tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post1697000137506490058..comments2024-03-27T08:45:49.016-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: $SPX - Short Term UpdateSChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-69928875921022750632011-07-31T20:48:25.097-07:002011-07-31T20:48:25.097-07:00SC, any updates? Silver seems to be loosing steam....SC, any updates? Silver seems to be loosing steam..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-70040641140104079702011-07-29T14:45:59.561-07:002011-07-29T14:45:59.561-07:00Hi SC
Looking forward to your detail explanation ...Hi SC<br /><br />Looking forward to your detail explanation this weekend:<br />"""<br />I will show these charts and explain why these abrupt changes in detail on the weekend. Most important is that my target for Silver is going to $18.<br />"""<br /><br />Interested to know how you foresee $18 for silver? cause so far it seems to be hard to predict silver price. I actually thought this entire week event would have push silver way pass $40, but it been flat at $40 pretty much the entire week. For it to drop to $18, US debt ceiling must be raise and economy must be doing well. Or maybe a flash quick crash in silver price is all I can imagine so far. Your target of $18 that would be more than 50% retracement from current price, I really hope that happens, cause I want to add more silver bull then.<br /><br /><br />Thanks and have a greet weekend.Santahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12676163183934734551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-1014488112009029632011-07-29T12:26:08.222-07:002011-07-29T12:26:08.222-07:00It really is strange whats going on. It makes one ...It really is strange whats going on. It makes one question what the real agenda of Washington is.lixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09419814616861612503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-74997534807203097722011-07-29T11:46:31.076-07:002011-07-29T11:46:31.076-07:00I'll tell ya SC... I think a debt deal does no...I'll tell ya SC... I think a debt deal does not get done.<br />Too many divisions right now to reach a consensus.justmy02https://www.blogger.com/profile/04463799092640793834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-2749868904971643392011-07-29T11:36:37.387-07:002011-07-29T11:36:37.387-07:00I thought it was amusing in some ways, but also sa...I thought it was amusing in some ways, but also sad that Congress needs a panic to act swiftly. It says a lot about human nature and how it relates to the mkts. The cycles run the news, and not the news dictating the direction of the mkt. <br /><br />Point number 2. There is no panic - yet. With the weak opening this morning, I didn't feel any panic this morning. The panic is coming between now and Aug 10th imo.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-89399322819059580782011-07-29T11:26:14.256-07:002011-07-29T11:26:14.256-07:00interesting article SC.
the article has some chec...interesting article SC.<br /><br />the article has some check point, the market really isnt changing a whole lot, pretty flat consider how far along the bucket has been kicked. <br /><br />what your take on that article?Santahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12676163183934734551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-52715309103646186752011-07-29T11:06:52.779-07:002011-07-29T11:06:52.779-07:00Check this out:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43943482Check this out:<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/id/43943482SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-30546541014788054042011-07-29T10:57:25.324-07:002011-07-29T10:57:25.324-07:00I did say this yesterday, and confident that I hav...I did say this yesterday, and confident that I have the puzzle figured out now:<br /><br />"I'm debating that, and watching closely. A failure here may be possible - not confirmed yet. If that happens, 1280's could be next with a better bounce there."SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-91473273789812137892011-07-29T10:44:28.764-07:002011-07-29T10:44:28.764-07:00I think high probability Gold tops today.I think high probability Gold tops today.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-15211179946391895242011-07-29T10:36:27.340-07:002011-07-29T10:36:27.340-07:00This has implications for Silver/Gold. Something ...This has implications for Silver/Gold. Something really is bothering me about Silver. <br /><br />Silver topped first in April, with Gold topping weeks later. It is the same situation right now, and that really bothers me...<br /><br />The mkt never "likes" to be predictable, and "easy" is a particularly bad word when it comes to Silver. I think it is preferable that Gold tops first this time, and Silver last.<br /><br />That $40.30 level worked great as a reversal for SLV. I think Silver has some more quick downside on a deal announcement, but it does appear increasingly likely that it makes a final push to $43 or $44. <br /><br />I will show these charts and explain why these abrupt changes in detail on the weekend. Most important is that my target for Silver is going to $18. <br /><br />Sorry to flip flop, but I have to listen to what the mkt tells me. The timeline and mkt behaviour is telling me clearly. <br /><br />So may have a weekend/Monday debt deal and that is a great spot to short SPX, and cover the Silver to reshort higher.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-9910184143104231712011-07-29T10:35:14.416-07:002011-07-29T10:35:14.416-07:00Hi Sqwii
welcome back!
question about you menti...Hi Sqwii <br /><br />welcome back!<br /><br />question about you mention market break down hard next 2 weeks, are you talking about good time to short the hell out of spx?Santahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12676163183934734551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-3939012952300507262011-07-29T10:24:49.940-07:002011-07-29T10:24:49.940-07:00Hi SC
Just back from vacation , I bought ZSL (sho...Hi SC<br /><br />Just back from vacation , I bought ZSL (short silver) today which I think is a great opportunity as I think august could be pretty bad month for silver...<br /><br />I think markets could break down hard next 2 weeks from today as we plunge below MA(200) next , time will tell.Sqwiihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15802969120017633807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-50275647404617234322011-07-29T10:07:42.309-07:002011-07-29T10:07:42.309-07:00SC...where do u see silver?SC...where do u see silver?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-51370077914658464102011-07-29T09:36:38.544-07:002011-07-29T09:36:38.544-07:00This is important.
