190-07:00I'll show the chart with the timelines.
The...I'll show the chart with the timelines. <br /><br />The key right now is to identify the bottom. It is possible we saw the bottom yesterday already, but in any case I still see weak spots tomorrow and until Oct 13/14th. So a rally would not build up steam until after that imo. In other words it is not a good idea to chase upside today.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-44984071999220652442011-10-05T06:28:58.989-07:002011-10-05T06:28:58.989-07:00The surprise is coming on the upside, but we need ...The surprise is coming on the upside, but we need to see a confirmed bottom first.<br /><br />The bounce yesterday was strong, but tomorrow looks weak.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-89745728489502150642011-10-04T23:54:11.572-07:002011-10-04T23:54:11.572-07:00SC,
After the 13 Oct "low". Do you see ...SC,<br /><br />After the 13 Oct "low". Do you see a 2 months plus relief rally till around Dec 11, and then a plunge in 2012 to new lower lows.Timerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06791098996226709854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-58894703837368467532011-10-04T16:53:48.618-07:002011-10-04T16:53:48.618-07:00SC,
I know you have spoken before about some big...SC, <br /><br />I know you have spoken before about some big surprises the market holds for the future. Given that we dipped under 1100 and came within striking distance of the 2010 lows, does your work show the major surprise to be for the upside or downside? Given the predominant bearish sentiment now it would make sense that a "surprise" would be to the upside but this same question a couple of months ago could have warranted a different response.PKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14438886077350225173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-78750623691939262302011-10-04T16:47:57.929-07:002011-10-04T16:47:57.929-07:00That bounce into the close was so powerful that it...That bounce into the close was so powerful that it makes a lot of sense to review in depth here so I am doing that now. <br /><br />In my cycle work this Thurs looks just as weak as Monday did. <br /><br />Those dates are not confirmed as a bottom, just dates that I have flagged for potential weakness. Weakness could also manifest as a higher low though for example. So bears particularly have to watch closely. Bottoms typically do sneak up.<br /><br />Let me review carefully first, and then I will address the issues in detail.<br /><br />Thanks.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-13652001080500004552011-10-04T15:20:40.354-07:002011-10-04T15:20:40.354-07:00Hi SC,
the view with an hard down day thursday an...Hi SC,<br /><br />the view with an hard down day thursday and a bottom for Oct 13 is confirmed even with this kind of bounce?<br />Thanks a lot.TheBlueMoonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16500315432292763120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-49524765559416935192011-10-04T13:38:42.238-07:002011-10-04T13:38:42.238-07:00I haven't really set firm targets, preferring ...I haven't really set firm targets, preferring to rely more on the timing aspect, and fine tune the price targets close to those dates. <br /><br />In this type of mkt I have found it typically better to just let things unfold and review the behaviour nearing the timing turn dates. I'll try to shed some light on pricing in advance whenever possible though. <br /><br />It will be helpful to see the next couple days of trading.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-62258504226025600312011-10-04T13:10:36.691-07:002011-10-04T13:10:36.691-07:00SC whats your target for the lows?SC whats your target for the lows?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-54010068589531715692011-10-04T13:04:47.198-07:002011-10-04T13:04:47.198-07:00What a bounce! The plan from yesterday has worked...What a bounce! The plan from yesterday has worked well:<br /><br />"1090 is a target for tomorrow with a decent bounce from there into Wed."SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-15531461772941913482011-10-04T12:39:52.001-07:002011-10-04T12:39:52.001-07:00It feels like gold should retest 1530's and si...It feels like gold should retest 1530's and silver 26's very soon. whats your take on this guys?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-19439576364820990492011-10-04T12:15:32.414-07:002011-10-04T12:15:32.414-07:00looks like today is extreme and reaching close to ...looks like today is extreme and reaching close to 27 so will wait for tomorrow how it reacts...Stockboomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02858305761023998639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-18169395426356911052011-10-04T12:12:47.703-07:002011-10-04T12:12:47.703-07:00Silver has been relatively quiet and sideways so I...Silver has been relatively quiet and sideways so I have just left it to watch and wait for a setup. I see now it is sliding a little, so a good time to review. <br /><br />Generally I would like to see an extreme on it to make a move.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.com