Wednesday, November 28, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

In terms of the big picture, the sharp rally phase continues, and should trend higher for weeks to come.  There will be weak spots along the way though. 

The Deja Vu pattern suggests that SPX is likely to rattle up and down mostly within the top half of the pink fork for several more weeks.  There are spots above that could be tested soon.

As well, dips to test the pink midfork are probable in December.  This week could finish strong with possible weakness early next week.  

30min Chart

Monday, November 26, 2012

Silver Crash - SPY Deja Vu Cycle

History first:

September 23, 2011:

"This has been an historically awful day for precious metals.

Here’s just how grim the selloff in silver was today:
The $6.49, 18% decline to $30.05 an ounce (that’s the September contract) was the worst dollar loss
since January 22, 1980 and the worst percentage loss since April 27, 1987.

It was the second-biggest dollar loss in history and the fifth-largest percentage loss in history.
Silver has tumbled 26% this week."

Will 2011 Silver history rhyme/repeat with the SPY Deja Vu Cycle continuing through the phases? 

Wait and see in coming weeks/months....

Weekly Chart

Anatomy of the September 2011 Silver Crash:

Daily Chart

A closer look at SPY:
Daily Chart
A closer look at Silver:
60min Chart

Saturday, November 24, 2012

$SPX - Surprise Rally Update

From the geometry it is clear why SPX bottomed at the price level that it did.  This configuration should prove helpful now in defining support and resistance levels. 

The surprise rally phase commenced for SPX with strength, and price is nearing the first target area outlined in previous analysis.

A moderate dip to around the pink midfork is likely once the target zone above is tested.  SPX may rattle up and down several times to consolidate in the upper half of the pink fork before advancing much.            

2hour Chart

Monday, November 19, 2012

UVXY - Symmetry Update - Decline to #2

The symmetrical pattern continues to play out for UVXY.  The combination of forks with exact geometry contained price action nicely.  Sideways consolidation completed with a failure at multiple resistances.  Decline to #2 is anticipated to be underway.  It could take several weeks time to fully complete with bounces along the way down.

VIX did not spike last week, and that was an important clue to confirm the surprise rally for SPX. 

UVXY symmetry suggests to be prepared for a wild ride in December markets!  Once UVXY reaches #4 in the symmetry, then larger cycles come into the picture as will be explained...

60min Chart

"A comparison is being made between the white circles, and the symmetry suggests there is some downside coming for UVXY to #2."

60min Chart

Sunday, November 11, 2012

$SPX - Gradual Decline Phase Complete

The orange support from October 29th analysis was reached last week.  This is anticipated to be a very strong level of support.  Therefore, the gradual decline phase since mid-September should now be complete. 

A rally phase is the next step according to the big picture outlook for SPX.

Short term, a bounce to test just above the white trendline may occur shortly.  Ultimately the upper boundary of the turquoise broadening top formation may be reached during the big picture rally phase. 

2hour Chart

Sunday, November 4, 2012

$SPX - Surprise November Rally

There may be soft spots early next week still.  However, the gradual decline phase for SPX should transition into a strong short term rally phase soon.  

Positive short term cycles for November suggest that a surge up soon could be surprisingly strong.

While this short term outlook may seem positive, remember overall, in the bigger picture, the process is anticipated to be a broadening top formation that defines a major top.        

60min Chart

UVXY thoroughly tested resistance, but it did hold, and the fact that UVXY plunged last week is compelling evidence that SPX is setting up for a sharp rally on a short term basis. 

Notice that the turquoise and orange fork geometry match up exactly for UVXY.  There is interesting symmetry in place.  The symmetry should provide helpful insight into the next short term moves.

A comparison is being made between the white circles, and the symmetry suggests there is some downside coming for UVXY to #2.

60min Chart