tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post2204089278954494846..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: TVIX - Premium and Extreme GAZ Bubble ExampleSChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-58599431028329490602012-02-26T17:30:16.067-08:002012-02-26T17:30:16.067-08:00Tomorrow is the big day for the drop. Question is...Tomorrow is the big day for the drop. Question is whether it drops to 1330. At this point 1290 looks like a pipe dream.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-66501963317033554782012-02-25T17:07:55.371-08:002012-02-25T17:07:55.371-08:00sheepgetslaughtered.blogspot.comsheepgetslaughtered.blogspot.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-26283723384352491492012-02-25T15:20:46.397-08:002012-02-25T15:20:46.397-08:00UH OH..............
Went over the charts. More th...UH OH..............<br /><br />Went over the charts. More than likely we turn down in the next two days (that may be after one more pop to 1375ish or right from here)<br /><br />BUT.................There is an outside chance of a ripper to about 1390ish. Normally I would give this about a 25-30% chance but being that I have no sell signal I have to raise it to about 45%.<br /><br />One thing I give very little chances of is 1328 on Monday.ckoreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01163819664255449052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-90032496476882785772012-02-25T13:11:26.836-08:002012-02-25T13:11:26.836-08:00One other point to make is that some may be tempte...One other point to make is that some may be tempted to short TVIX seeking to profit from an eventual contraction in the premium. This could be dangerous if TVIX bubbled the same as GAZ so make sure to do thorough due diligence.<br /><br />I wonder if shorts were attracted by the initial premium in GAZ, and this may have contributed to the GAZ bubble.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-1934528169153870652012-02-25T12:40:24.545-08:002012-02-25T12:40:24.545-08:00I'm debating what is the best approach, but ha...I'm debating what is the best approach, but have made no decisions yet. The premium could contract or expand under different situations. It has only been 3 trading days so far, and that makes it difficult to predict the behaviour. The premium did contract on Friday as TVIX was rising, but without seeing some more action, it is hard to say if this will be the case going forward. <br /><br />In the case of GAZ, the premium expanded rapidly, but there is no way to say if this will happen for TVIX.<br /><br />For all ETNs, it is important to review whether issuance is suspended, and if it is trading at a premium or discount before purchasing. Also it is important to review the current status while holding ETNs.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-23238543223839774232012-02-25T12:29:34.934-08:002012-02-25T12:29:34.934-08:00The equal time cycles that I use sometimes are sub...The equal time cycles that I use sometimes are subject to inversion. They can be highs or lows. <br /><br />In this case I am using my cycle analysis method which is a probability distribution method. The aim is to indicate if the behaviour on a given day looks positive or negative. In this case the 27th looks weak. It doesn't necessarily have to be a low though. I've seen cases where the high was first thing in the morning, and then the market sold off during the day. So in that case the day was negative, and it was the start of a decline. <br /><br />The first couple days of March at least look weak also. Let me look closer at around the 7th of March, and see how that looks around that date.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-90582670876055907972012-02-25T12:21:52.238-08:002012-02-25T12:21:52.238-08:00SC, do you think it is time to sell TVIX then buy ...SC, do you think it is time to sell TVIX then buy back UVXY to take the advantage of premium.<br /><br />Thanks!Choicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14854684553501176700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-18931255130049789022012-02-25T11:06:45.648-08:002012-02-25T11:06:45.648-08:00SC, I wonder whether your cycle methods are subjec...SC, I wonder whether your cycle methods are subject to inversion? I've noticed that some cycle techniques can correctly identify important dates, but an expected top sometimes turns out to be a bottom or vice versa. I don't know enough about your approach to know whether this may be possible.<br /><br />I ask because Feb 27th looks a lot more likely to be a high than a low. I have a cycle also showing a sharp rally from Feb 27th into early March (around March 7th), though I suspect this may have inverted.<br /><br />Thanks...Spudthorpehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14053052022741919186noreply@blogger.com