The debt deal is probably co...This is important. <br /><br />The debt deal is probably coming very soon (over the weekend?), but I still see in my cycles that there is more down to go. I suspect the deal may come out, the mkt bounce a little more, but then fall hard anyways. SPX may go as low as 1239. <br /><br />There still is no panic in the mkt. A bounce to 1315 SPX would have me looking seriously to short.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-91837739852305277322011-07-29T09:20:28.633-07:002011-07-29T09:20:28.633-07:00lix,
Yes, SC has been very accurate with his S&am...lix,<br /><br />Yes, SC has been very accurate with his S&P calls. I was just surprised he didn't short last Friday when it hit 1347 or so. If you go back a few weeks he was commenting shorting silver when it was 35-36. Silver is a completely different game now and wil be. Just thought he was preoccupied with silver. I very much appreciate all his comments and charts. Maybe my first post come off the wrong way. Good luck with all your trades everyone. Thanks for your work SC.fartninja33https://www.blogger.com/profile/15718266926887561917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-53491971264126336482011-07-29T09:05:35.371-07:002011-07-29T09:05:35.371-07:00InvestBB- I agree. As I said, eventually it will...InvestBB- I agree. As I said, eventually it will end that way. I just don't see it pushing down any further than we have in the near term. Maybe a multi month rally prior to a return to the downtrend. Nothing goes in only one direction. Going against the masses can be scientific enough. If everyone has already sold, who is left to take the other side of your trade? I do not have anything factual to give you passed that. Dollar cycles are also due for a big move up. This reasoning has always worked well in the past and is enough for me to take the tradeBlakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-19174986030451948782011-07-29T09:00:20.972-07:002011-07-29T09:00:20.972-07:00fartninja,
SCs spx calls have been pretty much sp...fartninja,<br /><br />SCs spx calls have been pretty much spot on. From his last post "1347 SPX target was hit exactly on Thursday, July 21st". I shorted some as well. Closed out today and now waiting for the debt ceiling resolution if there is one. As for slv, he has been calling the $40 range as a top or near a top for some time now. We shall see. <br /><br />Keep in mind that SC cyclical market analysis blog is just that, an analysis of the market. He posts his own trades and walks the walk. You dont have to follow him if you dont want to.<br /><br /> Good luck trading to you.lixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09419814616861612503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-50547284646500206022011-07-29T08:55:59.747-07:002011-07-29T08:55:59.747-07:00In fairness I have always said that PM's are a...In fairness I have always said that PM's are a summer short play, and yes it was too early to short. May/June were good months for me with Silver. Didn't get the timing right this time, and feel bad about that. Despite that, I am confident that the short PM play is one of the big trades for the year. I will be there when it happens, and we're in the final minutes. <br /><br />My SPX analysis was correct last week and did call the top at 1347 and the day as well. I talked myself out of shorting it because I noticed the financials were outperforming. My thinking at the time was that this may indicate one more push before it fell. The behaviour of the financials was (and still is) important for a different reason as I realize now.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-41822493231335306672011-07-29T08:54:26.100-07:002011-07-29T08:54:26.100-07:00SC....initially how far do you see Silver dropping...SC....initially how far do you see Silver dropping if the dept ceiling is raised?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-90372224472726398262011-07-29T08:46:07.150-07:002011-07-29T08:46:07.150-07:00Hi Blake
is there any base/fact on your long to t...Hi Blake<br /><br />is there any base/fact on your long to the dollar? beside going against the masses? <br /> <br />US is in huge debt, if they dont default now, it just means to me that they are kicking the bucket further. If they default now, it just means worst. Both logic points to lower dollar value.Santahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12676163183934734551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-86399744143738296072011-07-29T08:38:54.131-07:002011-07-29T08:38:54.131-07:00what happens when those concerns about a dollar cr...what happens when those concerns about a dollar crisis subside and 85% of those trading the dollar find themselves on the wrong side of the trade? How far does it move up before they realize they are on the wrong side of the trade? I am quite comfortable finding myself in agreement with the other 15%Blakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-60739524886187990472011-07-29T08:32:34.024-07:002011-07-29T08:32:34.024-07:00crisis in the world's reserve currency- it wi...crisis in the world's reserve currency- it will happen, but not yet, and not when 85% of traders are expecting it. I am long the dollar.Blakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08650600450661791461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-51966012720279839572011-07-29T08:20:11.649-07:002011-07-29T08:20:11.649-07:00SC,
Interesting comment on PM's weakness
in l...SC,<br /><br />Interesting comment on PM's weakness<br />in light of full blown crisis to the world's reserve currency.BPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09039238839789265594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-16562103485966460802011-07-29T07:52:03.180-07:002011-07-29T07:52:03.180-07:00Look at the miners, all are in red while PM is up....Look at the miners, all are in red while PM is up. PM may use a debt deal delay as an excuse for one more bull trap. This is kind of mindless bullishness<br />Gold look very scarycomathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13687670139956227213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-61528710668656684902011-07-29T07:46:56.743-07:002011-07-29T07:46:56.743-07:00Hey SC I see that you missed shorting the S&P....Hey SC I see that you missed shorting the S&P. A 60 point drop is a significant move. Were you so wrapped up in watching silver because you were way early on it? I see many people on here only trade when SC does. How many of you started shorting silver around $35? Blake and others kept asking and found out the hard way to stick with your own methods. You kept changing the silver charts every time it kept going up. I for one started shorting S&P last Friday and covered most of it today. Silver might be a decent short here over $40, not $35. What happened to a couple of Fridays ago with the silver plunge before the close and short silver immediately?!fartninja33https://www.blogger.com/profile/15718266926887561917noreply@blogger.com